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MLB DFS Lineup Study 4/13/2022

MLB DFS

Welcome to today’s MLB DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings as well as the popular 150 max tournament on Fanduel.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Welcome to day 6 of MLB Lineup Study.  Come join me, as well as some of the best minds in the business, in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-mlb channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

For the MLB lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the MLB Relay Throw 150 max and the MLB Four-Seamer 20 max tournaments on Draftkings and we are also looking at the MLB Squeeze 150 max tournament on Fanduel.  Please note, I am only looking at Main slates for each site.   

As we look at the season so far, you might want some tools to help you build for today.  Team Rise or Fall has made their lineup cores free for today!  See who our experts are leaning towards for today’s slate by clicking here https://teamriseorfall.com/mlb-dfs-cash-lineup-cores/

For today’s study, I changed some things up on the Draftkings side of things.  I am looking to revamp the Fanduel side also.  Let me know what you think!  I am looking for feedback, so feel free to leave me comments in the TROF Discord and let me know what you think could be added or subtracted, or just to tell me you love the content! 

Let’s get to the stats. Draftkings first, then scroll down for Fanduel. 

Last night the 2 winning lineups used 11 batters and 3 pitchers combined.    

Hitter Projections – Last night 11 out of 11 hitters had a projection over 5.  Total over 6 slates is 96%.  Last night 9 out of 11 hitters had a projection over 7.  Total over 6 slates is 71%.

Hitter Rating – Last night 11 out of 11 hitters had a rating over 50.  Total over 6 slates is 88%. Last night 6 out of 11 players had a Rating over 60.  Total over 6 slates is 49%.

Hitter 85% – Last night 9 out of 11 players had an 85% percentile rating of over 20. Total over 6 slates is 76%.

A or B – 7 out of 11 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 6 slates is 59%.

Hitter wOBA last 50 PA – 7 out of 11 hitters had a wOBA over .300 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 6 slates is 66%.  Hitter wOBA last 50 PA over .400 – 3 out of 11 hitters had a .400 wOBA over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 6 slates is 32%.

Hitter ISO over last 50 PA – 4 out of 11 hitters had an ISO of over .200 over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 6 slates is 44%.  4 out of 11 hitters had an ISO of over .250 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 6 slates is 38%. 

Stack size – Last night we saw a 5/3 and a Naked 5 stack from the winners.  So far this season we have seen stack sizes of all types winning tournaments.  See the chart at the right for the season long breakdown.

Stack Gap (Main Stack) – Last night the winners used a 1 gap and a 2 gaps in their stacks. 

Batting order of Main Stack – Last night the winners used 1,2,3,4,6 and 1,2,3,4,7 in their main stacks.  See the chart at the right for the season long totals of batting positions used in main stacks. 

Total Lineup Salary – Last night total lineup salary was $49,800 by both of the winners.  Total over 6 slates is crazy as 7 different salaries have been used.  I can tell you that 58% of winners have been over $49,500 while 25% of winners were between $49,000 and $49,500 and 17% of the winning lineups used below $49,000.

Pitchers Salary – Pitchers combined salary used was $16,100 and $14,300 by the winners.  Total over 6 slates is 50% used combined pitcher salary between $15,000 and $17,000, 33% used between $17,000 and $19,000 on pitchers and 17% used below $15,000 on their pitchers. 

Individual Pitcher Salary – Last night the winners used salaries of $8,800, $7,300, and $7,000 in their lineups.  Total over 6 slates for individual pitcher salary is 42% used between $8,000 and $10,000, 32% used between $7,000 and $8,000, 21% used above $10,000, and 5% used under $7,000.

Vegas Win % of Pitcher – The winning pitchers had Vegas Win% of 57.4, 54.8, and 40.2.  Total over 6 slates is in the chart below. 

Vegas Opp run total – The winning pitchers had Vegas Opponent run totals of 4.99, 4.36, and 3.55.  Total over 6 slates is in the chart below.

Pitcher K% – The winning pitchers last night had K% of 27.19, 23.86, and 20.9.  Total over 6 slates is in the chart below.  

Pitcher Opponent K% – All 3 pitchers had an opponent K% of between 20% and 25%.  Total over 6 slates is in the chart below. 

Total Lineup Ownership – Last night’s winners had 79.6 and 138.5 total ownership used respectively.  Total over 6 slates slates is 42% have used between 100 and 125, 33% have used between 150 and 175, and 17% were under 100, and 8% used between 125 and 150. 

Ownership – Last night the winners used 6 and 3 players under 10% owned respectively.  Over 6 slates at least 3 players under 10% were used in 92% of winning lineups. 

                                        DRAFTKINGS SEASON LONG TOTALS

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

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FANDUEL LINEUP STUDY

For Fanduel lineup study we are only looking at the winner of the MLB Squeeze 150 max tournament.  The winning lineup will always have 8 hitters and 1 pitcher.  Keep in mind, the numbers represent only players from the winning lineups. 

I will be updating the Fanduel side of the study soon also.  I want both of the studies to be easier to read for everyone.

Hitter Projections – Last night 6 out of 8 hitters had a projection over 9.  Total over 6 slates is 85%.  Last night 5 out of 8 hitters had a projection over 10.  Total over 6 slates is 65%.

Hitter Rating – Last night 8 out of 8 hitters had a rating over 50.  Total over 6 slates is 88%.

A or B – 5 out of 8 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 6 slates is 46%.

Hitter wOBA last 50 PA – 6 out of 8 hitters had a wOBA over .300 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 6 slates is 69%.  Hitter wOBA last 50 PA over .400 – 4 out of 8 hitters had a .400 wOBA over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 6 slates is 38%.

Hitter ISO over last 50 PA – 3 out of 8 hitters had an ISO of over .200 over their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 6 slates is 48%.  3 out of 8 hitters had an ISO of over .250 in their last 50 plate appearances.  Total over 6 slates is 42%.  BONUS – 31% of players have had a .300 ISO over their last 50 plate appearances. 

Utility Spot – Last night the winner used a C1B eligible player in the utility spot.  Total over 6 slates is 50% used a C1B, 33% used a 3B, and 17% used a SS elgible player. 

Stack size – Last night we saw a 4/3 stack used by the winner.  Total over 6 slates is 4/4 was used 33%, 4/3 was used 33%, 4/2 was used 17%, and “other” stacks were used 17%. 

Stack Gap (Main Stack) – Last night the winner used a 1 Gap in their 4 man stack, Total over 6 slates is 43% used 0 Gap, 29% used 1 Gap and 29% used a 2 Gap.   

Batting order of Main Stack – last night the 4 man stack used players batting 1,2,3,8 in the main stacks. 

Total Lineup Salary – Last night the total lineup salary was 33,500.  Total over 6 slates is 33% used $34,700, 17% used $34,900, and 17% used $34,000, and 33% used under $34,000. 

Pitcher’s Salary – Pitcher’s salary used was $7,600 by the winner.  Total over 6 slates is 67% used pitcher salary between $8,000 and $10,000, 16% used between $7,000 and $8,000 and 17% used over $10,000 for their pitcher. 

Vegas Win % of Pitcher – The winning pitcher had a 54.8% Vegas Win projection.  Total over 6 slates is 67% used between 50% and 60%, 17%. used above 60%, and 17% used below 50%. 

Vegas Opp run total – The winning pitcher had a 3.55 projected run total for their opponent.  Total over 6 slates is 50% under 4.0, 17% between 4.0 and 4.5, and 33% above 4.5.

Pitcher K% – The winning pitcher had a K% of 20.9.  Total over 6 slates is 33% between 25% and 30%, 33% between 20% and 25%, 17% above 30%, and 17% under 20%.

Pitcher Opponent K% – The winning pitcher had an opponent K% of 20.81%.  Total over 6 slates is 50% used between 20% and 25%, 33% between 25% and 30%, and 17% below 20%. 

Total Lineup Ownership – Last night’s winner had a 67.9 total lineup ownership.  Total over 6 slates is 50% used under 100, 33% have used between 100 and 125, and 17% have used between 125 and 150. 

Ownership – Last night the winner used 5 players under 10% owned.  Total over 6 slates is 50% used 4 under 10%, 17% used 2 under 10%, 17% used 5 under 10%, and 17% used 7 under 10%.

That is our look at last night and the season. As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-mlb channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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