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MLB DFS Lineup Study 5/7/2022

Top 4 MLB DFS Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo Fantasy Baseball Targets 9-1

Welcome to today’s MLB DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings as well as the popular 150 max tournament on Fanduel.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Welcome to day 30 of MLB Lineup Study.  Come join me, as well as some of the best minds in the business, in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-mlb channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

For the MLB lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the MLB Relay Throw 150 max and the MLB Four-Seamer 20 max tournaments on Draftkings and we are also looking at the MLB Squeeze 150 max tournament on Fanduel.  Please note, I am only looking at Main slates for each site.   

The Team Rise or Fall website has you covered for all things MLB, NBA, and NHL as well as NASCAR, MMA, and PGA!  Weekends mean one thing this time of year and that is NASCAR.  Today we want you to have the best chance to build a winning lineup so head on over to our NASCAR section and check out our NASCAR Infinity Series Cores for today.  You can click this link to take you there: https://teamriseorfall.com/nascar-xfinity-dfs-lineup-core-builds/ .   

We are going to do something different today.  Don’t worry, I will get back to the normal Lineup Study tomorrow and I will still have the charts you love updated below, but with the rainouts yesterday and the winners using crazy stacks (I see you 2/2/1/1/1/1 stack), I figured today would be a good day to chat. 

I would like to take a minute to talk about some thoughts I have had over the past week regarding Tournament Selection and Lineup Study in general.  First off, I would like to thank all of you, my readers, for your amazing feedback and your dedication to reading this article every day.  You truly are the reason I do what I do with this article.  That being said, we have an amazing discord with some of the best and smartest DFS players in the world.  Everyday I read what is in Discord and I use that to improve my DFS game.  There is something for everyone in these articles.  From the player who is just starting their DFS career to the most experienced player in the world, I bet there is a nugget of information here that can help you to not only cash but have a chance to win a tournament.  It is important to note, however, that this is a study.  It is intended to provide a snapshot of what the winners have done to win a tournament this season.  More important than the data is how to use it, and even more important than that is tournament selection.  The tournaments I am looking at and studying, I chose because they are the biggest and most popular tournaments on Draftkings and Fanduel.  The Relay Throw on Draftkings is a nice, big tournament, but to max the tournament is very expensive, as a matter of fact you need $2,250 to max this tournament.  Most of us, me included are not maxing this tournament nightly.  So why do I study it?  Because the people that are maxing it and winning it are considered the best in the industry and I want to see how they are building their lineups.  If I can learn from the best, I should be able to win against players that are not at that level yet. 

Something you should note is it takes a strong will to play in 20 max and 150 max tournaments every day. These tournaments are purposely built for most players to lose nightly.  When we win them, we win enough to keep us happy until our next win and that is enough for most people. 

The thought of playing $20 to put 20 lineups into the 20 max Solo Shot tournament on Draftkings to win $400 appeals to a lot of players, but have you ever really looked at what you are playing?  What I mean is have you ever spent the time to see how payouts are paid over a tournament?  For tonight’s main slate (May 7th, 7pm Main Slate), the Solo Shot pays 23.19% of its players with 10% of the prize fund going to 1st place ($400) and 29.75% going to the top 10 finishers.  For comparison, the $1 Mini Max is $150 to max enter and pays 22.99% of its players with 10% of the prize fund going to 1st place ($2,000) and 22.10% of the prize fund spread over the top 10.  Did you spot the difference?  Both of the tournaments pay out basically the same percentage of players, but the Mini Max pays out less of a percentage to the Top 10 which means their pay structure is more spread out and you don’t necessarily need a Top 10 finish to feel like you accomplished something. 

I realize I compared a 20 max to a 150 max tournament, but I wanted to show how a small difference can effect your earnings.  Let’s compare two 20 max tournaments.  As I stated, tonight’s Solo Shot pays 23.19% of its players with 10% of the prize fund going to 1st place ($400) and 29.75% going to the top 10 finishers. Tonight’s Quarter Jukebox is a $0.25 per entry 20 max tournament which is $5 total to enter.  The payout is to 23.96% of its players with 5% to 1st place ($150) and 16.17% going to the Top 10 finishers.  Comparing the two tournaments, the quarter entry tournament pays a bigger percentage of its players with a much more spread out payout structure.  The min cash is also 2x which means if you cash, you win at least $0.50 on your $0.25 entry.  For comparison, the $1 entry Solo Shot min cash is 1.5x which means if you min cash you are getting only $1.50 back.  This tells me that if I am bankroll building, I am better off playing the Quarter Jukebox instead of the Solo Shot.  If I am looking for the better return on a win, I am better playing the $1 Solo Shot as more of the money goes to first place.  I do want to point out though that the negative side is that if you play the $1 Solo Shot and you don’t win, it is going to be tougher to build your bankroll in that tournament. 

For single entry tournaments, we want to do the same exercise to find where we might want to be based on our DFS goals.  What is your goal?  Think about that as you read through these (I like charts so bear with me on this format, again, these are all Draftkings tourneys but the same applies on Fanduel):

$1 buy in Daily Dollar (1,189 entrants)  – Min cash 1.5x, pays 23.97% of its players, 10% payout to 1st ($100), and the top 10 gets 39% of the prize fund.

$5 buy in Chin Music (2,378 entrants) – Min cash 2x, pays 22.88% of its players, 10% payout to 1st ($1,000), and the top 10 gets 33% of the prize fund.

$25 buy in Skipper (352 entrants) – Min cash 2x, pays 19.03% of its players, 20% payout to 1st ($1,500), and the top 10 gets 54.67% of the prize fund.

$121 buy in Battery (413 entrants) – Min cash 2.07x, pays 23.97% of its players, 11.11% payout to 1st($5,000), and the top 10 gets 43.33% of the prize fund. 

This is an exercise you should be doing before entering a tournament, know exactly how the payout structure looks.  What happens if you min cash? What happens if you win?  What happens if you finish in the top 1%?  Know all of this before you enter a tournament.  If I am looking at the above and I have $5 I am willing to wager today, I would look at that $5 Chin Music as what I am entering, the min cash is better than the $1, it pays out 1% less people, but it has more entrants so more entrants will cash, the first place payout is a much higher dollar amount, and it is flatter as the top 10 only receives 33% as opposed to 39% in the $1. 

I also hope that as you look at the $25 Skipper, you noticed that although he min cash is 2x, it pays less than 20% of its entrants with a 20% payout to 1st and over 50% of the funds going to the top ten.  This is a less than ideal payout structure as it is very top heavy which basically forces you to finish in the top 10 to make any money. If I am playing a single entry today, this would be my last choice out of the four I showed above. 

I hope this helped a little bit today.  Truth be told, I needed to mentally have a break from my normal article structure, but I wanted to still bring to you some helpful topics that maybe don’t get discussed a lot.  Remember, play what you are comfortable playing, play only what you are willing to lose on any given slate and keep in mind the most important rule…have fun. 

As promised, the season long stats updated through last night’s slates are in the charts below. 

Thank you for reading this and we still have a long way to go this season, let’s make the most of it and lets all get paid!

Draftkings Season Totals

Do you want to have access to all of the tools Team Rise or Fall has to offer and get them in all sports? For new members, you can take $10 off of your first month when you use my promo code!  Click this link to subscribe and use promo code: Patkingpin to get $10 off your first month https://teamriseorfall.com/subscribe-now/

Fanduel Season Totals

That is our look at last night and the season. As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-mlb channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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