Pitching Breakdown

Kevin Gausman faces the Minnesota Twins, which is no walk in the park, especially in the playoffs. However, if Gausman is in top form, he could lead the slate in strikeouts. It’s worth noting that the Twins’ roster boasts a formidable 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, but they also possess a league-worst 26.7% strikeout rate. This sets the stage for Gausman to capitalize on his strikeout potential.

Tyler Glasnow finds himself in a challenging matchup against the Texas Rangers. Still, he stands out as the night’s premier talent. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Glasnow boasts a 3.08 SIERA over his 21 starts, and his 51.2% ground-ball rate is a career-high. When it comes to potential upside, you can’t go wrong with either of these two pitching aces.

In addition to Gausman and Glasnow, several other quality options are worth considering:

• Zack Wheeler ($9,600), PHI vs. MIA: Wheeler offers a balanced blend of form, favorable matchups, and a reasonable salary. He has delivered 40 or more FanDuel points in five of his last seven starts and brings valuable playoff experience. Wheeler has had success against the Marlins, except for Josh Bell. The Marlins’ lineup has struggled against him, with a collective .250 batting average and a .685 OPS, along with a 24.3% strikeout rate.
• Corbin Burnes ($9,800): Burnes had an up-and-down season but faces an average-hitting Arizona Diamondbacks team. While his underlying numbers might not fully support his salary compared to Glasnow, the Diamondbacks’ mediocrity against right-handed pitchers leaves the door open for a potential tournament-winning performance.
• Jesus Luzardo ($8,500), MIA at PHI: Luzardo presents an intriguing wildcard option for the Wild Card round. While he has shown flashes of brilliance mixed with some inconsistent performances, his dominance over key Phillies’ batters makes him an appealing choice. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, and J.T. Realmuto have struggled, combining for just 7 hits in 57 at-bats against him. Luzardo’s regular-season stats include a 3.69 SIERA, a 28.1% strikeout rate, and a 7.4% walk rate, making him a compelling value pick.

Hitting Breakdown

In DFS, hitting choices can make or break your lineup, especially on small slates like this one. It’s advisable to prioritize players with consistent performance rather than chasing high ceilings. Here are some hitters to consider:

• Christian Yelich ($4,000): Yelich has been a steady performer with a .378 wOBA against right-handed pitchers during the regular season. He posted a 138 wRC+, which was the highest on his team. Yelich has recorded hits in three consecutive games and hasn’t delivered a zero in fantasy points since September 3rd.
• Marcus Semien ($3,800): Semien is a bit more volatile but finished the regular season strong, hitting .282 with a .396 wOBA and a 153 wRC+. He also has a remarkable track record against Tyler Glasnow, going 4-for-9 with two home runs, a double, and a triple, resulting in an impressive 1.889 OPS.
• Edouard Julien ($3,000): Julien may not have the highest ceiling, but he’s shown an ability to draw walks, an attribute that can contribute valuable points. He walked three times in six plate appearances against the opposing starter, offering potential value in the right circumstances.
• Junior Caminero ($2,800): Caminero has been on a hot streak since his promotion, hitting safely in six of his last seven games, including a homer. He provides a rare upside at his salary and is worth considering if he’s in the Rays’ lineup.

On a four-game slate, every offense is in play, but the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays have particularly favorable matchups:

• Milwaukee Brewers: They face rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who has shown vulnerability to home runs due to a combination of a 22.3% strikeout rate, a 32.3% ground-ball rate, and hard contact. This sets the stage for Brewers’ hitters to exploit his weaknesses.
• Tampa Bay Rays: They go up against left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who has the lowest strikeout rate among the day’s starters. Right-handed hitters, in particular, have a chance to capitalize on his 4.20 xFIP and 40.4% ground-ball rate.

In conclusion, the MLB DFS Playoff Preview for October 3rd, 2023, provides a comprehensive overview of the top hitters and pitchers to consider for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. While the Wild Card round presents its challenges, strategic player selection can lead to success in DFS. Good luck with your lineup decisions!