Weather Check

Before we get into the player analysis, let’s talk about the weather. Clear skies in New York, hot and favorable for hitting. Atlanta is also sizzling, with a slight breeze blowing out. But, there’s an interesting note for the game at Wrigley Field. It’s a chilly 64 degrees for the Cubs as they host the Diamondbacks, and there’s about a 10 mph wind blowing in. Keep in mind, Wrigley Field is known for its wind impact, which can affect both pitchers and hitters.

Pitching Breakdown

Let’s kick things off with a look at the pitchers. We’ve got some intriguing options on this slate.

Max Freed (ATL): Freed is the priciest pitcher tonight, coming in at $10,600. He’s been solid with a 25.8% strikeout rate this season. However, be mindful that this comes from a relatively small 60.2 inning sample size. Looking back at Freed’s career, he typically sits around a 22-23% strikeout rate. Keep in mind; he missed some time this season due to injury. So, while he’s a reliable real-life pitcher, he’s not traditionally a high-strikeout guy. Still, he’s facing the Tampa Bay Rays, and at $10.6K, he’s a reasonable option.

Luis Castillo (SEA): Castillo is one of the top pitchers on this slate from a fantasy perspective. He boasts an impressive 26.8% strikeout rate and a 5.9% walk rate this season. Those numbers are strong, and his strikeout upside is evident. Castillo’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays might seem challenging, but at $10.3K, he’s a good value given his potential.

Eduardo Rodriguez (DET): Rodriguez is an intriguing option tonight. He’s priced at $9,900 and faces a Yankees team that’s been on a hot streak lately. However, the Yankees have struggled for a significant portion of the season. If you want to pivot away from the popular choices like Castillo and Freed, Rodriguez might be your guy. In tournament play, he could provide value.

Value Pitchers: If you’re looking for some cost-effective options, keep an eye on Ryan Pepio (LAD – $8.9K) and Javier Assad (CHC – $8.5K). Pepio, with a 26.4% strikeout rate and a 3.8% walk rate (though from a small sample size), is a viable option against the Marlins. Assad, though not a high-strikeout pitcher, benefits from favorable pitching conditions in Chicago and comes with a friendly price tag.

Stack ‘Em Up

Now, let’s talk about stacking strategies. On a small slate like this, pinpointing the right stacks is crucial.

Atlanta Braves: The Braves are probably the most obvious choice tonight. They’re going up against Adam Wainwright, who’s having a rough season with an 11.1% strikeout rate and a 8.1% walk rate. His 1.73 HR/9 and a 5.85 SIERA scream trouble. While the Braves are expensive, consider fitting in a few of their power hitters like Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Facing Braxton Garrett, the Dodgers should be another chalky stack. Garrett isn’t a terrible pitcher, but he’s not elite either. The Dodgers have a potent offense, and this could be a bounce-back game for them. Players like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith are top options.

Detroit Tigers: Looking for some value? The Tigers could provide that against Carlos Rodón. While Rodón has shown improvement lately, his overall numbers aren’t great. Keep an eye on budget-friendly Tigers hitters like Spencer Torkelson, Parker Meadows, and even Jake Rogers for his ISO against lefties.

Remember, the key is to balance your lineup with high-priced studs and value plays, especially in a smaller slate like this.

Dong Calls

Lastly, let’s make some Dinger Calls for those of you looking for that extra fantasy edge.

Austin Riley (ATL): Riley is on fire right now and faces a struggling Adam Wainwright. The conditions are ripe for him to go deep tonight.

Jake Rogers (DET): Looking for a longer shot? Jake Rogers has an impressive ISO against lefties. He’s a value play with some home run potential.

That wraps up our MLB DFS preview for Thursday, September 7th, 2023. Remember, always keep an eye on last-minute lineup changes and weather updates. Best of luck in your contests tonight!