MLB DFS has an four-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel, and a four-game late slate on SuperDraft. The main/late slate begins at 7:15 PM EST/4:15 PM PST on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.
We’re changing things up a little so instead of 5 MLB DFS picks, we’re going to focus on the Team Rise or Fall MLB DFS Study Hub. You can think of the Hub as a treasure map that can lead you to buried gold. Or in our case, the top spot in your contests.
I like to take a look at the “hot hitters” when I start my MLB DFS research.
If we go to the “Batter Trends” tab on the MLB Study Hub we can see three different time frames – 7 days, 14 days, and 30 days.
There’s plenty of debate over whether athletes/players get “hot.” There’s the hot hand theory in NBA, and for MLB I do believe recent play is an indicator of future results. Now, don’t accept what I’m saying blindly. MLB is a cruel beast so Mike Trout can easily go 0-4 and the 8th hitter can go 2-4 with two homeruns. But in general I like focusing on players that are playing well right now. I’ll be using seven days worth of information when I start sorting.
As we’ve done with over on our Twitch stream, let’s look at getting exposure to some hot hitters with a wOBA of over .400 and an ISO of over .200. The way we’re going to do this by sorting wOBA first. You’ll hit that down arrow underneath wOBA and set a minimum wOBA we want to see from our batters. I know what personally, I only want to see batters with a wOBA of over .399 (if you don’t include the . any just type in 399 your search will come up empty).
This will filter out any batter that has a wOBA under .400. As we do some digging, we learn that the league average wOBA is .320 and anything above .400 is considered elite.
Now let’s move on to ISO. ISO is the metric that measures raw power aka this is going to help you identify those home runs hitters. We are going to use the same process of hitting the arrow under ISO and setting a minimum sorting of .199. Again in learning a bit more about ISO, league average is .140 and anything over .200 is considered great.
Now filtering just those two areas this is what our .400 wOBA and .200 ISO with a minimum plate appearances of 14:
It’s a small slate but that doesn’t affect the results here. FOUR Yankees and FOUR Padres pop off in the numbers. We see that two Giants also make the cut. That’s where I’ll be starting my stacks for the day. What’s great to see is that even with the small slate, only three players are projected for double digit ownership on DK. And the three players come from three different teams. We can use the hottest players and the entire field won’t be using them? Sounds like a good deal to me.
One thing to point out with this method is that the data gets skewed a little with teams facing left-handed pitchers. Most pitchers are right-handed. It’s possible for a team to not face any lefties over a week. Or to face two lefties over two weeks. That means the plate appearances aren’t going to be high enough to pop with the way I’m filtering. Sorry, you’re going to have to do a little extra work if a team is facing a left-handed pitcher.
When it comes to pitchers I approach them like I approach quarterbacks in NFL DFS: I mostly want to roster the studs. OK, the player doesn’t have to be a superstar but there’s no need to reach for guys that are lowly projected and tend to be average at best. Pitching is pretty consistent so I want the guys that are consistently good. That doesn’t mean the pitchers I select won’t get blown up. Anything CAN happen, but I’m playing the probabilities and riding with guys that produce.
There are two places I look when I’m trying to decide on my pitchers for the evening. I like to look at the Vegas odds, and the Team Rise or Fall ratings for DraftKings and FanDuel. I’ll dig deeper and look at K% and I’ll check out how often the opponent’s strikeout. The Ks = cash for our purposes.
As we’ve learned from watching Donuts’ Twitch stream, the ownership of pitchers doesn’t matter. IT DOESN’T MATTER. Eat the chalk at the pitching position and get unique with your stacks.
There’s only four games so that gives us eight pitchers to choose from for our lineups. There are two pitchers I’m going to rule out due to rating and Win%. So now we’re down to six options. The top two pitchers look good and then things get a little dicey. My approach will be to “Round Robin” the top four pitchers for the most part. I’ll have less of a pitcher that Las Vegas isn’t expecting to win.
That’s everything for now! If you have any questions feel free to tag me in discord or hit me up on twitter @Eagsixcards
And remember… Together we rise!
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