Justin Steele – Chicago Cubs

Our top pick for Friday’s DFS action is the left-handed sensation, Justin Steele. He’s set to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second time in as many starts. In his previous encounter with them, Steele was nothing short of spectacular, tallying six strikeouts while conceding just one run over seven innings. His season-long performance has been equally impressive, boasting a 2.49 ERA, well-supported by a 2.91 FIP.

Why Steele is a Strong Pick:

• Matchup Favorability: The Diamondbacks have struggled against left-handed pitchers, ranking ninth-worst in OPS in this category. This bodes well for Steele’s prospects in this rematch.
• Consistency: Steele has been in excellent form, delivering five consecutive quality starts and allowing a mere five runs over 33.0 innings while striking out 39.
• Historical Success: He has a history of dominance against the Diamondbacks, holding them to a .196 batting average and a .476 OPS across 54 plate appearances.

While Steele’s price tag might be on the higher side, his consistent form and favorable matchup make him a worthy investment.

Tarik Skubal – Detroit Tigers

Tarik Skubal is our next pitching gem, and he’s on fire. In his last five starts, spanning 30.0 innings, he’s maintained a remarkable 2.70 ERA and an even more impressive 2.45 xFIP. Facing the Los Angeles Angels, Skubal has a solid chance to extend his hot streak.

Reasons to Consider Skubal:

• Angels’ Struggles: The Angels have been subpar against lefties in 2023, with a 23.1% strikeout rate and a middling wRC+ of 103.
• Betting Odds: Despite the Tigers being slight underdogs at -110, the low game total of 7.0 runs indicates a pitcher-friendly matchup.
• Reverse Splits: Skubal’s reverse splits make him formidable against both left-handers and right-handers.

With Skubal priced at $9,000 on DraftKings, he’s a dependable starter across all contest formats. His improved FIP this season suggests that he could outperform his ERA and rack up the strikeouts.

Seth Lugo – San Diego Padres

Seth Lugo of the San Diego Padres is another intriguing option for your DFS lineups. He’s been in fine form, maintaining a 2.54 ERA over his last five starts, spanning 28.1 innings. Despite a slightly concerning xFIP, Lugo’s above-average pitch modeling and the matchup against the Oakland Athletics make him an attractive choice.

Why Lugo Deserves Your Attention:

• Athletics’ Struggles: The Athletics have had their share of offensive woes against right-handed pitchers, boasting a 25.1% strikeout rate and a lackluster wRC+ of 89.
• Betting Odds: With the Padres heavily favored at -210 and an 8.5-run total, Lugo stands a good chance of securing a win.
• Recent Consistency: Lugo has been consistently delivering quality starts, except for a tough outing against formidable opponents like Houston and the Dodgers.

Lugo offers solid value, especially given his recent performances and the Athletics’ struggles at the plate.

Griffin Canning – Los Angeles Angels

Griffin Canning might not be a household name, but he’s having a career-best season. Despite his 4.24 FIP, Canning has improved his strikeout and walk rates. He’ll face the Detroit Tigers, a team that ranks 29th in runs scored and OPS.

What Makes Canning Intriguing:

• Improved Metrics: Canning’s career-high strikeout rate and lower walk rate indicate his development as a pitcher.
• Tigers’ Struggles: The Tigers’ offensive stats are far from impressive, making Canning a viable option, especially for GPPs.
• Ceiling Potential: Canning has demonstrated high fantasy point ceilings in recent starts, offering potential for significant returns.

While Canning’s price might not perfectly align with his name recognition, he presents a viable option to consider for your DFS lineups, especially in larger tournament formats.

Jon Gray – Texas Rangers

Jon Gray rounds out our list, despite his recent 5.47 ERA in the last five starts. His 4.17 xFIP suggests he’s been better than the surface stats indicate. Gray has also excelled on the road this season, boasting a 3.41 ERA in away games. Facing the Cleveland Guardians, who have struggled against righties, Gray could provide value.

Why Jon Gray Deserves a Look:

• Road Success: Gray’s strong road performance indicates he can handle the away matchup against Cleveland.
• Guardians’ Struggles: The Guardians rank 20th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in 2023, making Gray a favorable option.

Gray’s recent ERA might not inspire confidence, but his underlying numbers and the matchup against the Guardians make him an interesting dark horse for DFS contests.