Ryan Pepiot (LAD) at MIA

First up, we have Ryan Pepiot of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who has been nothing short of outstanding in his limited appearances this season. In 14.0 innings across three outings, which include two multi-inning relief appearances and one start, Pepiot has demonstrated his prowess on the mound.

His statistics, according to FanGraphs, are impressive: a 1.29 ERA, 2.82 xERA, 3.66 xFIP, 3.23 SIERA, 0.71 WHIP, 3.8 BB%, 26.4 K%, 31.1 CSW%, 103 Stuff+, 103 Location+, and 101 Pitching+. These numbers indicate he’s in excellent form.

Pepiot’s matchup tonight against the Miami Marlins looks promising. The Marlins rank 21st in wRC+ (90) and have a 21.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in 2023. Their performance over the past 90 days hasn’t been much better, with a 91 wRC+ and a 20.7% strikeout rate. Even at home, they struggle with a 98 wRC+ and a 19.8% strikeout rate. Betting Pros also gives the Dodgers a -125 advantage in this game, with a total of 8.5 runs expected.

Max Fried, ATL vs. STL

Our second pick for the night is Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves, who’s facing the St. Louis Cardinals. Fried has a strong track record against St. Louis and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start for over a month. He’s currently in excellent form, mirroring the success of the Braves as a team.

While we don’t expect the Braves to push their starters to their limits, Fried has a good chance of securing a win, especially against Adam Wainwright. He should comfortably log six innings, and with a strikeout per inning, he can provide excellent value for his discounted price on DraftKings.

Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs. DET

Next on our list is Carlos Rodon, who pitches for the New York Yankees against the Detroit Tigers. Rodon’s recent stats are a mixed bag, with a 2.87 ERA but less flattering estimators like a 5.85 xFIP and a 5.43 SIERA. However, diving deeper, we find some positives. His walk rate is at a reasonable 4.8%, and he boasts a 19.0% strikeout rate.

What’s particularly encouraging is his pitch modeling and swinging-strike percentage, both of which suggest he has the potential to shine in tonight’s start. The Tigers, on the other hand, have struggled against left-handed pitchers in 2023, ranking 26th in wRC+ (88) with a 22.3% strikeout rate. Recent performance isn’t any better, with a 27.2% strikeout rate over the last 30 days. When on the road, the Tigers have a dismal 23.9% strikeout rate. Moreover, the Yankees are strong favorites with a -164 line, and the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly 8.0 runs.

Javier Assad, CHC at ARI

Our final pick is Javier Assad, who takes the mound for the Chicago Cubs against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Assad has been a model of consistency this season, never allowing more than three runs in a game. In his last two starts, he’s been particularly impressive, conceding just one run over 15 innings while recording 14 strikeouts.

What makes him even more intriguing is his increased strikeout potential. The fact that he managed to keep runs off the board in Cincinnati, a notoriously hitter-friendly park, speaks volumes about his abilities. Despite his strong recent performances, Assad’s price on DraftKings has yet to catch up with his potential, making him an attractive option for your lineup.

Final thoughts

In conclusion, for your MLB DFS lineup on Thursday, 9/7/23, consider these top pitchers: Ryan Pepiot, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, and Javier Assad. They not only offer potential but also affordability, allowing you to build a strong, competitive lineup for your DraftKings and FanDuel contests.