Pitching Strategy for Monday

Choosing the right starting pitcher can make or break your DFS lineup. For Monday’s slate, one pitcher stands out from the rest, presenting a solid choice for both Fanduel and Draftkings platforms. But before we get into the details, let’s assess the overall landscape of starting pitchers for the day.

The Top Choice: Luis Castillo (SEA) at CWS

Luis Castillo has been showing decent form recently, making him a top contender for your pitching slot. Looking at his previous five starts spanning 32.0 innings, Castillo has maintained a 3.94 ERA, a 3.90 xFIP, and a 3.73 SIERA. His 1.06 WHIP, 5.5 BB%, and 26.0 K% indicate a well-rounded performance.

The matchup for Castillo is undeniably favorable. He’s up against the White Sox, a team that ranks 30th in wRC+ (83) and boasts a 23.5 K% against right-handed pitchers this season. The White Sox’s struggles are evident in their 29th ranking in wRC+ (77) over the last 30 days and a 24.6 K% during that period. Even at home, they have a lackluster 22.4 K% and a tied 28th ranking in wRC+ (87).

Betting odds also support Castillo’s potential dominance on the mound. The Mariners are favored with -172 odds, and the game’s total run projection is set at 9.0. With all these factors aligned, Castillo emerges as a strong candidate for the top pitcher of the day.

Assessing Other Pitching Options

While Castillo is the standout choice, let’s take a quick look at other pitchers on the slate:

Paul Blackburn (OAK) vs. KC

Paul Blackburn has recently exceeded expectations, and his underlying statistics back up his performance. Over his last five starts spanning 30.0 innings, Blackburn has maintained a solid 2.10 ERA and a 3.95 xFIP. While his xFIP isn’t exceptional, it’s acceptable given his salary.

The matchup against the Royals is also in Blackburn’s favor. The Royals rank 26th in wRC+ (87) and have a 23.0 K% against right-handed pitchers this year. When they’re on the road, their struggles are evident with a 26.5 K% and a 29th-ranked wRC+ (80). Despite being a slight underdog in betting odds (even), the game’s total is set at 8.0 runs, adding to Blackburn’s appeal.

Allan Winans, ATL vs. NYM

Allan Winans presents an intriguing option, especially considering Atlanta’s position in the division. With the division secured, Atlanta is giving Winans another shot at an MLB start. Winans has already showcased his potential, notably with a seven-inning shutout performance against the Mets.

The Mets, while not exceptional in runs scored, face a relatively untested pitcher in Winans. If he can deliver a solid five-inning performance, he stands a good chance of securing a win. Priced affordably at $6,500, Winans offers a promising p/$ projected SP, especially considering his recent 111-pitch outing against the same Mets team.

Exploring a Pitching Sleeper

Graham Ashcraft (CIN) at LAA

For those looking for a sleeper pick, Graham Ashcraft could be an intriguing option. Over his last five starts spanning 33.1 innings, Ashcraft has maintained a strong 2.43 ERA, even though his xFIP is at 4.28. His 1.02 WHIP, 49.5 GB%, and impressive pitch-modeling statistics (130 Stuff+, 105 Location+, 110 Pitching+) indicate the potential for success.

Facing the Angels, who rank 26th in wRC+ (84), Ashcraft has a chance to capitalize on their struggles. The Angels’ 27.7 K% over the last 30 days adds to Ashcraft’s appeal, making him an enticing option for GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools).

Final Thoughts

As you plan your MLB DFS lineup for Monday’s games, keep these top pitchers in mind. While Castillo stands out as the premium choice, other options like Blackburn, Winans, and Ashcraft offer valuable alternatives based on their matchups, recent performances, and potential for earning points in your fantasy lineup. Remember, success in DFS often hinges on a strategic blend of safe bets and calculated risks. So, as you assemble your roster, use this breakdown to guide your decisions and increase your chances of coming out on top. Good luck!