When it comes to Tuesday’s MLB DFS action, the pitching choices might not be the most enticing. The top-priced pitchers might not be your go-to options this time around. Instead, let’s delve into a strategic approach that could pay off.

The Prime Pick

Zack Wheeler, PHI at TOR ($11,600 DK, $10,800 FD)

Let’s kick off our journey by taking a closer look at Zack Wheeler’s potential. Pitching has been somewhat of a challenge on today’s slate, and it’s evident by the fact that Wheeler, priced at nearly $12,000, stands out as our top pick. Wheeler’s performance post All-Star break has been commendable, boasting a 3.12 SIERA, 28.3% K-rate, 11.4% Swinging Strike Rate, 2.0% BB-rate, and a .216 BAA. Notably, he’s achieved quality starts in all five outings during the second half of the season.

Facing off against the Toronto Blue Jays might not be the most obvious choice, but there’s a compelling angle here. The absence of Bo Bichette in their lineup has leveled the playing field. Post-break, the Blue Jays have shown a 22.2% K-rate against right-hand pitching, coupled with a 99 wRC+, .312 wOBA, and a .387 SLG. Wheeler’s intriguing split stats further enhance his appeal. He boasts a 32.8% K-rate against right-handed hitters this season, spiking to an impressive 42.3% K-rate in his last 30 days.

Considering the Blue Jays are likely to feature multiple right-handed batters, Wheeler’s potential skyrockets. While not a perfect choice, Wheeler emerges as the most viable option for the night. A calculated gamble on Philadelphia Phillies’ ace Zack Wheeler could pay dividends in tonight’s DFS lineup.

Navigating Other Picks

Nick Pivetta (BOS) at WAS

Nick Pivetta has been hitting his stride, both as a starter and bulk reliever. Over the last six appearances, which include two starts, he has maintained an impressive 2.54 ERA, 2.87 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, 6.5% BB-rate, and a striking 36.4% K-rate. Pivetta’s recent performance combined with a favorable matchup against the Washington Nationals makes him a solid choice. The Nationals struggle against righties, ranking tied for 24th in wRC+ and 20th in wRC+ at home. The Red Sox’s odds at -175, coupled with a game total of 9.0 runs, add to Pivetta’s appeal.

Bobby Miller (LAD) vs. MIL

Despite the slight gap between his ERA and xFIP, Bobby Miller’s recent pitch modeling suggests promise. With a 2.84 ERA over his last five starts, Miller’s performance has been commendable. The matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers further enhances his prospects. The Brewers have struggled against righties, ranking 24th in wRC+. Additionally, their 23.3% K-rate against right-handers is promising. The Dodgers’ strong odds at -210 and a game total of 9.0 runs make Miller a viable option.

Zack Littell (TB) at SF

Zack Littell’s transition from relieving to starting has been noteworthy. Despite not being a strikeout machine, Littell’s knack for hitting spots and sequencing has contributed to his success. In his previous five appearances, spanning four starts, he boasts a 2.42 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, 1.1% BB-rate, and an 18.7% K-rate. Littell’s cost-effective salary makes him an intriguing option against his former employer, the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have struggled against righties, ranking 29th in wRC+. Their 26.2% K-rate in the last 30 days adds to Littell’s allure.

Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) vs. PHI

Yusei Kikuchi’s recent performance indicates promise, with a 1.24 ERA over his last five starts. While his ERA estimators suggest a potential regression, Kikuchi’s ability to strike out batters is noteworthy. Facing the Philadelphia Phillies, who have a 25.2% K-rate against lefties in 2023 and a 24.9% K-rate on the road this season, could work in Kikuchi’s favor. The betting odds of -105 for the Blue Jays and a game total of 8.0 runs make Kikuchi an interesting option.

Closing Thoughts

As we delve into Tuesday’s MLB DFS pitching options, the landscape presents both challenges and opportunities. Zack Wheeler emerges as a solid choice despite the high price tag, given his recent performance and the matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. Nick Pivetta, Bobby Miller, Zack Littell, and Yusei Kikuchi also present compelling cases, each with their own strengths and potential advantages. Careful consideration of the matchups, recent form, and betting odds can help you make the best choices for your DFS lineup. Happy roster-building!