MLB Lineup Study Breakdown 5/13/2022
Welcome everyone to the first in a line of Members only MLB DFS lineup study breakdown articles. For this article, I am taking the free to all lineup study article and I am breaking it down so that our members get a nice easy, quick snapshot of what the trends are in the MLB DFS season so far. This article will evolve and may not be a daily article, but I hope to provide some extra material for our members who are looking towards the trends to help them make lineups. I do hope to add the slate breakdown charts into my next one, but for now, we are looking at the season as a whole.
MEMBERS ONLY BONUS – I studied the winners of the $4 20max tournament on Draftkings to see if fading the top owned stack was the right move. I have looked at 16 slates so far. Of those, the highest projected owned stack was the main stack 4 times (25%) and the secondary stack 2 times (12.5%). Safe to say that fading the top projected owned stack will be beneficial more times than it will hurt you. Leverage is key in MLB. We have seen how that works in Discord many times, this is the data behind it.
Let’s get to the stats. Draftkings first, then scroll down for Fanduel.
Draftkings Season Totals
Let’s Look at the chart above. As you can see, I really cut down on the number of categories you are looking at. You can also see I highlighted some of the trends I am looking at when I am making the study. A lot of the stats on the main lineup study are baked into the Team Rise or Fall ratings and projections so I really wanted to focus on what we can control when we build. I am not going to go over every category, but I wanted to highlight what I am seeing.
What sticks out to me!
Hitter projections greater than 5 – 93% of all hitters so far in winning lineups have had a projection over 5. Out of 427 players I have studied, only 30 of them were under 5 in the winning lineups. The number drops off between 5 and 7, however I am noticing as the season is progressing, higher projected hitters are creeping into lineups more often. I am keeping my eyes on that.
Hitter rating over 50 – 83% of all hitters so far in winning have a rating of 50 or above. This is another stat that is dialed in right now. An important note here is at the beginning of the year, this number was much lower. As more data emerges from the current season, I expect this to jump to over 90%.
Hitter 85 Percentile over 20 – I cannot stress enough how a number like 62% is misleading right now. This trend is also improving with more data, and it is another one I can see being much higher later in the season.
A/B Projected Tier and Value Tier Players – One of the greatest editions to the hub in my opinion. Another one that will probably be 80% or above as the data improves. Pay attention to these columns when building lineups.
Pitcher Stats
I have said this in Discord many times, the pitcher trends I am seeing have improved my DFS overall performance especially when it comes to picking a pitcher pool.
Vegas Win% of pitchers – 82% of the time a pitcher favored to win a game has made the winning lineups. To put this a different way, only 26 of 144 pitchers in winning lineups so far have had a Vegas Win% under 50%.
Pitcher K% – Folks. Strikeout pitchers. Play them. 91% of all pitchers in winning lineups have a K% of 20% or above with 63% of all winning pitchers above 25%. Play the pitchers who strike the batters out.
Fanduel Season Totals
What sticks out to me!
I realize some of these might be the same write up as Draftkings, but the reasoning is similar and some people will skip Draftkings to get to Fanduel.
Hitter projections greater than 9 – 76% of all hitters so far in winning lineups have had a projection over 9. I point this out because this number is rising every day. I could easily see this 76% becoming 80-85% by the All-Star break.
Hitter rating over 50 – 84% of all hitters so far in winning have a rating of 50 or above. This is another stat that is dialed in right now. An important note here is at the beginning of the year, this number was much lower. As more data emerges from the current season, I expect this to jump to over 90%.
Hitter 85 Percentile over 20 – 77% over 20 is good, but I expect this number to be better and quick. So much so, I might actually add 25 as a data point here. Let’s see how this looks in the future.
A/B Projected Tier and Value Tier Players – One of the greatest editions to the hub in my opinion. Another one that will probably be 80% or above as the data improves. Pay attention to these columns when building lineups.
Utility Spot – Fanduel loves their utility spot. C1B and OF love being in it. Limit your focus to those spots, they are in winning lineups 83% of the time. Note here, the C1B is actually a nice mix of C and 1B so far. I wouldn’t separate like Fantasy Cruncher has done. Keep it as both for now.
Salary – A minimum isn’t something I ever thought I would see in MLB, but 89% of winners have been above $34,000. Do with that as you will.
Pitcher Stats
Vegas Win% of pitchers – 81% of the time a pitcher favored to win a game has made the winning lineups.
Vegas Opp Run Total – 86% of the time the winning pitcher has been 4.0 or below in this category. This means Vegas doesn’t think the pitcher’s opponent will score more than 4 runs. Use this in conjunction with the win % and you can find some gems to include in your pitcher pool.
Pitcher K% – Folks. Strikeout pitchers. Play them. 94% of all pitchers in winning lineups have a K% of 20% or above with 74% of all winning pitchers above 25%. Play the pitchers who strike the batters out.
Pitcher Salary – More important on Fanduel since there is only one pitcher. 86% of pitchers in winning lineups have been $8,000 or above.
As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-mlb channel. I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.
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