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MLB Lineup Study Breakdown 5/16/2022

Top 4 MLB DFS Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo Fantasy Baseball Targets 9-1

Welcome everyone to the Members only MLB DFS lineup study breakdown articles.  For this article, I am taking the free to all lineup study article and I am breaking it down so that our members get a nice easy, quick snapshot of what the trends are in the MLB DFS season so far.  This article will evolve and may not be a daily article, but I hope to provide some extra material for our members who are looking towards the trends to help them make lineups. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: I added more charts with slate size breakdowns in each section.  I am still referencing the full season in the write up section though. 

Let’s get to the stats. Draftkings first, then scroll down for Fanduel.

Draftkings Season Totals

Let’s Look at the charts above.  As you can see, I really cut down on the number of categories you are looking at.  You can also see I highlighted some of the trends I am looking at when I am making the study.  A lot of the stats on the main lineup study are baked into the Team Rise or Fall ratings and projections so I really wanted to focus on what we can control when we build.  I am not going to go over every category, but I wanted to highlight what I am seeing.

What sticks out to me!

Hitter projections greater than 5 – 93% of all hitters so far in winning lineups have had a projection over 5.  This means that of all of the players in winning lineups this season, 93% of them have had a projection over 5 on the Study Hub.  That means out of 468 hitters in winning lineups, 437 have had projections over 5.  The number drops off between 5 and 7, however 65% of all hitters have had a projection over 7. 

Hitter rating over 50 – 85% of all hitters so far in winning lineups have a rating of 50 or above.  This is another stat that is dialed in right now.  An important note here is at the beginning of the year, this number was much lower.  As more data emerges from the current season, I expect this to jump to over 90%. 

Hitter 85 Percentile over 20 – I cannot stress enough how a number like 64% is misleading right now.  As a matter of fact, in my last members only article, this number was at 62%.  This trend is also improving with more data, and it is another one I can see being much higher later in the season.

A/B Projected Tier and Value Tier Players – One of the greatest editions to the hub in my opinion.  66% of all hitters in winning lineups had either an A or a B rating in EITHER the Projected Tier or Value Tier rankings.  Another one that will probably be 80% or above as the data improves.  Pay attention to these columns when building lineups. 

Pitcher Stats

I have said this in Discord many times, the pitcher trends I am seeing have improved my DFS overall performance especially when it comes to picking a pitcher pool. 

I added in Pitcher Projection and Pitcher Rating from the hub in the charts today. 

Pitcher Projection – 86% of all pitchers used have had a projection of 13 or above.  Don’t try and force a low projected pitcher in to save some salary.

Pitcher Rating – 92% of all pitchers used in winning lineups had a rating of 50 or above and above that 73% of all pitchers used in winning lineups had a rating of 60 or above.  High rated, high projected pitchers are performing so far in the year.  Again, don’t get cute right now.

Vegas Win% of pitchers – 83% of the time a pitcher favored to win a game has made the winning lineups. Another stat which saw a slight improvement since the last members only article.  Vegas might be getting dialed in also. 

Pitcher K% – Folks.  Strikeout pitchers.  Play them.  91% of all pitchers in winning lineups have a K% of 20% or above with 66% of all winning pitchers above 25%.  I will keep this here as long as I need to.  Play the pitchers who strike the batters out.

Fanduel Season Totals

What sticks out to me!

The first thing that sticks out to me is it seems Fanduel follows these trends better than Draftkings.  I see higher percentages used in all of the right areas on Fanduel. 

I realize some of these might be the same write up as Draftkings, but the reasoning is similar, and some people will skip Draftkings to get to Fanduel.

Hitter projections greater than 9 – 77% of all hitters so far in winning lineups have had a projection over 9.  I point this out because this number is rising every day.  I could easily see this 76% becoming 80-85% by the All-Star break. In fact, it already crept from 76% to 77% since the last article.

Hitter rating over 50 – 84% of all hitters so far in winning have a rating of 50 or above.  This is another stat that is dialed in right now.  An important note here is at the beginning of the year, this number was much lower.  As more data emerges from the current season, I expect this to jump to over 90%. 

Hitter 85 Percentile over 20 – 78% over 20 is good, but I expect this number to be better and quick.  Still thinking about adding 25 as a data point here.  Let’s see how this looks in the future. 

A/B Projected Tier and Value Tier Players – 64% as of this writing.  One of the greatest editions to the hub in my opinion.  Another one that will probably be 80% or above as the data improves.  Pay attention to these columns when building lineups. 

Utility Spot – Fanduel loves their utility spot.  C1B and OF love being in it.  Limit your focus to those spots, they are in winning lineups 82% of the time.  Note here, the C1B is actually a nice mix of C and 1B so far.  I wouldn’t separate like Fantasy Cruncher has done.  Keep it as both for now. 

Salary – A minimum isn’t something I ever thought I would see in MLB, but 90% of winners have been above $34,000.  Do with that as you will.

Pitcher Stats

I added in Pitcher Projection and Pitcher Rating from the hub in the charts today.

Pitcher Projection – Pitchers projected 25 or above are in winning lineups 90% of the time!  Pitchers projected 30 or above show up in winning lineups 67% of the time.  Don’t get cute at pitcher, especially on Fanduel!

Pitcher Rating – We fnally see a 100% trend and it is one I love.  100% of the winning lineups have had a pitcher with a Rating of 55 or above.  100% of the time.  That is every time.  Hint hint.  OH and 84% of the time the rating is 60 or above.  Don’t. Get. Cute. With. Pitchers. On. Fanduel!

Vegas Win% of pitchers – 82% of the time a pitcher favored to win a game has made the winning lineups. 

Vegas Opp Run Total – 87% of the time the winning pitcher has been 4.0 or below in this category.  This means Vegas doesn’t think the pitcher’s opponent will score more than 4 runs.  Use this in conjunction with the win % and you can find some gems to include in your pitcher pool. 

Pitcher K% – Folks.  Strikeout pitchers.  Play them.  95% of all pitchers in winning lineups have a K% of 20% or above with 76% of all winning pitchers above 25%.  Play the pitchers who strike the batters out.  By the way, both of those percentages went up since the last article.

Pitcher Salary – More important on Fanduel since there is only one pitcher.  87% of pitchers in winning lineups have been $8,000 or above.

That is our look at last night and the season. As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-mlb channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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