MLB Lineup Study Breakdown 5/18/2022
Welcome everyone to the Members only MLB lineup study breakdown article. For this article, I am taking the free to all lineup study article and I am breaking it down so that our members get a nice easy, quick snapshot of what the trends are in the MLB DFS season so far. This article will evolve and may not be a daily article, but I hope to provide some extra material for our members who are looking towards the trends to help them make lineups.
Everyday I look at data and every day I learn something new. I have been playing DFS for almost 10 years now. I still learn. I still look for advice that will make me better. I use stats like I have in my lineup studies to make my DFS game better. This doesn’t mean that every stat I am studying becomes another step in my process. Some of them are “good to knows” so that when the time comes for me to build a lineup and I need to choose between players, I am already prepared to make good decisions based on data. That is how I am wired. That is how I think. That doesn’t mean that you think the same way. Use the data how you want to. Try and find your process. Use all of the tools that you want to use or none of them, the beauty of DFS is that it isn’t a team sport, it is an individual contest where you are looking to be better than every single other person who enters. How you get there is totally up to you and you alone. We are here to help you in Discord, to get you to a place where you are comfortable every night building your lineups. Come in, ask questions if you need to and then use them to shape your process. At the end of the day, your goal is to be better than the other players. It isn’t to be exactly like them.
Let’s get to the stats. Draftkings first, then scroll down for Fanduel.
Draftkings Season Totals
What sticks out to me! – Today let’s focus on slate size differences for hitters and stacks
I have slate sizes broken down to all slates, 5-9 game slates, and 10+ game slates.
Hitter projections greater than 5 – Really no difference here, 93% or 94% in all three slates sizes. Hitter rating over 50 – Again no difference here.
Hitter 85 Percentile over 20 – This is where I start seeing a difference. For slates 5-9 games, the 85% over 20 players are used 62% of the time while slates over 10 games 85% over 20 players are used 74% of the time.
A/B Projected Tier and Value Tier Players – Let’s couple this with the 85% numbers and we see the same differences, A/B projected players are used 62% of the time in 5-9 game slates and 75% in 10+ game slates.
Let’s think about this a second, on a bigger slate, there are more players, which means more good players, which means the percentile and A/B ratings are going to be more of a factor. What I didn’t tell you above is that on larger slates, higher projected and higher rated players are used more. On 5-9 game slates 62% of players were projected over 7 while 41% had a rating of over 60. When we look slates with 10 or more games the numbers for both categories jump a bit, 5-9 game slates 76% of players were projected over 7 while 56% of players had a rating over 60.
When we look at all of this together, we see that on larger slates, the stars stand out more. Look for those higher rated and higher projected players on larger slates.
Stack Stats
I love when I see things jump out at me. Get your pen and paper out, this is going to be something you write down.
On slates with 5-9 games on them, 70% of main stacks 3 man or higher had a Vegas Implied Run Total of 4.0 and above and 75% of main stacks 3 man or higher had a Hub Stack Rating of 55 or above.
On slates with 10 or more games the numbers jump significantly, 96% of main stacks 3 man or higher had a Vegas Implied Run Total of 4.0 or above while 91% had a Hub Stack Rating of 55 or above AND 82% had a Hub rating of 60 or above!
Small note: on 10+ game slates, only 50% of the time was a 5 man stack of any kind in the winning lineups.
Fanduel Season Totals
What sticks out to me! Today let’s focus on slate size differences for hitters and stacks
Just like on Draftkings, we see that on larger slates, the higher projected and higher rated hitters are used more often. I did the dramatic thing in the Draftkings section, so I am getting right to the stats here.
Hitter Projection – On 5-9 game slates, hitters with a projection over 10 are used 55% while on 10 or more game slates, hitters with a projection over 10 are used 65% of the time.
Hitter Rating – On 5-9 game slates, hitters with a rating over 60 are used 45% of the time while on 10 or more game slates, hitters with a rating of 60 are used 60% of the time.
Hitter 85 Percentile over 20 – For slates 5-9 games, the 85% over 20 players are used 71% of the time while slates over 10 games 85% over 20 players are used 92% of the time.
A/B Projected Tier and Value Tier Players – Let’s couple this with the 85% numbers and we see the same differences, A/B projected players are used 58% of the time in 5-9 game slates and 78% in 10+ game slates.
Again, the more games on a slate, the higher percentage chance the better players in the league are going to be in the winning lineups.
Stack Stats
I love when I see things jump out at me. Fanduel friends, get your pen and paper out, this is going to be something you write down.
On slates with 5-9 games on them, 59% of main stacks 3 man or higher had a Vegas Implied Run Total of 4.0 and above and 62% of main stacks 3 man or higher had a Hub Stack Rating of 55 or above.
On slates with 10 or more games the numbers jump significantly, 95% of main stacks 3 man or higher had a Vegas Implied Run Total of 4.0 or above while 84% had a Hub Stack Rating of 55 or above AND 53% had a Hub rating of 60 or above (compared to only 19% on 5-9 game slates)!
That is our look at last night and the season. As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-mlb channel. I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.
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