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MLB Lineup Study Breakdown 5/20/2022

MLB DFS

Welcome everyone to the Members only MLB lineup study breakdown article.  For this article, I am taking the free to all lineup study article and I am breaking it down so that our members get a nice easy, quick snapshot of what the trends are in the MLB DFS season so far.  This article will come out on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, but I hope to provide some extra material for our members who are looking towards the trends to help them make lineups. 

Ever hear of the Winchester House?  Not the movie, but the house itself and its history.  Look it up if you haven’t such a weird and truly interesting story.  Basically Sarah Winchester wouldn’t stop building her house.  For 38 years she continuously had construction workers constantly adding and improving her house until her death when there were 160 rooms, 10,000 windows, 2,000 doors, 52 skylights, and 13 bathrooms.  I look at lineup study and lineup study breakdown the same way, I am constantly building and adding until someone tells me to stop.  I am at a point right now where I am looking to add again, which is funny because not 5 days ago I told myself I was at a point where I have everything I wanted in the articles.  I have ideas, many ideas, if I find the time to add these ideas, lineup study will only get better.  Let’s keep a good thing going and let’s evolve and add and keep building.  I look forward to the future of the breakdown articles. 

Let’s get to the stats. Draftkings first, then scroll down for Fanduel.

Draftkings Season Totals

What sticks out to me! – Tonight’s Slate

Tonight is scheduled for 12 games before weather and snow (what?) takes a game or two out, so let’s look at the 10+ games chart and see some of the big trends.

Hitter projections greater than 5 – 94% of all hitters used in slates of 10 or more have had a projection greater than 5. 

Hitter rating over 50 – 84% of all hitters used in slates of 10 or more have had a rating over 50. 

Stacks – Vegas Implied Run Totals – 96% of all of the main stacks of 3 or more hitters have had a Vegas Implied Run Total of 4.0 or more.  If there are 20+ teams on a slate, a good number of them will be implied to be 4 or more runs.  Don’t get cute and use a sub-par team on a big slate like this. 

Hub Stack Ratings – Same concept here, 91% of the main stacks in the winning lineups have had a Stack Rating in the Study Hub of 55 or above.

Players Under 10% Owned – On big slates we see 91% of all winning lineups have had at least 3 players under 10%.  Don’t let this stat fool you though, on a big slate, this will mostly happen naturally. 

Pitchers TROF Rating – 93% of the time the winning pitchers have had a rating from the Study Hub of 55 of above.  Use the good pitchers.

Vegas Win% of Pitchers – 93% of the time the winning pitchers had a Vegas Win% of 50% or more.  In other words, if Vegas thinks pitchers are going to win, we should probably listen.

Vegas Opposing Team Run Total – 89% of winning pitchers have had an opponent Vegas run total of 4.0 or under. 

Pitcher K% – 83% of all winning pitchers have a K% of 20 or above in the Study Hub.

Pitcher thoughts – If I am using this data to make a pitcher pool, I want pitchers predicted to win their game with opponent run totals under 4 and a rating from the hub above 55 and a K% of above 20.  That should make for a pretty impressive pitcher pool.

Fanduel Season Totals

What sticks out to me! Tonight’s Slate

Just like on Draftkings, Tonight is scheduled for 12 games before weather and snow (what?) takes a game or two out, so let’s look at the 10+ games chart and see some of the big trends.  

Hitter Rating – On large slates, hitters with a rating of 50 or above have been used 96% of the time in winning lineups.

Hitter 85% over 20 – 92% of the hitters in winning lineups on large slates had an 85th percentile projection of 20 or more.  This is based on a simulation model and on Fanduel has been very dialed in especially. 

Stacks – Vegas Implied Run Totals – 95% of all of the main stacks of 3 or more hitters have had a Vegas Implied Run Total of 4.0 or more.  If there are 20+ teams on a slate, a good number of them will be implied to be 4 or more runs.  Don’t get cute and use a sub-par team on a big slate like this. 

Hub Stack Ratings – Same concept here, 84% of the main stacks in the winning lineups have had a Stack Rating in the Study Hub of 55 or above.

Total Lineup Salary – 100% of all winning lineups I have looked at in the 10 or more game slate range had a salary of $34,000 or higher.  Need me to repeat that?  Ok.  100% of all winning lineups I have looked at in the 10 or more game slate range had a salary of $34,000 or higher.

Pitcher TROF Projection – On large slates, 100% of the time the winning lineup pitcher had a projection of 25 or above.  100%!!!  Need more?  87% of the time the winning lineup pitcher had a projection of 30 or above.

Pitcher TROF Rating – On large slates, 100% of the time the pitcher in the winning lineup has a rating of 50 or above.  Yup, another 100% number.  By the way, 85% of the time the winning lineup pitcher was 60 or above for their rating.

Pitcher Salary – 93% of the time the pitcher in the winning lineup had a salary of $8,000 or above. 

Vegas Win% of Pitchers – 93% of the time the winning pitchers had a Vegas Win% of 50% or more.  In other words, if Vegas thinks pitchers are going to win, we should probably listen.

Vegas Opposing Team Run Total – 93% of winning pitchers have had an opponent Vegas run total of 4.0 or under. 

Pitcher K% – 100% of all winning pitchers have a K% of 20 or above in the Study Hub.  Yup there is that pesky 100% number again.  How dare we have trends?!  85% of all winning pitchers had a K% of above 25% also. 

Pitcher thoughts – As with Draftkings, If I am using this data to make a pitcher pool, I want pitchers predicted to win their game with opponent run totals under 4, a rating from the hub above 50, a projection of at least 25, and a K% of above 20.  That should make for a pretty impressive pitcher pool.

That is our look at the lineup study in a little more detail. As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-mlb channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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