MLB Lineup Study Breakdown 5/23/2022
Welcome everyone to the Members only MLB lineup study breakdown article. For this article, I am taking the free to all lineup study article and I am breaking it down so that our members get a nice easy, quick snapshot of what the trends are in the MLB DFS season so far. This article will come out on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, but I hope to provide some extra material for our members who are looking towards the trends to help them make lineups.
What a great weekend for our members! If you haven’t had a chance yet, check out our winner’s channel in Discord. So many winners in that channel and it is a testament to everything that the members do to help each other out. We are a community who has a goal, and that goal is to make everyone around us better. This season, we have seen many players achieving that goal.
Let’s get to the stats. Draftkings first, then scroll down for Fanduel.
Draftkings Season Totals
What sticks out to me!
Hitter rating over 50 – 84% of all hitters used in slates of 10 or more have had a rating over 50. Did you know that since May 1st, 93% of all hitters used in winning lineups have had a hitter rating of at least 50? As a member, this is something that only you are aware of. Use this to your advantage.
Hub Stack Ratings – 80% of the main stacks in the winning lineups have had a Stack Rating in the Study Hub of 55 or above. When we look at slates 10 or above, that number jumps to 87%.
Stack size – This is a tough one for me. I still think a five man stack is the optimal path to victory. Some people will look at 58% and think that means that it isn’t though. Look at it a different way, a 5 man stack of some sort has. Been in winning lineups 58% of the time, this means that a 4 man, 3 man, 2 man or 1 offs have been in winning lineups 42% of the time. I will take my chances building a 5 man stack every night than trying to figure out which hybrid stack type will be the one I need that particular night.
Pitchers TROF Rating – 93% of the time the winning pitchers have had a rating from the Study Hub of 50 or above. Remember above when I said ratings are dialed in right now? This has had a huge effect on pitchers. I like probabilities, I am probably not using a pitcher under a 50 rating for a long time.
Vegas Win% of Pitchers – 94% of the time the winning pitchers had a Vegas Win% of 50% or more. This number went up a percentage since my last write up. Maybe Vegas is using our ratings?
Vegas Opposing Team Run Total – 88% of winning pitchers have had an opponent Vegas run total of 4.0 or under. If the opposing team doesn’t score a lot of runs, pitchers get more points. This stat has remained steady since I started the study.
Pitcher K% – 86% of all winning pitchers have a K% of 20 or above in the Study Hub. This number has jumped 3 percentage points since my last write up.
Pitcher thoughts – I am going to try this again, people are still getting cute and getting hurt by it. Look for pitchers with a higher rating, look at what Vegas thinks about them, and then look to see if they can strikeout the other team.
Stack thoughts – We want stacks which can score runs and are highly rated on the Study Hub.
Remember, we really aren’t re-inventing the wheel here, if you play good pitchers with good stacks, you put yourself in position for a good finish. Or for math people out there, good + good = good.
Fanduel Season Totals
What sticks out to me!
Hitter Rating – Hitters with a rating of 50 or above have been used 86% of the time in winning lineups. Since May 1st, that number is 94% of all hitters regardless of slate size have had a rating above 50. The wizard Ceegee is dialed in right now.
Hitter 85% over 20 – PAY ATTENTION HERE!!!! 81% of the hitters in winning lineups had an 85th percentile projection of 20 or more. Since May 1st, this number is 98%. Let me say this different. Since May 1st, 165 of the 168 hitters in winning lineups have had an 85% projection of 20 or more.
Stack Size – On Fanduel, it is easier to recognize your stack path. Stacks of 4 players of some kind have been in winning lineups 62% of the time. Remember, this means that only 38% of the time a 3,2, or 1 offs have won tournaments. Stick to your process.
Hub Stack Ratings – Same concept here, 75% of the main stacks in the winning lineups have had a Stack Rating in the Study Hub of 55 or above. Now, this number is fun, since May 1st, 92% of all winning stacks have been 55 or above in the Hub Stack ratings. Ceegee has been working hard on this and it shows.
Utility Spot – Let me explain this one a little more, 80% of the time a C1B or OF eligible player was used in a winning lineup. It has been a nice mix between C and 1B for the C1B position. Also, when it is a 2B, it is Jose Altuve. That is just facts. So utility spot should be C1B, OF, or Jose Altuve.
Pitcher TROF Projection – 89% of the time the winning lineup pitcher had a projection of 25 or above. I love this stat. It has been consistent all season.
Pitcher TROF Rating – 100% of the time the pitcher in the winning lineup has a rating of 50 or above. Yup, 100%. 84% of the time the winning lineup pitcher was 60 or above for their rating.
Vegas Win% of Pitchers – 82% of the time the winning pitchers had a Vegas Win% of 50% or more. I keep repeating some numbers. I think they are important.
Vegas Opposing Team Run Total – 87% of winning pitchers have had an opponent Vegas run total of 4.0 or under.
Pitcher K% – 93% of all winning pitchers have a K% of 20 or above in the Study Hub. I get it, there are exceptions to these, but if we are looking for a pitcher pool, I keep seeing the same trends showing up.
Last night in Discord, TheEvilEmpire142, who just won a seat at Fanduel’s live finals for MLB had some great remarks. One of which I want to echo here, “Create. A. Process. No matter what your process is, try your hardest to stick to it for a period of time. The beauty of being with RoF is you get access to projections from CeeGee that compare to the much more expensive DFS companies. On top of this, you get the credit to FC, which is BY FAR the best optimizer because of the Rewind feature. The RoF YouTube channel has INCREDIBLE videos to help create a process as well done by Donuts. You can create a process and see how it would have done without having to invest money”. Use our tools, use the Fantasy Cruncher credit, use Rewind with our tools. Find a process, stick with the process.
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