MLB Lineup Study Breakdown 5/27/2022
Welcome everyone to the Members only MLB lineup study breakdown article. For this article, I am taking the free to all lineup study article and I am breaking it down so that our members get a nice easy, quick snapshot of what the trends are in the MLB DFS season so far. This article will come out on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, but I hope to provide some extra material for our members who are looking towards the trends to help them make lineups.
Man, if you are missing Donuts’ streams then you are really missing the fire. He has been showing the magic and the Winners channel has been blowing up in Discord. Also, if you aren’t in our Discord, I highly encourage you to join us. We have some amazing strategy talk that can help anyone and everyone!
Let’s get to the stats. Draftkings first, then scroll down for Fanduel.
What sticks out to me! – Draftkings Large slates
Since today the main slate is 13 games on Draftkings I wanted to focus there, everything you see here will strictly be for large slates.
Large slates have more of a tendency to follow these trends. This really is because there are more teams with more good players so there are more chances for the good players to outshine the not so good players.
Hitter Projections – 94% of all hitters used in winning lineups for large slates have had a projection over 5. This goes along with what I just pointed out about large slates.
Hitter Ratings – 88% of all hitters used in winning lineups for large slates have had a rating over 50. Again, the larger the slate, the more you should be focused on playing the better players. Let Ceegee do the hard work for you.
Hub Stack Ratings – 79% of the main stacks in the winning lineups have had a Stack Rating in the Study Hub of 55 or above. On large slates, this number is bigger than on small slates. This tells me that by playing the best players from the teams with a good rating, we will have a better chance to put out a profitable lineup.
Stack size – What I am seeing here is that on these larger slates, 53% of the time a 5 man stack of some sort has been in the winning lineups. This is a much LOWER number than what I see in the small slates. On larger slates, the emphasis seems to shift to making sure you have the best players in your lineups instead of the best teams. That being said, I will still be using a 5 man stack because half the time they do come out on top.
Vegas Implied Run Totals for Stacks – 84% of the time in large slates the winning stack has had a Vegas Implied Run Total of 4.0 or above. This is another number which is much larger on large slates than it is on small slates. Let Vegas be a good guide for which teams you do end up using.
Pitchers TROF Rating – 95% of the time the winning pitchers have had a rating from the Study Hub of 50 or above. 73% of the time, the rating for pitchers is above 60. These numbers are consistent no matter what sized slate you are looking at.
Vegas Win% of Pitchers – 92% of the time the winning pitchers had a Vegas Win% of 50% or more. On large slates this number is considerable bigger than what we see on midsized slates, don’t get cute at pitcher on large slates!
Vegas Opposing Team Run Total – 85% of winning pitchers have had an opponent Vegas run total of 4.0 or under. The pattern here remains, larger slates tends to follow the trends for pitchers better than smaller slates.
Pitcher K% – 88% of all winning pitchers have a K% of 20 or above in the Study Hub. This is where we see slight dip from small slates. I still like 88% as a nice trend though.
Draftkings Season Totals
What sticks out to me! – Fanduel Large slates
Since today the main slate is 13 games on Fanduel I wanted to focus there, everything you see here will strictly be for large slates.
Hitter Rating – Hitters with a rating of 50 or above have been used 87% of the time in winning lineups. On Fanduel, this number has been consistent no matter what the slate size.
Hitter 85% – On the hub we have hitter percentiles, the 85% means the projection the batter is projected to hit 15% of the time. 83% on large slates, this number has been over 20 for hitters in the winning lineups on Fanduel.
Stack Size – On Fanduel, it is easier to recognize your stack path. Stacks of 4 players of some kind have been in winning lineups 61% of the time on these sized slates. By the way, 31% of the time, the winner had a 4/3 stack.
Hub Stack Ratings – 75% of winners on large slates have had a stack rating of 55 or above. For large slates, the hub stack rating is still going to lead you to the winner 3 out of every 4 slates.
Vegas Implied Run Totals for Stacks – 76% of the time in midsized slates the winning stack has had a Vegas Implied Run Total of 4.0 or above. Again, large slates follow trends better than small slates when it comes to stacks and teams to stack.
Pitcher TROF Projection – 88% of the time the winning lineup pitcher had a projection of 25 or above. I love this stat. It has been consistent all season on all slate sizes. By the way, on large slates this number is 67% when the Pitcher projection is 30 or above.
Pitcher TROF Rating – 98% of the time the pitcher in the winning lineup has a rating of 50 or above. Yup, 98%. 83% of the time the winning lineup pitcher was 60 or above for their rating. Again, consistent numbers across slate sizes.
Vegas Win% of Pitchers – 82% of the time the winning pitchers had a Vegas Win% of 50% or more. On large slates, this number is higher than smaller slates. Let Vegas help you pick your pitcher on large slates.
Vegas Opposing Team Run Total – 86% of winning pitchers have had an opponent Vegas run total of 4.0 or under. This number is pretty consistent across slates, maybe slightly higher on larger slates though.
Pitcher K% – 91% of all winning pitchers have a K% of 20 or above in the Study Hub. Still look for strikeout upside when picking pitchers no matter the slate size on Fanduel. Also, look for an opponent k% of over 20 as well, 91% of the time that has been in the winning lineups.
Fanduel Season Totals
That is our look at what to expect on a large slate like tonight according to the trends. As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-mlb channel. I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.
More Featured Articles
Welcome to the Top NFL DFS Picks for Saints vs Buccaneers Monday Night Football Showdown! We wrap up week 13 with an NFC South battle as the Bucs welcome in the Saints. The Bucs are ...