MLB Lineup Study Breakdown 5/30/2022
Welcome everyone to the Members only MLB lineup study breakdown article. For this article, I am taking the free to all lineup study article and I am breaking it down so that our members get a nice easy, quick snapshot of what the trends are in the MLB DFS season so far. This article will come out on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, but I hope to provide some extra material for our members who are looking towards the trends to help them make lineups.
Stay tuned! On Wednesday I will be looking at the month of May to see what the recent trends look like to give us an understanding of what is going on recently with the Study Hub and how dialed in the Hub has been! I wanted to do it today, but I figured with the Holiday I didn’t want members to miss it if they were taking time away.
Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.
Draftkings Season Totals
What sticks out to me! – Draftkings Midsized slates
Since today the Memorial Day slates are cut into midsized slates on Draftkings I wanted to focus there, everything you see here will strictly be for midsized slates.
I know there has been a lot of talk lately in Discord around stacks so I wanted to see how we can use the Hub to better understand stacks and what is winning this season.
Stack size – What I am seeing here is that on these midsized slates, 62% of the time a 5 man stack of some sort has been in the winning lineups. I like this stat a lot. It tells me that if you are using some sort of 5 man stack you still have the edge over players who don’t use them. Taking it a step further though, 24% of the time these are 5/2, 21% of the time these are 5/1/1 and 18% of the time these are 5/3. While 5/3 is still talked about as being the standard, the numbers show that they are falling a little behind the other 5 man stacks. Something to keep in mind as you build.
Hub Stack Ratings – 80% of the main stacks in the winning lineups have had a Stack Rating in the Study Hub of 55 or above. On the midsized slates, I do notice that the stack ratings tend to be close to that 55 number as 40% of the time the winners have used a stack between 55 and 60 for the rating from the hub. Another stat that I love. It puts me in a position to know if I am looking in the right direction for my stacks.
Vegas Implied Run Totals for Stacks – 69% of the time in large slates the winning stack has had a Vegas Implied Run Total of 4.0 or above. When I break this one down further, it becomes even murkier for me. 27% of the time the IRT is between 4.0 and 4.5, 28% of the time the IRT is between 4.5 and 5.0, but then only 14% of the winners have been above 5.0 for their IRT. What this tells me is I should be open to a range of Vegas Implied Run Totals. Don’t let it be your main factor, but instead use it as a guide of sorts.
Looking at pitchers, I am not going to go too much into it again, they still follow the trends closely. Don’t get cute at pitcher. Look for ratings over 50, projection over 13, K% above 20%, and a Vegas Implied Win% over 50% and you will most likely be in good shape on most slates.
Fanduel Season Totals
What sticks out to me! – Fanduel Midsized slates
Again, we have some nice midsized slates to look at on Fanduel with the main being a 6 game slate tonight.
As with Draftkings, let’s look at stacks more in depth here. I still think Fanduel might be a bit behind on trying to be different and still has more players which follow the group way of thinking and that plays right into our hands of looking to see where the winners are ending up.
Stack Size – On Fanduel, it is easier to recognize your stack path. Stacks of 4 players of some kind have been in winning lineups 71% of the time on these sized slates. Now we take that a step further and we see that 36% of the time the stack has been a 4/3, 18% of the time it is a 4/4, and 18% of the time it has been a 4/2. Stick with the 4 man stacks. I do like the 36% 4/3 stacks as well on Fanduel, I really think this is still the optimal path.
Hub Stack Ratings – 67% of winners on midsized slates have had a stack rating of 55 or above. Breaking that down, 40% of the time the rating was between 55 and 60 while 27% of the time the rating was above 60. We need to understand that 67% of the time is 2 out of every 3 slates. I am more than willing to use a stat that works 2 out of every 3 times if it means I am winning. Look for the good stacks and play them. Obviously use some other metrics to further hone in on which stacks above 55 rating to play, but I would definitely use rating for stacks somehow in my process for sure.
Vegas Implied Run Totals for Stacks – 65% of the time in midsized slates the winning stack has had a Vegas Implied Run Total of 4.0 or above. Vegas sometimes struggles on smaller slates, but most of the time they get it right. Teams that score more give you the better chance of winning. In fact, the breakdown for this is even more impressive to me, 26% of the time the Vegas IRT was between 4.0 and 4.5, 19% of the time it was between 4.5 and 5.0, and 19% of the time the IRT was above 5.0. Like Hub stack rating, use Vegas to your advantage, let them do the work to figure out which teams are going to score.
Pitchers – Midsized slates still follow the trends, 93% of winning pitchers had a Study Hub projection of 25 or above, 96% had a Study Hub rating of 50 or above, 93% of winning pitchers have had a K% of 93% or above. Use these stats to gain the edge over people trying to be cute at pitcher!
That is our look at the lineup study breakdown for today. As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-mlb channel. I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.
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