MMA DFS Top Plays for UFC Vegas 69
UFC Vegas 69 is shaping up to be a stacked event featuring some of the biggest names in MMA. From explosive knockouts to technical grappling exchanges, the night promises to be an exciting one for fight fans.
MMA DFS Top Plays for UFC Vegas 69
Prelim card (4 p.m. ET on ESPN+)
Juancamilo Ronderos (4-1-0) v. Clayton Carpenter (6-0-0)
In a flyweight bout at UFC Vegas 69, Juancamilo Ronderos (4-1-0) will take on Clayton Carpenter (6-0-0), a rising prospect making his UFC debut. Carpenter stands at 5’6″ with a reach of 68″ and fights in the orthodox stance. He boasts a high volume striking style and plus wrestling and grappling skills, with 4 finishes in 6 wins. Meanwhile, Ronderos stands at 5’4″, fights in the southpaw stance, and has a moderate-volume striking style with plus grappling skills, having 2 finishes in his 4 wins.
From a DFS perspective, Carpenter is expected to perform well, with a projected DraftKings score of 88.02, making him a high-tier option with a DK Value tier of D, but his high salary of $9,300 may make it challenging to hit value. Ronderos, on the other hand, is projected to score much lower, with a DraftKings score of 57.50 and a DK Val tier of E. However, he comes at a lower salary of $6,900, which may make him an appealing option for those looking to save salary.
According to the TeamRiseOrFall.com MMA Study Hub, Carpenter is the heavy favorite, with a Vegas odds line of -307 and a win probability of 75.4%. He is also expected to have higher ownership at 31.4% compared to Ronderos, who has an ownership percentage of 12.9%. The Study Hub gives Ronderos a win probability of only 28.7%, making Carpenter the clear favorite to win this fight. Carpenter will need an early finish or an impressive performance to hit value, but he is expected to be better everywhere and should secure a statement win in his UFC debut.
AJ Fletcher (9-2-0) v. Themba Gorimbo (10-3-0)
AJ Fletcher will face off against Themba Gorimbo in a welterweight bout at UFC Vegas 69. Fletcher, with a record of 9-2-0, has shown promise with his moderate volume striking and plus wrestling/grappling skills. He has 8 finishes in 9 wins, and according to the DFS perspective, he gets a winnable matchup against a debuting fighter. Fletcher is expected to control where the fight goes, but his cardio may become a concern as the fight progresses. With a salary of $9,100, he is projected to score 91.41 DraftKings points and has a win probability of 73.8%, making him a solid option for GPP contests.
Gorimbo, on the other hand, has a record of 10-3-0, with moderate volume striking and plus wrestling/grappling skills. He has 7 finishes in 10 wins and is savvy on the mat, which could lead to an early submission if he chooses to grind Fletcher out. Gorimbo’s DFS projection is 59.35 DraftKings points, and he is priced at $7,100. He has a win probability of 30.5% and is expected to have an ownership percentage of 18.2%.
Overall, the fight is expected to be close, and both fighters have potential to perform well in GPP contests. However, according to the MMA Study Hub, Fletcher is the favorite with a win probability of 73.8%.
Ovince Saint Preux (26-16-0) v. Philipe Lins (15-5-0)
In the light heavyweight division, Ovince Saint Preux (26-16-0) will take on Philipe Lins (15-5-0) at UFC Vegas 44. Saint Preux, a southpaw fighter with an 80-inch reach, is known for his low volume striking and solid wrestling/grappling skills, with 8 finishes in 20 wins. Lins, an orthodox fighter with a 78-inch reach, has moderate volume striking and is also a strong wrestler and grappler, with 12 finishes in 15 wins.
According to the TeamRiseOrFall.com MMA Study Hub, Lins is the clear favorite in this matchup with a win probability of 68.8% and a Vegas odds line of -220. Lins is also projected to score well in DFS, with a DraftKings projection of 83.06 and a value tier of D. Saint Preux, on the other hand, has a lower win probability of 35.7% and a DraftKings projection of 59.67, putting him in the value tier of E.
From a DFS perspective, Lins appears to be the safer play due to his high projection and win probability. However, Saint Preux’s low salary and potential for a finish make him a viable option for those looking to save salary. It’s worth noting that both fighters have relatively low ownership percentages, with Lins at 22.4% and Saint Preux at 19.3%.
Overall, Lins is the more well-rounded fighter and should win this fight as long as he avoids any mistakes. He is expected to be the faster and more aggressive fighter, and his wrestling and grappling skills should help him control the fight. However, Saint Preux’s power and grappling ability make him a live underdog, and he could potentially score a finish if given the opportunity.
Jamall Emmers (18-6-0) v. Khusein Askhabov (23-0-0)
Jamall Emmers (18-6-0) will face off against Khusein Askhabov (23-0-0) in a featherweight bout at UFC Vegas 69. Emmers is a high-volume striker with plus wrestling and grappling skills, with 10 finishes in 18 wins. Askhabov, on the other hand, has a similar moderate-volume striking style but also possesses plus wrestling and grappling skills, with 17 finishes in 23 wins. Askhabov is the favorite to win this fight, with a win probability of 60.2%, according to the TeamRiseOrFall.com MMA Study Hub.
From a DFS perspective, both fighters are projected to perform well, with Emmers expected to score 70.8 DraftKings points and Askhabov projected to score 77.06 points. However, Askhabov is the higher-priced fighter and may have difficulty hitting value. Emmers, on the other hand, is priced lower and could provide a better value play. Nonetheless, Askhabov is expected to win this fight, potentially finishing Emmers early or winning by decision.
According to the TeamRiseOrFall.com MMA Study Hub, Askhabov is the favorite to win with a Vegas odds line of -151, while Emmers has a win probability of 39.8%. Both fighters have relatively high ownership percentages, with Emmers at 26.8% and Askhabov also at 26.8%. Our DFS top play for this fight is Khusein Askhabov, who is expected to win and has the potential to pay off his salary with a dominant performance.
Mayra Bueno Silva (7-2-0) vs. Lina Lansberg (10-5-0)
Lina Lansberg (10-5-0) will face off against Mayra Bueno Silva (7-2-0) in a women’s bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 69. Lansberg is a moderate-volume striker with minimal wrestling and grappling skills, but she has 8 finishes in 20 wins. Silva, on the other hand, has a similar moderate-volume striking style but also possesses plus wrestling and grappling skills, with 7 finishes in 9 wins. Silva is the heavy favorite with 83.6% win probability according to the TeamRiseOrFall.com MMA Study Hub.
From a DFS perspective, Lansberg is not expected to do well, with a projected DraftKings score of 49.99, while Silva is projected to perform much better, with a score of 87.69. However, Silva is the highest-priced fighter on the slate and may not hit enough value to justify her price. Lansberg’s relatively low salary and potential to score a few points may make her an attractive option for those looking to save salary. Nonetheless, Silva is expected to dominate this fight, likely winning a decision or finishing Lansberg early.
According to the TeamRiseOrFall.com MMA Study Hub, Silva is the clear favorite with a Vegas odds line of -508. Lansberg has a win probability of only 20.4% and a low ownership percentage of 10.4%. Therefore, our DFS top play for this fight is Mayra Bueno Silva.
Nazim Sadykhov (7-1-0) v. Evan Elder (7-1-0)
This lightweight matchup pits newcomer Nazim Sadykhov against Evan Elder, who is coming off a loss in his UFC debut. Sadykhov has a 7-1 professional record with six finishes in his seven wins. Elder, on the other hand, has a 7-1 record with five finishes in his seven victories.
From a DFS perspective, Elder is a risky play. He failed to impress in his UFC debut, and it is hard to see how he can win this fight against a highly skilled opponent like Sadykhov. Sadykhov is expected to dominate the fight in all areas, thanks to his well-rounded skillset and impressive resume.
In terms of fighting style, Sadykhov is a powerful striker who can generate tremendous force in his strikes. He also has a strong ground-and-pound game, which he used to great effect in his Contender Series fight in August. Elder, on the other hand, has a solid kicking game, but he was taken down four times in six attempts by his opponent in his UFC debut. He also struggled to get back to his feet, allowing his opponent to control him on the ground for nearly eight minutes.
Sadykhov’s well-rounded skills and superior wrestling make him a strong pick to win this fight. Elder may be able to land a big shot, but Sadykhov’s ground-and-pound and overall control of the fight will likely be too much for him to overcome. The odds and DFS projections both heavily favor Sadykhov, making him a favorite to win and a strong value pick for fantasy players.
Overall, the fight is expected to be an exciting one, with Sadykhov looking to make a strong debut and Elder hoping to bounce back from his loss. However, Sadykhov’s skillset and superior control of the fight make him the clear favorite and a good pick for both bettors and fantasy players.
Main card (8 p.m. ET on ESPN+)
Jim Miller (35-16-0) v. Alexander Hernandez (13-6-0)
The lightweight matchup between Jim Miller and Alexander Hernandez is one that could play out in a couple of different ways. Miller is a crafty veteran who has been in the UFC since 2008 and has a wealth of experience. He is a southpaw fighter who is known for his grappling and submissions, with 25 of his 35 wins coming by way of finish. On the other hand, Hernandez is a younger fighter who is known for his wrestling and striking, with 8 of his 13 wins coming by way of finish.
From a DFS perspective, this fight is interesting as it is a matchup of a striker in Hernandez versus a grappler in Miller. Hernandez has shown great power in his hands and can finish fights early with his striking. Miller, on the other hand, has a wealth of experience and has proven to be a tough fighter who can grind out his opponents and finish them late in fights. If Hernandez comes out hot like he did in his last fight, he could put Miller away early, but if Miller can take Hernandez down and wear him out, he could secure a late submission victory.
Looking at the DK projections, Hernandez is the clear favorite and is expected to perform well with a projection of 89.19 and a value tier of B. Miller, on the other hand, has a lower projection of 60.25 and a value tier of E. The odds are also in favor of Hernandez, with Miller being the underdog. However, Miller is a tough veteran who should not be underestimated and could pull off the upset if he can utilize his grappling skills and take Hernandez to the mat.
William Knight (11-4-0) v. Marcin Prachnio (15-6-0)
William Knight will take on Marcin Prachnio in a Light Heavyweight bout. Knight has a significant advantage in power and wrestling, but his cardio may be an issue due to his muscular build. On the other hand, Prachnio will have a speed and volume advantage, and he must avoid getting taken down to keep the fight on the feet. The odds are close, but the current line favors Knight, and I tend to agree with that. Knight has the power to end the fight with a single shot, and he will likely look to use his wrestling to control the fight and wear Prachnio down.
According to TeamRiseOrFall.com Study Hub data, Knight is projected to score slightly lower than Prachnio, and his ownership is higher. This might make Prachnio a solid GPP option, but Knight’s grappling skills are significant, and he is more likely to score points by getting takedowns and top control time.
Prachnio’s lack of defense, both striking and grappling, makes him vulnerable to Knight’s wrestling skills. I expect Knight to use his grappling skills to win the fight and cover the salary.
Josh Parisian (15-5-0) v. Jamal Pogues (9-3-0)
This heavyweight bout features two fighters with strong wrestling backgrounds, which could lead to a grappling-heavy affair. Josh Parisian is the more experienced fighter and has faced tougher competition in his UFC career so far, including a split-decision loss to Parker Porter in his last fight. Parisian is a strong wrestler with a grinding style that can wear down opponents, but he can be vulnerable to strikes if he leaves his hands down.
Jamal Pogues is a former college wrestler who has shown flashes of power in his Contender Series bouts. Pogues tends to keep his opponents at range with his jab and straight punches, but he can struggle with takedown defense and has been taken down in most of his fights. Despite his wrestling background, Pogues has shown a willingness to engage in striking exchanges and has finished five of his nine wins by KO/TKO.
In terms of DFS value, the TeamRiseorFall.com Study Hub projects Pogues to be the better pick, with a higher projected DK score and value. Pogues is also more heavily owned by DFS players, likely due to his lower salary and finishing potential. However, Parisian has the advantage of experience and could use his wrestling to grind out a win, especially if he can avoid getting caught by Pogues’ power.
Ultimately, this is a closely matched fight that could go either way. The TeamRiseorFall.com Study Hub gives Pogues the edge in terms of projected DK score and value, but Parisian’s experience and wrestling could make him a strong pick for DFS players looking for an upset.
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Zac Pauga (5-1-0) v. Jordan Wright (12-4-0)
In this Light Heavyweight matchup, we have Jordan Wright taking on Zac Pauga. Wright is moving up to the LHW division for this fight, so it will be interesting to see how he performs at this weight class.
Wright is a high-volume fighter who has shown a well-rounded skill set with solid wrestling and grappling abilities. He has finished all of his 12 wins, which is an impressive feat. On the other hand, Pauga is a low-volume striker who has shown minimal wrestling and grappling abilities. He has only finished one of his five wins.
Looking at the DFS projections, Wright is projected to score 63.47 points on DraftKings with a DK value of 9.07. He is in the DK Proj Tier E and DK Val Tier E, with a ownership percentage of 22.5%. On the other hand, Pauga is projected to score 93.21 points on DraftKings with a DK value of 10.13. He is in the DK Proj Tier A and DK Val Tier A, with an ownership percentage of 28.9%. The odds favor Pauga heavily at -277 with a 73.5% chance of winning.
From a DFS perspective, Wright could be a solid pick due to his potential value if he can avoid making a mistake and getting caught in a compromised position. However, Pauga has a clear advantage in terms of betting odds and could be the safer pick.
In terms of the actual fight, Wright’s grappling abilities could prove to be a challenge for Pauga, who has shown little to no grappling skills in his fights. However, Pauga could try to keep the fight standing and use his striking to catch Wright. If Pauga can keep the fight on the feet and avoid getting taken down, he could potentially win the fight by landing significant strikes.
Overall, I predict that Jordan Wright will come out on top in this fight. While he has a questionable fight IQ, his well-rounded skill set and previous success in finishing all of his wins make him a dangerous opponent for Pauga. However, if Pauga can keep the fight standing and land significant strikes, he could pull off the upset.
Jessica Andrade (24-9-0) v. Erin Blanchfield (10-1-0)
This is a very intriguing main event matchup between Jessica Andrade and Erin Blanchfield. Andrade is a proven veteran in the UFC, with a solid record of 24-9-0, and has shown high-volume striking and excellent wrestling and grappling skills. She has recorded 17 finishes in 24 wins, and her striking power has proven to be a formidable weapon in her arsenal. On the other hand, Blanchfield is a rising prospect in the flyweight division with a record of 10-1-0. She has also shown high-volume striking, good wrestling, and grappling skills, with five finishes in ten wins.
DFS Perspective: According to the TeamRiseOrFall.com Study Hub data, Andrade is projected to score more points in DraftKings, with a projection of 91.09, while Blanchfield is projected to score 79.46 points. However, Blanchfield is valued more favorably, with a DK value tier of A and a projected ownership of 30.6%. On the other hand, Andrade is valued at an A tier, with a projected ownership of 41.4%. The betting odds favor Andrade at -128, with a 56.1% win probability.
In this fight, Andrade’s striking power will be a significant factor, and Blanchfield will need to be careful not to get caught in the crossfire. While Andrade’s striking is formidable, she has struggled with strong grapplers in the past. If Blanchfield can take Andrade to the ground, she could have an advantage with her grappling skills. Andrade has not shown much off her back during her UFC career, which makes me think Blanchfield will be able to have her way when she gets in top position.
From a betting perspective, it’s tempting to pick Andrade as the favorite, but her struggles with grapplers give Blanchfield a good chance to pull off an upset. Blanchfield’s grappling skills and high volume striking make her a formidable opponent, and if she can avoid Andrade’s striking power and take her to the ground, she could control the fight and earn a decision victory. Therefore, I’m picking Erin Blanchfield to win this fight via a controlling decision.
That’s all I’ve got for today
Thank you for checking out the article, I hope I was able to provide you with some value as you begin to build your DFS lineups for today’s contests.
Be sure to hit me up in Discord if you have questions. If you would prefer to reach out to me on Twitter @CeeGeeDFS that works too
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