Let’s dive into my Monday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. We have a 2 game slate to wrap up Week 4. Let’s get into it!
With an implied total of 30.5, we can safely assume that the Chiefs are going to score plenty of points; we just have to determine how they are going to score. New England currently ranks 19th in run defense efficiency and 27th in pass defense efficiency. Knowing that the passing game is Kansas City’s strength, I’m leaning towards that facet of the offense. The usual stack of Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill and/or Travis Kelce is in play as it always is. Since it’s a 2 game slate, I would have shares of Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins in MME. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a target for me since I’m theorizing that Kansas City takes control of this game early and never trails.
The Patriots are much more complicated than the Chiefs’ side of this game. I’m going to assume that Cam Newton is out for this game given that he had COVID-19 just a couple of days ago. Brian Hoyer will be at the helm for New England with a 19.5 implied total. Hoyer is definitely a pocket passer and we should see the Patriots adjust their offensive scheme based on his skills. I’m not going to be stacking New England but, if you are then Brian Hoyer to Julian Edelman and/or N’Keal Harry would be where I would go. With James White back, I’m expecting split touches between White and Burkhead. It’s possible the J.J. Taylor gets some work in the backfield but, that’s more of a 150 max MME dart play for me.
With an implied total of 32, there should be plenty of scoring for the Packers in this spot. Atlanta currently ranks 17th in both run defense and pass defense efficiency but, we have seen them crumble two weeks in a row and offer no resistance to opposing offenses. Aaron Jones should get as many touches as he can handle in this spot with the injuries to the receivers. It’s possible we see Jones get 6-8 targets as well making him my top running back on the slate. I’m stacking Aaron Rodgers with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and/or Robert Tonyan. Jace Sternberger, Malik Taylor, and Darrius Shepherd are MME targets for me.
With an implied total of 25, I expect the Falcons offense to find the end zone plenty of times on Monday. The Packers’ defense ranks 20th in pass defense efficiency and 27th in run defense efficiency. The fewest pass attempts that Matt Ryan has has through three games is 36. I don’t expect Atlanta to go run heavy with how successful the offense has been. I’m stacking Matt Ryan with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and/or Hayden Hurst. Russell Gage is more of a MME target fo me. If you think Atlanta jumps out to a big lead and holds it, Todd Gurley could be a good play. Gurley has gotten a max of 21 touches through 3 games but, they could lean on him more if they’re trying to put the game away.
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