Monday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 11-16
Let’s dive into my Monday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. Let’s get into it!
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears O/U 44 MIN -3
Scenario 1: Game Stays Close
In this scenario, there are two outcomes we are trying to cover; a defensive battle and a shootout. For the defensive battle, I would roster the defense of the team you think will win the game. It is likely that both quarterbacks would struggle in this scenario. This is in the realm of possibilities with Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins leading each team.
For the Minnesota side, I’m focusing on Dalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, and Kyle Rudolph. For me, this starts with Dalvin Cook. He has been on a tear and gets over 70% of the running back touches via the NFL Study Hub. The Bears are only allowing 219 passing yards per game which makes me like Cook even more. If the passing attack does well, Thielen is sporting a 20% market share and Jefferson comes in at 27%, per the NFL Study Hub. I would prioritize those two and mix in Rudolph in hopes that they get positive touchdown variance.
For a shootout, the Vikings offense would most likely be firing on all cylinders. A stack of Cousins with Cook and one of Thielen or Jefferson could dominate the market share.
For the Chicago side, I’m focusing on Nick Foles, Allen Robinson, Ryan Nall, Lamar Miller Jimmy Graham, and Darnell Mooney. According to the NFL Study Hub, Minnesota is giving up 31 points per game to opposing wide receivers and only 18 to opposing running backs. This leads me to favor a 3 man Bears stack for a defensive battle.
The Bears rushing attack is going to be a tricky one. Available options are Ryan Nall, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Lamar Miller. I would expect a split between Nall and Patterson with a few carries going Miller’s way. Miller is only $200 on DraftKings and could be a great punt play if he is involved in the offense. I prefer Nall and Patterson over Miller.
For a shootout, I’m adding Anthony Miller to my pool. Robinson, Miller, and Mooney all have a market share of around 17%, per the NFL Study Hub.
As always, lock in the kicker of the team you predict wins the game and fade both defenses for a shootout.
Scenario 2: Vikings Dominate
As I referenced, the Vikings offense will start with Dalvin Cook. Cook is by far their best weapon and cannot be ignored. However, if Minnesota dominates the game, Cook will not score every touchdown. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are both prime candidates for 100 yards and a touchdown for this scenario. I prefer Jefferson on both sites solely because he is cheaper and has a higher market share per the NFL Study Hub. I’ll have stacks of Cousins with Cook and one of the receivers as I mentioned before.
Kyle Rudolph should get low target volume but, they are cheap and are threats in the red zone.
Lock in Vikings defense and Dan Bailey for this scenario. More sack opportunities for the defense and more kicking opportunities for Bailey.
For the Bears, I would target Anthony Miller or Darnell Mooney. They are both cheap and get just as much volume as a more expensive Allen Robinson.
Scenario 3: Bears Dominate
It’s not a stretch to think that the Bears could end up running away with this game. As I mentioned earlier, Minnesota is allowing 31 points per game to opposing wide receivers. I would prioritize a stack of Nick Foles with Allen Robinson and one of Darnell Mooney or Anthony Miller. If you predict Jimmy Graham gets positive touchdown variance, then I would prioritize him. Minnesota has only allowed 8 points per game to opposing tight ends.
If the Bears dominate this game, I would imagine one of Ryan Nall, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Lamar Miller finding the endzone at least once. Again, I prefer Nall or Patterson but, Miller is definitely in play on DraftKings.
Lock in Bears defense and Cairo Santos for this scenario. More sack opportunities for the defense and more kicking opportunities for Santos.
For the Minnesota side, I prefer Justin Jefferson. In this scenario, Dalvin Cook would be game scripted out of this game. Jefferson is the best big-play threat on the Vikings and is cheaper than Thielen on both sites.
FantasyCruncher Limits and Groups
For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play. FantasyCruncher groups allow you to have multiple folders of groups. I’d recommend having a folder for each scenario that I described above and differentiating those groups throughout your 20 or 150 max contests.
Focus on the correlation between the Captain/MVP and the remaining players. For example, I’m pairing Captain Darnell Mooney with Nick Foles and another pass catcher. This theorizes that the Bears will go pass-heavy and Rivers will throw for multiple touchdowns. It is important in groups to keep the rotational guys out of your groups. This will allow you to have more control over your lineups.
See ya in discord,