Monday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 11-2
Let’s dive into my Monday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. Let’s get into it!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants O/U 45 TB -12.5
Scenario 1: Game Stays Close
In this scenario, there are two outcomes we are trying to cover; a defensive battle and a shootout. For the defensive battle, I would roster the defense of the team you think will win the game. It is likely that both quarterbacks would struggle in this scenario. Given the spread, this scenario is unlikely but, we still have to cover it in our 150 max contests.
For the Tampa Bay side, I’m looking for a boost in market share due to Chris Godwin being inactive. The most affected by this will be Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, Justin Watson, Rob Gronkowski, and Tyler Johnson. If Tampa struggles on offense, it will most likely be caused by Tom Brady turning the ball over multiple times. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette should see a higher workload in this scenario. I would not play both running backs together. I would lock in the Tampa Bay Defense for this scenario.
For the New York Side, there’s very little running game for this offense. The Giants throw the ball over 60% of the time purely out of necessity (via NFL Study Hub.) For this scenario, I would focus on the Giants wide receivers. Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, or Golden Tate could be optimal due to the volume of pass attempts from Daniel Jones. If New York wins in this scenario, Giants Defense and Graham Gano will be key contributors.
Scenario 2: Buccaneers Dominate
Given the spread, this is the most likely scenario. Via the NFL Study Hub, the Bucs defense is giving up 291 yards per game and the Giants have an implied total of 16.25. This seems like a great spot to go with a 5-1 roster construction in favor of the Bucs.
For New York, I would focus on a high upside wide receiver. I’ll be targeting Darius Slayton or Sterling Shepard.
For Tampa Bay, I’m theorizing that they will stay true to their heavy passing attack. I’m targeting Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Scotty Miller, and sprinkling in shares of Justin Watson/Tyler Johnson in MME. Justin Watson is just $800 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel. I’m prioritizing Buccaneers Defense for this scenario as I am theorizing that Tampa Bay will not face much resistance from New York. I have some interest in Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones but, they are not a priority as they will split snaps and Tampa Bay has only run the ball 39% of their plays (via NFL Study Hub.)
Scenario 3: Giants Dominate
Here is where you can get really contrarian in tournaments. The field is most likely going to be heavy on Tampa Bay (as they should) and leveraging with New York shares could present an edge. As a note, given the spread and implied totals, this is the least likely outcome but, it should be covered in large field MME 150 max contests. Let’s dive into some 5-1 Giants builds. We are theorizing that New York gets a big lead early in this scenario.
For Tampa Bay, going to stick with the passing game and target 1 of Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, or Justin Watson (DraftKings only.)
To get the big lead, New York will have to hit some big plays in the passing game. I’m targeting Daniel Jones, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, and Evan Engram. Slayton and Shepard are most likely to be the beneficiaries of chunk plays and get the bulk of the targets (23% for Slaton and 27% for Shepard via NFL Study Hub.) I see the running game as a nonfactor given that the Tampa Bay defense is only giving up 66 rushing yards per game. I’m prioritizing Giants Defense and Graham Gano for this scenario.
If you run Justin Watson from the Tampa Bay side, you can get whoever you want from the New York side.
FantasyCruncher Limits and Groups
For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play. FantasyCruncher groups allow you to have multiple folders of groups. I’d recommend having a folder for each scenario that I described above and differentiating those groups throughout your 20 or 150 max contests.
Focus on the correlation between the Captain/MVP and the remaining players. For example, I’m pairing Captain Mike Evans with Tom Brady and another pass catcher. This theorizes that the Buccaneers will go pass-heavy and Brady will throw for multiple touchdowns. It is important in groups to keep the rotational guys out of your groups. This will allow you to have more control over your lineups.
See ya in discord,