Monday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 11-23
Let’s dive into my Monday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. Let’s get into it!
NBA is right around the corner! Get a sneak peek at what is to come this season with the NBA Study Hub Sample.
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U 48.5 TB -4
Scenario 1: Game Stays Close
Another good primetime game. It should be a good one! In this scenario, there are two outcomes we are trying to cover; a defensive battle and a shootout. For the defensive battle, I would roster the defense of the team you think will win the game. It is likely that both quarterbacks would struggle in this scenario. With a total of 48.5, this game should be relatively low scoring.
For the Tampa Bay side, I’m focusing on Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Ronald Jones, and Leonard Fournette. At this point, we know who the targets are for Tampa Bay and they are all viable to produce on any given night. According to the NFL Study Hub, Tampa Bay is passing on 62% of their plays. This leads me to favor the passing game given the volume and the Rams quality run defense. Godwin and Evans are priority targets but, Brown is firmly in the mix.
If you roster Jones or Fournette, I would roster at max one per lineup.
For the Los Angeles side, I’m focusing on Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds, Darrell Henderson, Cam Akers, and Malcolm Brown. According to the NFL Study Hub, Los Angeles runs a balanced offense but, Tampa Bay is only allowing 76 rushing yards per game. This leads me to favor the passing game. Kupp, Woods, and Reynolds should dominate the target share and all could go for ceiling days. Reynold is the cheapest of the three wide receivers on both sites.
For a shootout, I would take some shots at Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee in MME. They are low volume targets but, they have touchdown upside in the red zone.
As always, lock in the kicker of the team you predict wins the game and fade both defenses for a shootout.
Scenario 2: Buccaneers Dominate
If Tampa Bay dominates this game, they will do it with the passing game. This scenario predicts that Tom Brady will throw for multiple touchdowns and predicting who the recipients of those touchdowns are will be crucial. The high volume targets are Evans, Godwin, and Brown while Gronkowski is more of an end zone threat. Gronkowski is much cheaper than the three receivers and will be reliant on touchdown variance but, we need that to hit the optimal. I’ll be pairing Brady with two pass-catchers because three receivers hitting a ceiling is unlikely.
Ronald Jones is very much in play for this scenario. If Tampa Bay is comfortably in the lead, they will chew clock by giving Jones a boatload of carries towards the end of the game.
I would lock in Ryan Succop for this scenario. He will have plenty of kicking opportunities if Tampa Bay dominates Los Angeles.
My preferred Ram for this scenario is either Josh Reynolds or Cooper Kupp. Kupp sees the highest volume and Reynolds has seen comparable volume at a cheaper price. Both are great plays in a pass-heavy scenario.
Scenario 3: Rams Dominate
If Los Angeles dominates, it will be on the strength of their balanced attack. It is likely that they will cycle in all three of Henderson, Brown, and Akers at relatively similar workloads. All you can do is have exposure to all three to differentiate or take a stand on one and hope you bet on the right horse.
Also, Goff will play clean football in this scenario and we will have to predict who the beneficiary of his targets will be. Most likely, it will be Kupp but, Woods and Reynolds have high upsides as well. I would pair Goff with a pass catcher and a running back or Goff with two pass catchers.
I would lock in Matt Gay for this scenario. He will have plenty of kicking opportunities if Los Angeles dominates Tampa Bay.
My preferred Buccaneer would be Chris Godwin or Mike Evans. They get the most volume and have the highest ceilings on their offense.
FantasyCruncher Limits and Groups
For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play. FantasyCruncher groups allow you to have multiple folders of groups. I’d recommend having a folder for each scenario that I described above and differentiating those groups throughout your 20 or 150 max contests.
Focus on the correlation between the Captain/MVP and the remaining players. For example, I’m pairing Captain Mike Evans with Tom Brady and another pass catcher. This theorizes that the Buccaneers will go pass-heavy and Brady will throw for multiple touchdowns. It is important in groups to keep the rotational guys out of your groups. This will allow you to have more control over your lineups.
See ya in discord,