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NASCAR DFS Xfinity Series Picks | Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner. 300

Nascar DFS Xfinity

NASCAR DFS Xfinity Series Picks | Beef. It’s What’s For Dinner. 300

Today, we kick off the Xfinity Series season! 2021 ended with Daniel Hemric surprisingly earning his first win ever in NASCAR and consequently, the championship. Though he will no longer be driving for Joe Gibbs Racing, his Kaulig Racing team is sure to be a contender in 2022.

A lot of talent has moved on to the Cup Series, but even more talent has decided to run the Xfinity Series full-time, including 2021 race winners Josh Berry and Ty Gibbs. Truck Series stalwarts, Sheldon Creed and Austin Hill, will also be running full-time, both for Richard Childress Racing. This is arguably the most competitive the Xfinity Series has ever been!

Some DFS lineup-building principles apply across all NASCAR series, but the Xfinity Series does vary slightly. Let’s kick off the season with a bang by diving into previous years’ data…

Lineup Construction

  • Roster 3 or more drivers starting 30th or worse.

PLACE DIFFERENTIAL! Over the past 8 superspeedway races, optimal lineups have featured 3 or more drivers starting 30th or worse five times (62.5%). Of the remaining lineups, two included 2 drivers in this range. 31% of top 6 DraftKings scores at Daytona or Talladega over the past 12 races came from drivers starting 31st to 40th.

Drivers starting in this range should be even less risky than normal because of how many teams are attempting to make the race. Nine cars will be sent home after qualifying, so there is less chance of a freak mechanical issue causing an early, tilting exit.

  • Roster no more than 2 drivers starting in the top 15. If so, target teammates.

Drivers starting toward the front do not have the ceilings of this starting farther back. Unless the race remains fairly clean, these drivers have a narrow path to being optimal.

It is worth noting, however, that of the five drivers to start in the top 5 and make the optimal lineup since 2013, four of them were paired with a teammate. In fact, in 5 of the past 8 superspeedway races, Kaulig Racing has had multiple drivers make the optimal lineup due to their willingness to work together and put the team first.

  • Drivers priced above $10,000 should only be played if they provide place differential.

The 2021 season had just 4/33 races where the optimal lineup did not include a driver priced above $10,000. Three of those instances came at Daytona or Talladega. Also, over the past 8 races, drivers priced over $9,000 (to broaden sample size) to make the lineup provided 16 place differential points, on average.

  • Don’t worry about salary!

As discussed yesterday for the Truck Series, do not worry about leaving salary on the table for superspeedway races. It definitely feels uncomfortable, but winning doesn’t.

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Drivers to Target

High-Priced Picks

AJ Allmendinger ($10,400)/Landon Cassill ($9,400) – As mentioned above, roster drivers in the top 15 sparingly and stack with teammates if possible. Kaulig Racing has had a stronghold on superspeedways recently, constantly working together to stay up front. Avoid Allmendinger if not stacking due to his lack of place differential, however.

Noah Gragson ($9,800)/Josh Berry ($9,600) – Another possible teammate stack to consider. These JR Motorsports drivers have likely discussed strategy with their team owner, Dale Jr., who is arguably the best superspeedway racer of all-time.

Mid-Priced Picks

Sam Mayer ($8,900) – Mayer should come in extremely high owned since he’s another JRM car and starting worse than 30th. He did finish 12th at Daytona last summer, though. He should be a cash game staple, but consider going underweight in GPPs as he is quite aggressive and could end up in a wreck. Lower owned pivot: Myatt Snider ($8,300).

Jeb Burton ($8,000) – Jeb is no longer racing for Kaulig, but he’s performed well the past two years at Daytona despite racing for different teams. He also has a win and 3 top 10 finishes at Talladega on his record and is starting 27th today. My favorite play in the field.

Value Picks

Ryan Truex ($7,000) – It wouldn’t be a Daytona writeup without mentioning the driver starting in last place. Truex has limited experience on superspeedways in the Xfinity Series, but he is the only driver who can’t score negative points today. If he plays it smart, he could have a huge DFS performance.

Tommy Joe Martins ($6,500) – TJM never has the best equipment, but he has fared decently at superspeedways. He has the 7th best average finish at this track type in the field with only 1 finish outside the top 20.

Final Lap

You know the name of the game. STACK THE BACK and let variance take control. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show!

If you have any questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter or hit me up in the Ronin Discord channel!