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NASCAR DFS Xfinity Series Preview | A-GAME 200 | Dover Speedway

Nascar DFS Xfinity

NASCAR DFS Xfinity Series Preview | A-GAME 200 | Dover Speedway

By: Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS)

After the unpredictable nature of Bristol Dirt and Talladega, I could not be more excited for NASCAR to get back to a “normal” track in Dover Speedway. It is a unique track that can produce the occasional snoozefest, but Dover should be quite entertaining for the Xfinity Series. 

Dover Speedway is a 1.0-mile high-banked, concrete oval speedway that has been a staple on the Xfinity and Cup Series schedules for many years. There are multiple racing grooves, allowing for some great side-by-side racing at times, but the best teams still prevail. 26 of the past 29 winners at Dover started 8th or better and all raced for one of the elite teams in the series. Saturday’s race is scheduled for 200 laps, yielding a maximum of 136 dominator points.

There is no other track exactly like it, but there are several that can be used for analysis. Bristol is the closest match being a high banked concrete surface, but it is a half-mile. Homestead and Darlington are similar in banking but both are asphalt tracks and have higher tire wear. Nashville could also be considered as another concrete surface though it is much flatter. Thus, most decisions should be based on Dover history itself, while using the others for supplemental analysis. 

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NASCAR DFS Xfinity Series Preview

Lineup Construction and Trends

Roster at least 2 drivers in the top 10. 

Over the last 5 races at Dover (only ones with DraftKings contests), 4 optimal lineups have featured at least 2 drivers from the top 10. The only exception was the 2nd race here in 2020, which was the back half of a doubleheader. Qualifying was set by inverting the top 20 finishers in the first race and thus had a profound influence on DraftKings scoring. 53% of drivers with a top 10 DraftKings score over the past 10 Dover races came from a starting position of 10th or better, compared to 8% for those starting 30th or worse.

Roster at least 1 driver starting 30th or worse.

I know, I know. I just said that those starting in the back don’t typically score very well. However, with 200 laps, finding the right dominators is essential. Most of the time, they came from a high-priced tier, meaning that a punt play is needed for salary relief even if they do not hit value. Each of the past 5 Dover races has featured at least 1 driver starting in the back in the optimal lineup. While there is a huge discrepancy between top 10 DraftKings score prevalence, 23.3% of optimal lineup appearances came from this starting range compared to 36.7% for drivers starting in the top 10.

Target drivers starting in the first 3 rows as potential dominators.

87.1% of drivers leading 15 or more laps achieved a top 5 DraftKings score and 81.3% made the optimal lineup, showing how important dominator points are compared to place differential. 25/31 (80.6%) of drivers leading 15 or more laps over the past 10 Dover races started the race 6th or better. Furthermore, drivers starting on the front row (1st and 2nd) have combined to lead an average of 90.1 laps per race since 2017, with the minimum combined total being 33 laps. At least 1 driver should be rostered from this range.

Utilize a “stars-and-scrubs” approach to an extent.

Each of the optimal lineups for the past five Xfinity Series races at Dover has followed a similar lineup build. Start with two drivers priced at or above $10,000. These drivers should provide dominator potential and be able to achieve 5.5x value. In addition to these two drivers, roster another driver priced above $8,500. Using past lineups as reference, this driver should either also have dominator potential or the ability to gain at least 10 positions.

As previously mentioned, a driver starting worse than 30th is usually needed to be optimal. That driver has typically been priced less than $6,000. Rostering 1 to 2 drivers in this price range may be needed to fit in all the dominator points we can.

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Best of luck! Don’t forget to check out the core plays, race notes, and study hub to complete your lineup preparation. If you have any questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter or hit me up in the Team Rise or Fall Discord!