NASCAR DraftKings Preview | June 24-25, 2022 | Trucks/Xfinity
NASCAR DraftKings Preview | June 24-25, 2022 | Trucks/Xfinity
By: Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS)
Welcome to another NASCAR DraftKings Preview! The point of this preview is to give you an idea of how winning lineups are constructed at a specific track. This week, the Trucks and Xfinity Series will be racing at Nashville Superspeedway.
Nashville is a 1.33-mile concrete oval with 14° banking in the corners, making it unique in several ways. The only other concrete tracks on the circuit are Bristol and Dover, both of which are steeper and shorter in length. The only other 1.33-mile track on the schedule is Darlington, which is also steeper and has higher tire wear. The banking at Nashville is similar to that seen at Gateway, New Hampshire, Phoenix, and Richmond.
Needless to say, analysis via performance at comparable tracks is tough this week. Also, this is just the second year NASCAR has raced in Nashville since 2011. From my “couch racer” perspective when watching last year’s races, Nashville seemed to run more like an intermediate track, but with heavy braking seen normally at the shorter, flatter tracks. Thus, I will mainly be prioritizing data from the most recent 10 races at the tracks listed above (excluding Bristol) when building lineups this weekend since they each contribute to similar racing styles.
To utilize Team Rise or Fall’s resources to their full potential, check out the additional NASCAR content at the NASCAR DFS Home Page, where you can find:
Stage 1: Rackley Roofing 200 (Truck Series)
Roster at least 3 drivers starting in the top 20. – Over the past 10 Truck Series races at similar tracks, 76% of top 10 DraftKings scores came from drivers starting 20th or better. At least one driver should come from the top 6 as at least one driver in each race from this range has led 40+ laps.
Roster two drivers priced above $9,000 and none priced lower than $5,000. – The past 10 optimal lineups at similar tracks all followed the same lineup construction, in addition to last year’s Nashville race. Given the difficult passing and fewer wrecks, it is fairly uncommon for punts to pay off at this track.
Roster no more than 1 driver starting worse than 30th. – Only 8% of drivers achieving a top 10 DraftKings score at similar tracks have started this far back. To be considered, these drivers must have potential to score dominator points (for example, if a top driver has to skip qualifying and start in the rear) or score at least 15 place differential points, meaning top 20 finishing potential is a must.
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Stage 2: Tennessee Lottery 250 (Xfinity Series)
Roster 1 to 2 drivers starting in the top 10. – 40% of top 10 DraftKings scores at this track type since 2020 have come from drivers starting in the top 10. This makes sense given their potential to lead laps and score dominator points.
Roster 3 or more drivers starting 20th or better. – Similar to the Truck Series, 70% of top 10 scores have come from this range. As passing becomes more difficult, cars are more spread out, meaning less wrecks and variance. Thus, drivers with perceived lack of upside are actually able to have strong performances and block those with the greatest upside from achieving their full potential.
When choosing drivers starting near the back, the further back the better. – This is in contrast to the Truck Series. More drivers achieve top 10 scores when starting worse than 30th than if they start 21st to 30th. If there is any variance, drivers starting near the back will gain positions, while those starting in the 20s may be “locked in” to finishing near where they start. The 20s have less dominating potential than those ahead of them and less place differential upside than those starting worse.
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Be on the lookout for our driver pool, updated projections in the NASCAR Study Hub, and core picks, and we’ll see you in victory lane!
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