NASCAR DraftKings Preview – Truck Series | Richmond | August 13, 2022
NASCAR DraftKings Preview – Truck Series | Richmond | August 13, 2022
By: Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS)
Welcome to this week’s NASCAR DraftKings Preview! The Xfinity Series is off this weekend, but the Truck and Cup Series will be headed to Richmond.
Richmond International Raceway is a 0.75-mile tri-oval with relatively flat banking. Today’s Truck Series race is scheduled for 250 laps. Nailing the right combination of dominators is essential to DFS success at short tracks due to the increased number of laps and thus, dominator points available.
Comparable tracks that have been raced on already this season include Indianapolis Raceway Park (IRP), Gateway, and, to a much lesser extent, Martinsville, all of which are flatter tracks less than or equal to 1 mile in length. Phoenix is another comparable track, though the drivers won’t race there until the championship race. It has been said that Richmond and Phoenix are reverse versions of each other. Speed is sustained by momentum through the corners onto the straightaways. IRP and Gateway fit that same profile, while Martinsville is more of a rhythm track with an emphasis on precise braking.
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Lineup Construction and Trends
Before going any further, it should be noted that the Truck Series has only raced at Richmond twice since 2005. Both occasions were in 2020 and 2021, meaning that the starting lineups were set by a formula instead of qualifying. There was also no practice. Therefore, the data with regard to optimal lineups from those races is limited in its relevance.
Dominators will likely come from the top 6. – The top three dominators from the past 11 races at similar tracks started 6th or better 63.6% of the time. That percentage would likely be higher if not for the lack of qualifying in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID. So far in 2022, most of the fast trucks from elite race teams have qualified up front, so this trend should continue.
Avoid drivers starting worse than 30th if in less than average equipment. – Over the past 10 comparable races, only 8.9% of top 10 DraftKings scores came from drivers starting 30th or worse. Furthermore, most of those instances came from drivers with top 10 potential who either qualified poorly or were victims of the formula used to set the field last season. Punts are likely to go multiple laps down and will only pay off if there is carnage. Beware though; last year’s Richmond race saw 11 cautions for a whopping 79 laps, allowing for punts to pay off through variance and attrition.
Roster at least 3 drivers starting in the top 20. – Optimal lineup roster spots at similar tracks since 2020 have been drivers starting 20th or better 57.4% of the time. Likewise, 72.7% of top 10 DraftKings scores in those same races came from the same range. At least one of these drivers should be a dominator option from the top 10.
Roster two drivers priced above $9,000 and none priced lower than $5,000. – The past 13 optimal lineups at similar tracks all followed the same lineup construction. Given the difficult passing and fewer wrecks, it is fairly unlikely for punts to pay off at this track.
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