NASCAR DraftKings Preview | Trucks/Xfinity Series | July 29-30, 2022

NASCAR DraftKings Preview | Trucks/Xfinity Series | July 29-30, 2022

By: Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS)

Welcome to another NASCAR DraftKings Preview! The point of this preview is to give you an idea of how winning lineups are constructed at a specific track. While all series will be in Indianapolis this weekend, they won’t be racing the same track. The Truck Series will be at Indianapolis Raceway Park (IRP), while Xfinity and Cup will be racing the Indianapolis road course (Indy GP).. It should be an interesting week for DFS, having to prepare for two different track types, but we’ll do the best we can here at Team Rise or Fall!

To utilize Team Rise or Fall’s resources to their full potential, check out the additional NASCAR content at the NASCAR DFS Home Page, where you can find:

Core Plays

NASCAR Study Hub

NASCAR Pool/Notes

Stage 1: TSport 200 (Truck Series)

The Truck Series will be returning to Indianapolis Raceway Park, also known as Lucas Oil Raceway, for the first time since 2011. Data will be limited as far as track history goes, but there are several comparable tracks we can take a look at this week. 

IRP is a 0.69-mile asphalt oval with relatively flat 14 degree banking. Practice will tell us a lot, but I’m expecting it to be primarily a one-groove track, thus making passing difficult and track position of utmost importance, whether it’s gained on pit road or restarts. Comparable tracks include Gateway, Richmond, Phoenix, and Martinsville

Dominators will likely come from the top 6. The top three dominators from the past 10 races at similar tracks started 6th or better 63.6% of the time. That percentage would likely be higher if not for the lack of qualifying in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID. So far in 2022, most of the fast trucks from elite race teams have qualified up front.

Avoid drivers starting worse than 30th if less than average equipment. Over the past 10 comparable races, only 8.1% of top 10 DraftKings scores came from drivers starting 30th or worse. Furthermore, the majority of those instances came from drivers with top 10 potential who either qualified poorly or were victims of the formula used to set the field last season. Punts are likely to go multiple laps down and will only pay off if there is carnage. 

Roster at least 3 drivers starting in the top 20. Optimal lineup roster spots at similar tracks since 2020 have been drivers starting 20th or better 61.7% of the time. Likewise, 72.7% of top 10 DraftKings scores in those same races came from the same range. At least one of these drivers should be the dominator option from the top 10.

Roster two drivers priced above $9,000 and none priced lower than $5,000. The past 12 optimal lineups at similar tracks all followed the same lineup construction. Given the difficult passing and fewer wrecks, it is fairly unlikely for punts to pay off at this track.

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Stage 2: Pennzoil 150 at The Brickyard (Xfinity Series)

The Xfinity Series will be racing the Indianapolis road course as they have done for the past two years. The track is made up of Indianpolis Motor Speedway’s frontstretch and infield. There are little to no elevation changes, and turns are tight for the most part. There are also several Cup drivers entered in Saturday’s race to gain more experience at the track. While I’m very excited to see the stacked field, DFS could be more unpredictable with so many strong drivers and cars.

Restarts could be quite hectic, so I am expecting a lot of carnage and will be embracing the potential variance. Luckily, in recent years, NASCAR has increased the amount of road course races on the schedule, so we do have some data to base our lineups off of.

Roster no more than 2 drivers starting in the top 10. Since the track length is longer, there are less laps and thus less dominator points available. Because of that, there should be more emphasis on place differential upside. 80% of the past 10 road course optimal lineups have featured no more than 2 dominators. On average, 1.7 drivers per race make the optimal lineup starting in the top 10.

Roster 2+ drivers starting worse than 25th. Drivers starting worse than 30th should be able to finish in the top 20, while drivers starting 25th to 30th need to have top 15 upside. On average, 2.2 drivers in each optimal lineup start in this range. Given the expected carnage, I see no reason why not to prioritize these drivers. 

Some drivers are just better than others at road courses. In 2021, Ty Gibbs was optimal in 3 of the 6 road course races he was in, ranking top 10 in driver rating in each of the others despite poor finishes. AJ Allmendinger made 4 optimal lineups and is renowned for his prowess on this track type, also winning at COTA earlier this season. Both of these drivers, as well as the Cup ringers, should be considered potential race winners on Saturday..

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Be on the lookout for our driver pool, updated projections in the NASCAR Study Hub, and core picks, and we’ll see you in victory lane!

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