NASCAR DraftKings Preview – Xfinity Series | Michigan | August 6, 2022
NASCAR DraftKings Preview – Xfinity Series | Michigan | August 6, 2022
By: Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS)
Welcome to this week’s NASCAR DraftKings Preview! The Truck Series is off this weekend, but the Xfinity and Cup Series will be headed to Michigan.
Michigan International Speedway is a 2.0-mile asphalt oval with low to moderate tire wear that has been a staple on the Xfinity and Cup Series schedules for many years. Other than being a “home track” for General Motors and Ford, Michigan is known for its wide racing surface and multiple racing grooves.
Though we have not been to Michigan yet this season, there are fortunately several comparable tracks that can be used for analysis. Other moderate tire wear intermediate tracks to consider are Charlotte, Texas, Las Vegas, and Kansas. Auto Club Speedway is the only other 2.0-mile track on the circuit, but it has much more tire degradation and thus should only be used for supplementary analysis.
JR Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing have dominated this track type for the most part this season. Kaulig Racing and Richard Childress Racing drivers have had top 5 potential, but have been slightly behind in green flag speed. Expect the winner to come from one of these elite teams since Michigan is a track where engine performance is so paramount to success. Let’s dig in!
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Lineup Construction and Trends
Roster 3 drivers starting 24th or worse. – At intermediate tracks with low to moderate tire wear in 2021, 5 of 7 optimal lineups included exactly 3 drivers starting in the bottom ⅓ of the field. In the four comparable intermediate track races so far in 2022, all optimal lineups followed the same trend.
Roster 2+ drivers starting in the top 20. – This is another scenario that happened in 5 of 7 comparable races last season. Furthermore, 80% of these races featured exactly 2 drivers starting in the top 10. In 2022 at similar tracks, the same trend has been observed in 4 of 4 races. Over the past 9 Michigan races, 71.1% of top 10 DK scores have come from drivers starting in the top 20, while just 10% started 21st to 30th.
At least 1 driver should be priced less than $6,000. – 12 of the 13 intermediate track races in 2021, regardless of tire wear, featured at least one punt play from this price range. The lineup that did not included two drivers priced $6,100 and $6,200. Do not go too low though! Only six drivers priced below $5,000 made an optimal lineup over the past 20 intermediate races. Four of the six did start in the top 30, so crappy equipment and bad starting position is not typically a recipe for success.
Target drivers starting in the top 5 as potential dominators. – 63.6% of drivers who have led 20+ laps in the past 10 Michigan races started 6th or better. Nine of the ten top dominators started in the top 5, six of which started 1st or 2nd.
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