NASCAR DraftKings Preview – Xfinity Series | Crayon 200 | New Hampshire

NASCAR DraftKings Preview – Xfinity Series | Crayon 200 | New Hampshire

By: Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS)

Welcome to this week’s NASCAR DraftKings Preview! The Truck Series is off this weekend, but the Xfinity and Cup Series will be headed north to Loudon, New Hampshire.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a 1.0-mile flat-banked, asphalt true oval speedway that has been a staple on the Xfinity and Cup Series schedules for many years. The racing itself can be quite boring here at times, but it is typically more predictable from a DFS perspective due to a lack of passing. 

Though we have not been to New Hampshire yet this season, there are lucky several comparable tracks that can be used for analysis. The closest flat, short tracks in terms of banking and length are Phoenix and Richmond. Gateway is similar as well, but given its longer length, it tends to race like an intermediate track. Martinsville is half the size, but the paperclip-like shape and banking are very similar to New Hampshire. 

Eight of the last nine winners here started on the front row. Since Toyota entered NASCAR, they have won 11 of 13 Xfinity Series races at New Hampshire with Christopher Bell winning the past 3 consecutive races. However, the JR Motorsports Chevrolets have shown the most speed thus far this season, so it’s sure to be an intriguing slate to dissect. Saturday’s race is scheduled for 200 laps, yielding a maximum of 136 dominator points. Let’s dig in!

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Lineup Construction and Trends

Roster at least 2 drivers starting in the top 10. 

Over the last 5 races at New Hampshire, 62% of drivers who had a top 10 DraftKings score started in the top 10. Likewise, the past three optimal lineups here (only races at New Hampshire with DK slates) have featured exactly two drivers from the top 10. Data from comparable tracks has been a little more sporadic. However, on average, 1.6 drivers made the optimal lineup at these tracks.

Roster at least 1 punt priced less than $6,000, as long as they have top 20 upside.

In the last 12 optimal lineups at New Hampshire and comparable tracks, the last two roster spots have averaged a combined $11,400 ($5,700 individually) and 14 place differential points. Considering most of these drivers are starting 30th or worse, top 20 upside is a determining factor when narrowing the player pool. Along those lines, 7.3 drivers per race at this track type gain ten or more place differential points, which is nearly 20% of the field (or 30% when those starting in the top 10 are eliminated).

Target at least one driver starting in the top 6 as a potential dominator.

In each of the last 6 New Hampshire races dating back to 2016, the top lap leader has led at least 93 laps. Furthermore, the top two dominators have combined for over 165 laps led in each race. 9 of the 10 main dominators started 6th or better, with 7 of them starting 1st or 2nd. Likewise, at comp tracks, the polesitter has averaged 79 laps led and 2nd place has averaged 45 laps. Needless to say, with little passing, the front row is the place to be.

Utilize a “stars-and-scrubs” approach to an extent.

Each of the optimal lineups for Xfinity Series races at New Hampshire has followed a similar lineup build. Start with two drivers priced at or above $9,500. These drivers should provide dominator potential and be able to achieve 5x value. In addition to these two drivers, roster another driver priced above $8,500. Using past lineups as reference, this driver should either also have dominator potential or the ability to gain at least 10 positions. As previously mentioned, a punt is usually needed to be optimal.

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