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NASCAR DraftKings Preview | Xfinity Series | July 2, 2022

Nascar DFS Xfinity

NASCAR DraftKings Preview | Xfinity Series | July 2, 2022

By: Dustin Maybin (@CUPharmDFS)

Welcome to my weekly NASCAR DraftKings Preview! This weekend, the NASCAR Xfinity and Cup Series will be racing at Road America in Plymouth, Wisconsin. It is the third road course on the schedule in 2022. While this track type can at times be fairly predictable, 2022 has bucked that trend, especially a few weeks ago at Portland when rain played a huge role in the outcome. One thing is for certain; rain or shine, Team Rise or Fall will end up on top! Let’s dig in…

Pace Laps

Road America is a 4.048-mile road course with 14 turns, making it the longest track on the circuit. Drivers are able to carry higher speeds into the corners here than they do at Sonoma and Portland, among others. It is more similar in style to COTA, ROVAL, and Watkins Glen. Compared to other road courses, Road America does produce more tire wear, meaning that drivers must be cognizant of not using up their equipment too early. (The track is scheduled to be repaved later this year.) The weather this weekend is expected to be clear, eliminating some potential variance.

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Rise or Fall header

Stage 1: Trends to Know

There are some important decisions to be made at every salary range for today’s Xfinity Series race. Since Austin Cindric matriculated to the Cup Series, AJ Allmendinger is the clear-cut best road course racer in Xfinity, though Ty Gibbs isn’t far behind. The addition of Cup ringers like Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, and Cole Custer and usual frontrunners like Noah Gragson and Justin Allgaier further complicates things, but it makes for an intriguing DFS slate!

  • 93.6% of drivers making an optimal lineup at a road course since 2020 achieved a top 10 DraftKings score. This illustrates that there have been few occasions where a punt play underachieved but made the optimal lineup due to salary relief needed for a top dominator. All of these drivers scored at least 37 DK points.

  • With regard to salary, 9 of 13 optimal lineups spent at least $49,000. The other 4 were at “hybrid” road courses, such as Daytona RC, Charlotte ROVAL, and Indianapolis Grand Prix. More carnage tends to occur at those pseudo-road courses while cars tend to spread out more at tracks like COTA, Watkins Glen, and Road America, leading to less huge performances from cheap drivers. Despite leaving less than $1,000 on the table, 11 of the past 13 optimal lineups at road courses have rostered at least one driver priced less than $6,000.

  • Since 2020, 76.9% of optimal lineups at road courses have included 2+ drivers starting in the top 10. For what it is worth, in 11 of these 13 races, a driver starting on the front row has led double-digit laps. 93.6% of optimal lineup appearances featured drivers finishing in the top 15, while 93.6% also achieved at least 5x value. Thus, simply a solid finish can still contribute greatly toward a DFS performance at this track. It should be noted that in the 3 races at Road America since DFS was introduced, each lineup has featured just one driver starting in the top 10.

  • Be wary of playing drivers starting in the top 5. Dominator points are always nice, but there are not many to go around at road course races, especially in these lower series. In fact, there are only 45 laps in today’s race, meaning a maximum of 30 dominator points. Though Kyle Larson and Ty Gibbs are arguably 2 of the best road course racers in the series, I’ll limit my exposure drastically. In order for either to achieve the desires 5x value, either driver would have to lead approximately half the race

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NASCAR DraftKings Preview

Stage 2: Favorite Drivers to Watch

  • A.J. Allmendinger ($11,300) – Allmendinger, Larson, and Gibbs appear to be on a different level than the rest of the field, and I fully expect one of these three to win the race. He is starting dead last with winning upside, making him the easiest core play on the slate. Making the optimal lineup in 7 of the past 10 road course races, Allmendinger should once again prove to be a great DFS play.

  • Andy Lally ($7,900) – Lally is one of the road course “ringers” participating in today’s race. He brings an extensive road racing background with experience driving in a variety of different cars. Lally has top 10 upsides, finishing no worse than 15th in five races at Road America. Given the other drivers in this price range and/or starting position range, I hope he goes underowned.

  • Brandon Brown ($5,900) – I don’t think I’ve ever seen him priced this cheap. He has dropped from a top 10 to more of a top 15 car since the “Let’s Go, Brandon” fiasco, but he still has great upside at this price and starting position. Brown finished 12th and 20th in the two road course races earlier this season, and he needs to finish just 24th to hit 5x value.

Final Lap

When building your lineups, be sure to look over scrosby’s race notes, the NASCAR Study Hub, and our core picks! For more information on how to maximize your ROI using Fantasy Cruncher, we have you covered here!

For updates after qualifying or if you have any questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter or hit me up in the Team Rise or Fall Discord!