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NBA DFS Lineup Study 3/19/2022

NBA DFS

Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups eacy day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

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I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Day 10 of NBA Lineup Study.  Let’s talk about this in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-nba channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing. 

Reminder, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only.  For like sized slates today, I compared the 4 slates I have tracked in the 10 and above game range as last night was a 12 game slate.

Today’s thought is about ownership in regard to slate size.  I pointed this out in discord this morning, but the ownership on a 12 game slate is much more spread out than ownership on a small slate. Last night’s winning lineups were built vastly different, with one of the winners only having 1 player under 10% owner while the other had 5 players under 10%. In yesterday’s $15 150 max, only 6 players were over 20% owned. 20 players were between 10%-20% owned. The rest of the players were under 10% owned. It doesn’t take much to be different on bigger slates. 

Let’s get to the stats.

Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 12 players. 

Rating – 12 out of 12 players had a rating over 50.  Total over 10 slates is 86.49%%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 93.48%.   Rating – 11 out of 12 players had a rating over 60.  Total over 10 slates is 79.28%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 89.13%. 

Rise – 12 out of 12 players had a Rise% over 25%.  Total over 10 slates is 91.89%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 97.83%.  Rise – 12 out of 12 players had a Rise% over 30%.  Total over 10 slates is 81.08%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 95.65%.

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

A or B – 12 out of 12 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 10 slates is 84.68%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 93.48%.

Projected Value – 12 out of 12 players had a Projected Value over 4.5.  Total over 10 slates is 91.89%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 95.65%.   Projected Value – 11 out of 12 players had a Projected Value over 5.0.  Total over 10 slates is 73.87%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 82.61%.

Actual Minutes – 12 out of 12 players had Actual Minutes over 25.  Total over 10 slates is 92.79%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 95.65%.  Actual Minutes – 9 out of 12 players had Actual Minutes over 30.  Total over 10 slates is 74.77%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 82.61%

Ceiling – 11 out of 12 players had a Ceiling over 30.  Total over 10 slates is 85.59%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 82.61%.  Ceiling – 10 out of 12 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 10 slates is 72.07%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 71.74%.

Projection – 12 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20.  Total over 10 slates is 86.49%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 84.78%. Projection – 11 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25.  Total over 10 slates is 75.68%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 71.74%. Projection – 8 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30.  Total over 10 slates is 54.95%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 52.17%.

Utility – Yesterday the winners both used a C eligible player in the utility position.  Total over 10 slates is 60% Center, 30% PG, 5% SG and 5% PF.

Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a PG eligible player was used in both lineups at Guard and a PF eligible player was used at the Forward spot in both lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 85% of the time over 10 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 60% of the time at the Forward spot.

Ownership – The winning lineups used 1 and 5 players under 10% owned respectively.  Total over 10 slates for number of players under 10% used – 35% used 1 under 10%, 20% used 2 under 10%, 20% used 4 under 10%, 10% used 3 under 10%, 10% used 5 under 10%, and 5% used 0 under 10%.

Salary – Salary used yesterday was $50,000 and $49,900 for the winners.  Total over 10 slates – $50,000 salary used in 50%, $49,900 salary used in 25%, $49,800 salary used in 20%, $49,300 used in 5%.  At least a $49,800 salary was used 95% of the time in the 10 slates.  Total over 4 like sized slates – 87.5% of the time salary in the 4 like sized slates was $49,800 or over. 

Remember, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel. 

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