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NBA DFS Lineup Study 3/20/2022

NBA DFS

Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Today is Day 11 of NBA Lineup Study.  Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-nba channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing. 

Also, since today is Sunday, that means we have a NASCAR race today!  We have a great staff of NASCAR coaches, and this article by Nate is a must read for anyone looking to build winning NASCAR lineups today! https://teamriseorfall.com/fohqt-500-top-5-nascar-dfs-targets-draftkings/

Reminder, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only.  For like sized slates today, I compared the 3 slates I have tracked in the 2-4 game range as last night was a 3 game slate.

Today’s thought is about small slates versus bigger slates.  With the playoffs approaching, we need to start understanding smaller slates as well.  One thing to note, minutes and projected fantasy points are still consistent on smaller slates.  With last night only having 6 teams playing, there was an opportunity to see a wider range of the rating style stats such as Rating and Rise%.  The trend is to open up a little bit on your thresholds for using Rating and the Rise%, but keep in mind that minutes still equals money.  What I mean by that is Minutes, Projected Fantasy Points, Projected Tier, Value Tier, and Value have all remained consistent no matter what sized slate we have studied.  Keep those in mind when building these smaller slates.    

Let’s get to the stats.

Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 12 players. 

Rating – 8 out of 12 players had a rating over 50.  Total over 11 slates is 84.55%%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 78.79%.  Rating – 6 out of 12 players had a rating over 60.  Total over 11 slates is 76.42%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 63.64%. 

Rise – 9 out of 12 players had a Rise% over 25%.  Total over 11 slates is 90.24%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 84.85%.  Rise – 6 out of 12 players had a Rise% over 30%.  Total over 11 slates is 78.05%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 66.67%.

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

A or B – 9 out of 12 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 11 slates is 83.74%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 69.70%.  BONUS – Want to see what our Projected Tier and Value Tier ratings look like for today’s slate?  We have made them free to you today on our website!  Download them right from this page and upload them into Fantasy Cruncher and you can use them to help build your winning lineup today.  https://t.co/W4H5XNmx9m

Projected Value – 9 out of 12 players had a Projected Value over 4.5.  Total over 11 slates is 90.24%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 84.85%.   Projected Value – 4 out of 12 players had a Projected Value over 5.0.  Total over 11 slates is 69.92%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 54.55%.

Actual Minutes – 11 out of 12 players had Actual Minutes over 25.  Total over 11 slates is 92.68%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 81.82%.  Actual Minutes – 7 out of 12 players had Actual Minutes over 30.  Total over 11 slates is 73.17%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 54.55%

Ceiling – 7 out of 12 players had a Ceiling over 30.  Total over 11 slates is 82.93%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 78.79%.  Ceiling – 6 out of 12 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 11 slates is 69.92%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 63.64%.

Projection – 10 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20.  Total over 11 slates is 86.18%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 87.88%. Projection – 7 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25.  Total over 11 slates is 73.98%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 69.70%. Projection – 5 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30.  Total over 11 slates is 53.66%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 51.52%.

Utility – Yesterday the winners used a C eligible player and a PG eligible player in the utility position.  Total over 11 slates is 59% Center, 31% PG, 5% SG and 5% PF.  Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a SG eligible player was used in both lineups at Guard and a PF and SF eligible player were used at the Forward spot in the 2 lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 77% of the time over 11 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 63% of the time at the Forward spot.  For like sized slates, the utility spot has shifted towards PG eligible players with PG being used in 66.7% of Utility spots.  I will keep my eye on this trend as we study more of these 2-4 game slates. 

Ownership – The winning lineups used 2 and 4 players under 10% owned respectively.  Total over 11 slates for number of players under 10% used – 32% used 1 under 10%, 23% used 2 under 10%, 23% used 4 under 10%, 9% used 3 under 10%, 9% used 5 under 10%, and 4% used 0 under 10%.

Salary – Salary used yesterday was $50,000 for both of the winners.  Total over 11 slates – $50,000 salary used in 54%, $49,900 salary used in 23%, $49,800 salary used in 18%, $49,300 used in 5%.  At least a $49,800 salary was used 95% of the time in the 11 slates.  Total over 3 like sized slates – 100% of the time salary in the 3 like sized slates was $49,800 or over. 

Remember, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel.

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