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NBA DFS Lineup Study 3/21/2022

NBA DFS

Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Today is Day 12 of NBA Lineup Study.  Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-NBA channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing. 

Today, we want you to be able to look at all of this data when making your lines.  That is why the NBA Study Hub is free on the website for you to explore and use the trends you are seeing in this lineup study to make your lineups! Just go here to view the study hub FREE today https://teamriseorfall.com/nba-dfs-study-hub/

For the lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only.  For like sized slates today, I compared the 5 slates I have tracked in the 5-9 game range as last night was a 7 game slate.

Today’s thought is about salary.  The question gets asked a lot in our discord, “How much salary is too much salary to leave on the table”?  I am here to tell you that in NBA, the winning lineups don’t like to leave salary on the table.  Here is a crazy stat for you, over 24 winning lineups I have studied, only 1 lineup had more than $200 left on the table when it was all said and done.  That means that 96% of the time the winners used at lease $49,800 in salary to create their winning lineups.  The salary is there.  Just use it, salary is not the place to get cute with your lineups in NBA DFS.        

Let’s get to the stats.

Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 11 players. 

Rating – 9 out of 11 players had a rating over 50.  Total over 12 slates is 84.33%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 83.64%.  Rating – 8 out of 11 players had a rating over 60.  Total over 12 slates is 76.12%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 72.73%.  BONUS – Last night 8 out of 11 players had a rating over 80.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 56.36%!

Rise – 11 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 25%.  Total over 12 slates is 91.04%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 89.09%.  Rise – 11 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 30%.  Total over 12 slates is 79.85%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 81.82%.

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

A or B – 9 out of 11 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 12 slates is 84.58%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 83.64%. 

Projected Value – 11 out of 11 players had a Projected Value over 4.5.  Total over 12 slates is 91.04%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 90.91%.   Projected Value – 9 out of 11 players had a Projected Value over 5.0.  Total over 12 slates is 70.90%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 70.91%.

Actual Minutes – 10 out of 11 players had Actual Minutes over 25.  Total over 12 slates is 92.54%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 96.36%.  Actual Minutes – 7 out of 11 players had Actual Minutes over 30.  Total over 12 slates is 72.39%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 74.55%

Ceiling – 9 out of 11 players had a Ceiling over 30.  Total over 12 slates is 82.84%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 85.45%.  Ceiling – 7 out of 11 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 12 slates is 69.40%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 70.91%.

Projection – 10 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20.  Total over 12 slates is 86.57%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 87.27%. Projection – 7 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25.  Total over 12 slates is 73.13%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 76.36%. Projection – 6 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30.  Total over 12 slates is 53.73%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 56.36%.

Utility – Yesterday both winners used a PG eligible player in the utility position.  Total over 12 slates is 54% Center, 38% PG, 4% SG and 4% PF.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 60% Center, 30% PG, and 10% SG.

Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a SG eligible player was used in both lineups at Guard and a PF and SF eligible player were used at the Forward spot in the 2 lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 71% of the time over 12 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 63% of the time at the Forward spot.  For like sized slates, the Guard spot is now 80% PG and 20% SG while the Forward spot is a 50/50 mix of PF and SF. 

Ownership – The winning lineups both used 2 under 10% owned respectively.  Total over 12 slates for number of players under 10% used – 29% used 1 under 10%, 29% used 2 under 10%, 21% used 4 under 10%, 8% used 3 under 10%, 8% used 5 under 10%, and 4% used 0 under 10%.

Salary – Salary used yesterday was $50,000 and $49,800 by the respective winners.  Total over 12 slates – $50,000 salary used in 54%, $49,900 salary used in 21%, $49,800 salary used in 21%, $49,300 used in 4%.  At least a $49,800 salary was used 96% of the time in the 12 slates.  Total over 5 like sized slates – 100% of the time salary in the 5 like sized slates was $49,800 or over. 

Remember, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel. Don’t forget to check out the free hub today too!

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