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NBA DFS Lineup Study 3/23/2022

NBA DFS

Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Today is Day 14 of NBA Lineup Study.  Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-nba channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

At Team Rise or Fall, we want to help you maximize your lineups to produce better results.  I give you trends daily through this lineup study while the coaches give you their picks as to who some of the better players are for that slate through their core picks.  Today, we are letting you see these core picks for free!  Click this link when building your lineups before lock and see who our coaches think are the key plays for tonight.  https://teamriseorfall.com/nba-cash-lineup-core-builds/    

For the lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only.  Last night the $15 150 max was an $18 150 max so I used that instead.  For like sized slates today, I compared the 4 slates I have tracked in the 2-4 game range as last night was a 4 game slate.

Today’s thought is about the ripple effect in your lineup.  Sometimes we get caught up on who is the best players to play on any given slate.  What we forget though is what happens when a player is announced as a starter which makes them a good play.  Many players just throw that player in a lineup and are happy that they see him in there.  Well, how many players look at what it did to the lineups as a whole?  Did adding that players cause another highly rated player to not be used as much?  Whenever you change even one player in your lineups, take a step back, look at your exposures and make sure you still have exposures to all the players you intended to have to begin with.  Don’t let one change of a player take you off another good player.         

Let’s get to the stats.

Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 12 players. 

Rating – 10 out of 12 players had a rating over 50.  Total over 14 slates is 85.44%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 80.00%.  Rating – 8 out of 12 players had a rating over 60.  Total over 14 slates is 77.22%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 64.44%. 

Rise – When something is going great, find a way to make it even better.  Instead of putting in the Rise data today, I will start it over tomorrow as we have made our Rise metric even better on the study hub! 

Ceiling/Target (+/-) – Wait, what?  New data coming tomorrow!

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

Do you want to have access to all of the tools Team Rise or Fall has to offer and get them in all sports? For new members, you can take $10 off of your first month when you use my promo code!  Click this link to subscribe and use promo code: Patkingpin to get $10 off your first month https://teamriseorfall.com/subscribe-now/

A or B – 8 out of 12 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 14 slates is 83.54%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 68.89%. 

Projected Value – 10 out of 12 players had a Projected Value over 4.5.  Total over 14 slates is 91.14%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 84.44%.   Projected Value – 7 out of 12 players had a Projected Value over 5.0.  Total over 14 slates is 70.89%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 55.56%.

Actual Minutes – 10 out of 12 players had Actual Minutes over 25.  Total over 14 slates is 92.41%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 82.22%.  Actual Minutes – 10 out of 12 players had Actual Minutes over 30.  Total over 14 slates is 73.42%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 62.22%

Ceiling – 10 out of 12 players had a Ceiling over 30.  Total over 14 slates is 82.91%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 80.00%.  Ceiling – 7 out of 12 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 14 slates is 67.72%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 62.22%.

Projection – 11 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20.  Total over 14 slates is 87.34%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 88.89%. Projection – 9 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25.  Total over 14 slates is 74.05%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 71.11%. Projection – 5 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30.  Total over 14 slates is 52.53%.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 48.89%.

Utility – Yesterday the winners used a C eligible player and a SG eligible player in the utility position.  Total over 14 slates is 57% Center, 32% PG, 7% SG and 4% PF.  Total over 4 like sized slates is 50% PG, 38% C, and 13% SG.

Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a PG eligible player was used in one lineup and a SG eligible player was used in another lineup at Guard and a PF eligible player was used at the Forward spot in both lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 71% of the time over 14 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 71% of the time at the Forward spot.  For like sized slates, the Guard spot is now 50% PG and 50% SG while the Forward spot is 75% PF and 25% SF. 

Ownership – The winning lineups both used 2 players under 10% owned.  Total over 14 slates for number of players under 10% used – 36% used 2 under 10%, 25% used 1 under 10%, 18% used 4 under 10%, 11% used 3 under 10%, 7% used 5 under 10%, and 4% used 0 under 10%. Total over 4 like sized slates is 50% used 1 under 10%, 38% used 2 under 10%, 13% used 4 under 10%. 

Salary – Salary used yesterday was $49,900 in both of the lineups.  Total over 14 slates – $50,000 salary used in 54%, $49,900 salary used in 25%, $49,800 salary used in 18%, $49,300 used in 4%.  At least a $49,800 salary was used 96% of the time in the 14 slates.  Total over 4 like sized slates – 100% of the time salary in the 4 like sized slates was $49,900 or over. 

That is our look at last night and the season, but tonight is an 11 game slate.  To look at trends for like sized slates for tonight, go back and look at my last lineup study from a slate this size https://teamriseorfall.com/nba-dfs-lineup-study-3-19-2022/ .

If you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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