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NBA DFS Lineup Study 3/24/2022

NBA DFS

Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Today is Day 15 of NBA Lineup Study.  Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-nba channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

With the NBA season winding down, now is the time to also learn some new sports.  Today, we have made the NHL Study Hub free for everyone who wants to try out NHL DFS.  Check out the NHL channel in our discord too where we have amazing strategy discussions on how to be successful in NHL DFS.  You can get to the NHL Study Hub by clicking this link. https://teamriseorfall.com/nhl-dfs-study-hub/    

For the lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only.  For like sized slates today, I compared the 5 slates I have tracked in the over 10 game range as last night was an 11 game slate.

Today’s thought is about changing your mindset.  When I started doing lineup studies, I saw a comment on discord about salary in small slates and how it is probably more spread out compared to large slates.  As I do more studies, I am finding the opposite to be true.  Larger slates have a bigger difference in salary.  Having an open mind to realize that you can use different pieces of information to improve your game is one of the keys to success in DFS. Some people like to be defensive about their process.  If you immediately want to argue why your way is better, you are closing your mind to ideas which could be the difference between 1st place and 10th place in a big tournament and ultimately cost yourself in the long run. Never stop learning, never stop evolving, never stop moving forward.                

Let’s get to the stats.

Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 11 players. 

Rating – 11 out of 11 players had a rating over 50.  Total over 15 slates is 86.39%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 94.74%.  Rating – 11 out of 11 players had a rating over 60.  Total over 15 slates is 78.70%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 91.23%. 

Rise – With the Rise% stat changing yesterday, we are starting this over.  From what I saw yesterday from the winners, let me try and find the new trends.  10 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 10%.  7 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 15%.  6 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 20%.  4 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 25%.  

Ceiling/Target (+/-) – Another new stat created to show the difference between a player’s ceiling and his Target (5x+10) score.  Trying to identify the trends with this one as well.  10 out of 11 players had a +/- above -3.  7 out of 11 players had a +/- above 0.  6 out of 11 players had a +/- above 3.  3 out of 11 players had a +/- above 5.

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

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A or B – 8 out of 11 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 15 slates is 82.84%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 89.47%. 

Projected Value – 11 out of 11 players had a Projected Value over 4.5.  Total over 15 slates is 91.72%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 96.49%.   Projected Value – 9 out of 11 players had a Projected Value over 5.0.  Total over 15 slates is 71.60%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 82.46%.

Actual Minutes – 11 out of 11 players had Actual Minutes over 25.  Total over 15 slates is 92.90%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 96.49%.  Actual Minutes – 11 out of 11 players had Actual Minutes over 30.  Total over 15 slates is 75.15%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 85.96%

Ceiling – 9 out of 11 players had a Ceiling over 30.  Total over 15 slates is 82.84%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 82.46%.  Ceiling – 8 out of 11 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 15 slates is 68.05%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 71.93%.

Projection – 9 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20.  Total over 15 slates is 86.98%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 84.21%. Projection – 9 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25.  Total over 15 slates is 74.56%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 73.68%. Projection – 7 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30.  Total over 15 slates is 53.25%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 54.39%.

Utility – Yesterday the winners used a C eligible player and a PG eligible player in the utility position.  Total over 15 slates is 57% Center, 33% PG, 7% SG and 3% PF.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 60% C, 30% PG, and 10% PF.

Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a PG eligible player was used in both lineups at Guard and a PF eligible player was used at the Forward spot in both lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 73% of the time over 15 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 70% of the time at the Forward spot.  For like sized slates, the Guard spot is 80% PG and 20% SG while the Forward spot is 80% PF and 20% SF. 

Ownership – The winning lineups used 4 and 5 players under 10% owned respectively.  Total over 15 slates for number of players under 10% used – 33% used 2 under 10%, 23% used 1 under 10%, 20% used 4 under 10%, 10% used 3 under 10%, 10% used 5 under 10%, and 3% used 0 under 10%. Total over 5 like sized slates is 30% used 5 under 10%, 20% used 1 under 10%, 20% used 2 under 10%, 20% used 4 under 10%, and 10% used 3 under 10%. 

Salary – Salary used yesterday was $49,600 and $49,000 in the winning lineups.  Total over 15 slates – $50,000 salary used in 50%, $49,900 salary used in 23%, $49,800 salary used in 17%, $49,600 used in 3%, $49,300 used in 3%, $49,000 used in 3%.  At least a $49,800 salary was used 90% of the time in the 15 slates.  Total over 5 like sized slates – 70% of the time salary in the 5 like sized slates was $49,800 or over while 30% it was $49,700 or under.    

That is our look at last night and the season, but tonight is a 5 game slate.  To look at trends for like sized slates for tonight, go back and look at my last lineup study from a slate in the mid-sized range https://teamriseorfall.com/nba-dfs-lineup-study-3-22-2022/ .

If you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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