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NBA DFS Lineup Study 3/25/2022

NBA DFS

Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Today is Day 16 of NBA Lineup Study.  Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-nba channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

It is the weekend which means another MMA slate for DFS.  Did you know Team Rise or Fall covers MMA as well?  Check out our MMA section where we have a ton of free content this weekend! Go see our MMA Study Hub here: https://teamriseorfall.com/mma-dfs-projections-study-hub/ and our core plays right here: https://teamriseorfall.com/mma-cash-core-plays/ Enjoy the fights!

For the NBA lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only.  For like sized slates today, I compared the slates I have tracked in the 5-9 game range as last night was a 5 game slate.

Today’s thought is about projected value.  Projected value is, quite simply, a player’s projection divided by his salary and then multiplied by 1000 to give us a nice number we can work with.  When you have good projections, value becomes a great measuring stick as to if a play is good or not.  Of the stats I track, Projected Value is the most consistent pre-slate stat that I have found so far.  Did you know that over 91% of the 180 players, I have tracked in winning lineups have a projected value of 4.5 or above?  Something to think about next time you are looking at a player to add or subtract from your player pools.          

Let’s get to the stats.

Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 11 players. 

Rating – 10 out of 11 players had a rating over 50.  Total over 16 slates is 86.67%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 87.18%.  Rating – 10 out of 11 players had a rating over 60.  Total over 16 slates is 79.44%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 79.49%. 

Rise – With the Rise% stat formula recently being adjusted for the better, we have a smaller sample size than the other stat categories.  11 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 5%.  Total over 2 slates is 95.45%.  8 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 10%.  Total over 2 slates is 86.36%.  8 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 15%.  Total over 2 slates is 68.18%.  7 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 20%.  Total over 2 slates is 59.09%.  3 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 25%.  Total over 2 slates is 31.82%.  This was the first mid-sized slate to use the Rise metric, so we do not have cumulative like size slate data as of yet. 

Ceiling/Target (+/-) – Another recently updated stat created to show the difference between a player’s ceiling and his Target (5x+10) score.  As with Rise, we have a smaller sample size here as well.  8 out of 11 players had a +/- above -3.  Total over 2 slates is 81.82%.  7 out of 11 players had a +/- above 0.  Total over 2 slates is 63.64%.  3 out of 11 players had a +/- above 3.  Total over 2 slates is 40.91%.  2 out of 11 players had a +/- above 5.  Total over 2 slates is 22.73%. This was the first mid-sized slate to use the Ceiling/Target (+/-) metric, so we do not have cumulative like size slate data as of yet.

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

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A or B – 10 out of 11 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 16 slates is 83.33%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 87.18%.  

Projected Value – 10 out of 11 players had a Projected Value over 4.5.  Total over 16 slates is 91.67%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 92.31%.   Projected Value – 8 out of 11 players had a Projected Value over 5.0.  Total over 16 slates is 71.67%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 73.08%.

Actual Minutes – 9 out of 11 players had Actual Minutes over 25.  Total over 16 slates is 92.22%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 94.87%.  Actual Minutes – 7 out of 11 players had Actual Minutes over 30.  Total over 16 slates is 74.44%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 73.08%

Ceiling – 11 out of 11 players had a Ceiling over 30.  Total over 16 slates is 83.89%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 87.18%.  Ceiling – 8 out of 11 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 16 slates is 68.33%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 69.23%.

Projection – 11 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20.  Total over 16 slates is 87.78%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 89.74%. Projection – 9 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25.  Total over 16 slates is 75.00%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 78.21%. Projection – 7 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30.  Total over 16 slates is 53.89%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 56.41%.

Utility – Yesterday both of the winners used a C eligible player in the utility position.  Total over 16 slates is 59% Center, 31% PG, 6% SG and 3% PF.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 71% C, 21% PG, and 7% SG.

Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a PG eligible player was used in both lineups at Guard and a PF eligible player was used at the Forward spot in both lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 75% of the time over 16 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 72% of the time at the Forward spot.  For like sized slates, the Guard spot is 86% PG while the Forward spot is 64% PF. 

Ownership – The winning lineups used 3 and 4 players under 10% owned respectively.  Total over 16 slates for number of players under 10% used – 31% used 2 under 10%, 22% used 1 under 10%, 22% used 4 under 10%, 13% used 3 under 10%, 9% used 5 under 10%, and 3% used 0 under 10%. Total over 7 like sized slates is 36% used 2 under 10%, 29% used 4 under 10%, 21% used 3 under 10%, 7% used 1 under 10%, and 7% used 0 under 10%. 

Salary – Salary used yesterday was $49,900 in both winning lineups.  Total over 16 slates – $50,000 salary used in 47%, $49,900 salary used in 28%, $49,800 salary used in 16%, $49,600 used in 3%, $49,300 used in 3%, $49,000 used in 3%.  At least a $49,800 salary was used 91% of the time in the 16 slates.  Total over 7 like sized slates – 100% of the time salary in the 7 like sized slates was $49,800 or over.    

That is our look at last night and the season. Tonight we have a 7 game slate.  To look at trends for like sized slates for tonight, all you have to do is look for the like sized slates in this article!

If you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have. 

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