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NBA DFS Lineup Study 3/27/2022

NBA DFS

Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Today is Day 18 of NBA Lineup Study.  Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-nba channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

For the NBA lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only.  For like sized slates today, I compared the slates I have tracked in the 5-9 game range as last night was a 7 game slate.

Today’s thought is about trends, not truths. I will be honest; I have always known that weekend DFS is not for someone looking to get an easy answer as to how to build a lineup and last night was the proof.  As we look at the study for last night, it is important to remember that we may see trends over time, but these are really just trends, they aren’t a hard rule how to play DFS, especially on a weekend where we had a fire delay a game and a player decide his break was too long and he didn’t want to get back in the game.  What we are going to see below is the outlier that happens in DFS once in a while.  It happens.  Give a tip of the cap to those in the DFS world who had top scores last night and move onto today.  After all, that is why it is Daily Fantasy Sports, we can move on when the trends are not truths for one slate. 

Let’s get to the stats.

Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 13 players. 

Rating – 8 out of 13 players had a rating over 50.  Total over 18 slates is 85.37%.  Total over 9 like sized slates is 84.47%.  Rating – 3 out of 13 players had a rating over 60.  Total over 18 slates is 76.10%.  Total over 9 like sized slates is 72.82%. 

Rise – With the Rise% stat formula recently being adjusted for the better, we have a smaller sample size than the other stat categories.  9 out of 13 players had a Rise% over 5%.  Total over 4 slates is 85.11%.  4 out of 13 players had a Rise% over 10%.  Total over 4 slates is 68.09%.  3 out of 13 players had a Rise% over 15%.  Total over 4 slates is 55.32%.  2 out of 13 players had a Rise% over 20%.  Total over 4 slates is 42.55%.   

Ceiling/Target (+/-) – Another recently updated stat created to show the difference between a player’s ceiling and his Target (5x+10) score.  As with Rise, we have a smaller sample size here as well.  5 out of 13 players had a +/- above -3.  Total over 4 slates is 70.21%.  3 out of 13 players had a +/- above 0.  Total over 4 slates is 53.19%.  2 out of 13 players had a +/- above 3.  Total over 2 slates is 31.91%.  Rise% and Ceiling/Target like sized slate data is roughly the same as the overall data as 3 out of the 4 slates we have looked at have been in the like sized slate range.

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

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A or B – 4 out of 13 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 18 slates is 79.51%.  Total over 9 like sized slates is 78.64%. 

Projected Value – 9 out of 13 players had a Projected Value over 4.5.  Total over 18 slates is 89.76%.  Total over 9 like sized slates is 88.35%.   Projected Value – 4 out of 13 players had a Projected Value over 5.0.  Total over 18 slates is 68.78%.  Total over 9 like sized slates is 66.99%.

Actual Minutes – 12 out of 13 players had Actual Minutes over 25.  Total over 18 slates is 91.71%.  Total over 9 like sized slates is 93.20%.  Actual Minutes – 9 out of 13 players had Actual Minutes over 30.  Total over 18 slates is 72.68%.  Total over 9 like sized slates is 69.90%

Ceiling – 12 out of 13 players had a Ceiling over 30.  Total over 18 slates is 84.88%.  Total over 9 like sized slates is 88.35%.  Ceiling – 5 out of 13 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 18 slates is 67.32%.  Total over 9 like sized slates is 66.99%.

Projection – 12 out of 13 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20.  Total over 18 slates is 87.80%.  Total over 9 like sized slates is 89.32%. Projection – 9 out of 13 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25.  Total over 18 slates is 73.66%.  Total over 9 like sized slates is 74.76%. Projection – 3 out of 13 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30.  Total over 18 slates is 52.20%.  Total over 9 like sized slates is 52.43%.

Utility – Yesterday winners used a C eligible and a PG eligible player in the utility position.  Total over 18 slates is 58% Center, 31% PG, 6% SG and 6% PF.  Total over 9 like sized slates is 67% C, 22% PG, 6% PF, and 6% SG.

Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a PG eligible player was used in both lineups at Guard and a PF eligible and SF eligible player were used at the Forward spot in the winning lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 78% of the time over 18 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 72% of the time at the Forward spot.  For like sized slates, the Guard spot is 89% PG while the Forward spot is 67% PF. 

Ownership – The winning lineups used 3 and 4 players under 10% owned respectively.  Total over 18 slates for number of players under 10% used – 31% used 2 under 10%, 22% used 1 under 10%, 22% used 4 under 10%, 14% used 3 under 10%, 8% used 5 under 10%, and 3% used 0 under 10%. Total over 9 like sized slates is 33% used 2 under 10%, 28% used 4 under 10%, 22% used 3 under 10%, 11% used 1 under 10%, and 6% used 0 under 10%. 

Salary – Salary used yesterday was $50,000 in both winning lineups.  Total over 18 slates – $50,000 salary used in 53%, $49,900 salary used in 25%, $49,800 salary used in 14%, $49,600 used in 3%, $49,300 used in 3%, $49,000 used in 3%.  At least a $49,800 salary was used 92% of the time in the 18 slates.  Total over 9 like sized slates – 100% of the time salary in the 9 like sized slates was $49,800 or over.    

That is our look at last night and the season. Tonight, we have a 6 game slate.  To look at trends for like sized slates for tonight, all you have to do is look for the like sized slates in this article!

If you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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