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NBA DFS Lineup Study 3/29/2022

NBA DFS

Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Today is Day 20 of NBA Lineup Study.  Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-nba channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

Last night, I had some fun and played NHL DFS.  The NHL Study Hub added in the Projected and Value Tier ratings (A/B ratings).  Just like in NBA they didn’t disappoint.  I highly recommend trying out our NHL Study Hub as well.  In fact, today it is free on the website for everyone!  Click here tonight before lock to give it a try! https://teamriseorfall.com/nhl-dfs-study-hub/

For the NBA lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only.  For like sized slates today, I compared the slates I have tracked in the 5-9 game range as last night was a 9 game slate.

Today’s thought is why it is important to track trends over time.  When we looked at weekend DFS, we saw some fluctuations from our normal trends.  Last night, as you are about to read, we saw the trends fall right back into expected values and then some.  This is why we want to see a sample size of not only the good slates but the bad slates also.  It will give us a great representation of the overall trend picture.    Side note, who would have thought last night, on a 9 game slate, you really only needed one game and Jokic to take down the big tournaments.  How many is too many?  Well, last night, the answer is “as many as you could fit into a lineup”. 

Let’s get to the stats.

Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 8 players.  For the first time in 20 days, we have the same players in both winning lineups.

Rating – 8 out of 8 players had a rating over 50.  Total over 20 slates is 85.78%.  Total over 11 like sized slates is 85.37%.  Rating – 8 out of 8 players had a rating over 60.  Total over 20 slates is 75.56%.  Total over 11 like sized slates is 72.36%.

Rise – With the Rise% stat formula recently being adjusted for the better, we have a smaller sample size than the other stat categories.  8 out of 8 players had a Rise% over 5%.  Total over 6 slates is 89.55%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 89.29%.  8 out of 8 players had a Rise% over 10%.  Total over 6 slates is 73.13%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 67.86%.  8 out of 8 players had a Rise% over 15%.  Total over 6 slates is 58.21%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 57.14%.   

Ceiling/Target (+/-) – Another recently updated stat created to show the difference between a player’s ceiling and his Target (5x+10) score.  As with Rise, we have a smaller sample size here as well.  8 out of 8 players had a +/- above -3.  Total over 6 slates is 76.12%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 73.21%.  8 out of 8 players had a +/- above 0.  Total over 6 slates is 55.22%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 53.57%.

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

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A or B – 8 out of 8 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 20 slates is 80.44%.  Total over 11 like sized slates is 80.493%. 

Projected Value – 8 out of 8 players had a Projected Value over 4.5.  Total over 20 slates is 90.22%.  Total over 11 like sized slates is 89.43%.   Projected Value – 8 out of 8 players had a Projected Value over 5.0.  Total over 20 slates is 69.78%.  Total over 11 like sized slates is 69.11%.

Actual Minutes – 8 out of 8 players had Actual Minutes over 25.  Total over 20 slates is 92%.  Total over 11 like sized slates is 93.50%.  Actual Minutes – 8 out of 8 players had Actual Minutes over 30.  Total over 20 slates is 73.78%.  Total over 11 like sized slates is 72.36%

Ceiling – 8 out of 8 players had a Ceiling over 30.  Total over 20 slates is 84.44%.  Total over 11 like sized slates is 86.99%.  Ceiling – 7 out of 8 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 20 slates is 67.56%.  Total over 11 like sized slates is 67.48%.

Projection – 8 out of 8 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20.  Total over 20 slates is 88.44%.  Total over 11 like sized slates is 90.24%. Projection – 7 out of 8 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25.  Total over 20 slates is 73.78%.  Total over 11 like sized slates is 74.80%. Projection – 5 out of 8 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30.  Total over 20 slates is 52%.  Total over 11 like sized slates is 52.03%.

Utility – Yesterday winners both used a C eligible player in the utility position.  Total over 20 slates is 58% Center, 30% PG, 8% SG and 5% PF.  Total over 11 like sized slates is 64% C, 23% PG, 9% SG, and 5% PF.

Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a PG eligible player was used in both lineups at Guard and a PF eligible player was used at the Forward spot in the winning lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 80% of the time over 20 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 75% of the time at the Forward spot.  For like sized slates, the Guard spot is 91% PG while the Forward spot is 73% PF. 

Ownership – The winning lineups both used 1 player under 10% owned.  Total over 20 slates for number of players under 10% used – 30% used 2 under 10%, 25% used 1 under 10%, 23% used 4 under 10%, 13% used 3 under 10%, 8% used 5 under 10%, and 3% used 0 under 10%. Total over 11 like sized slates is 32% used 2 under 10%, 27% used 4 under 10%, 18% used 3 under 10%, 18% used 1 under 10%, and 5% used 0 under 10%. 

Salary – Salary used yesterday was $49,600 in both winning lineups.  Total over 20 slates – $50,000 salary used in 48%, $49,900 salary used in 28%, $49,800 salary used in 13%, $49,600 used in 8%, $49,300 used in 3%, $49,000 used in 3%.  At least a $49,800 salary was used 88% of the time in the 18 slates.  Total over 11 like sized slates – 91% of the time salary in the 9 like sized slates was $49,800 or over.    

That is our look at last night and the season. Tonight, we have a 5 game slate.  To look at trends for like sized slates for tonight, all you have to do is look for the like sized slates in this article!

If you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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