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NBA DFS Lineup Study 3/31/2022

NBA DFS

Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Today is Day 22 of NBA Lineup Study.  Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-nba channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

Using our Study Hub is one of the best ways to easily play multiple sports.  Today, we are letting anyone use the NHL Study hub for free! https://teamriseorfall.com/nhl-dfs-study-hub/

For the NBA lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only.  Please note, last night DK’s 150 max was an $18 contest instead of the normal $15.  For like sized slates today, I compared the slates I have tracked in the 10 and over game range as last night was an 11 game slate.

Let’s get to the stats.

Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 13 players. 

Rating – 13 out of 13 players had a rating over 50.  Total over 22 slates is 86.75%.  Total over 6 like sized slates is 95.71%.  Rating – 12 out of 13 players had a rating over 60.  Total over 22 slates is 76.71%.  Total over 6 like sized slates is 91.43%.

Rise – With the Rise% stat formula recently being adjusted for the better, we have a smaller sample size than the other stat categories.  13 out of 13 players had a Rise% over 5%.  Total over 8 slates is 92.31%.  Total over 2 like sized slates is 95.83%.  10 out of 13 players had a Rise% over 10%.  Total over 8 slates is 78.02%.  Total over 2 like sized slates is 91.67%.  8 out of 13 players had a Rise% over 15%.  Total over 8 slates is 60.44%.  Total over 2 like sized slates is 62.50%.   

Ceiling/Target (+/-) – Another recently updated stat created to show the difference between a player’s ceiling and his Target (5x+10) score.  As with Rise, we have a smaller sample size here as well.  13 out of 13 players had a +/- above -3.  Total over 8 slates is 81.32%.  Total over 2 like sized slates is 95.83%.  7 out of 13 players had a +/- above 0.  Total over 8 slates is 56.04%.  Total over 2 like sized slates is 58.33%.

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

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A or B – 10 out of 13 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 22 slates is 80.32%.  Total over 6 like sized slates is 87.14%. 

Projected Value – 13 out of 13 players had a Projected Value over 4.5.  Total over 22 slates is 91.16%.  Total over 6 like sized slates is 97.14%.   Projected Value – 12 out of 13 players had a Projected Value over 5.0.  Total over 22 slates is 71.08%.  Total over 6 like sized slates is 84.29%.

Actual Minutes – 13 out of 13 players had Actual Minutes over 25.  Total over 22 slates is 92.37%.  Total over 6 like sized slates is 97.14%.  Actual Minutes – 10 out of 13 players had Actual Minutes over 30.  Total over 22 slates is 74.30%.  Total over 6 like sized slates is 84.29%

Ceiling – 12 out of 13 players had a Ceiling over 30.  Total over 22 slates is 84.74%.  Total over 6 like sized slates is 84.29%.  Ceiling – 8 out of 13 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 22 slates is 67.07%.  Total over 6 like sized slates is 68.57%.

Projection – 12 out of 13 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20.  Total over 22 slates is 88.76%.  Total over 6 like sized slates is 85.71%. Projection – 8 out of 13 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25.  Total over 22 slates is 72.69%.  Total over 6 like sized slates is 71.43%. Projection – 6 out of 13 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30.  Total over 22 slates is 51.41%.  Total over 6 like sized slates is 52.86%.

Utility – Yesterday winners both used a C eligible player in the utility position.  Total over 22 slates is 59% Center, 30% PG, 7% SG and 5% PF.  Total over 6 like sized slates is 67% C, 25% PG, and 8% PF.

Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a PG eligible player was used in both lineups at Guard and a PF eligible player was used at the Forward spot in the winning lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 82% of the time over 22 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 77% of the time at the Forward spot.  For like sized slates, the Guard spot is 83% PG while the Forward spot is 83% PF. 

Ownership – The winning lineups both used 4 players under 10% owned.  Total over 22 slates for number of players under 10% used – 32% used 2 under 10%, 25% used 4 under 10%, 23% used 1 under 10%, 11% used 3 under 10%, 7% used 5 under 10%, and 2% used 0 under 10%. Total over 6 like sized slates is 33% used 4 under 10%, 25% used 5 under 10%, 17% used 1 under 10%, 17% used 2 under 10%, and 8% used 3 under 10%. 

Salary – Salary used yesterday was $50,000 in both winning lineups.  Total over 22 slates – $50,000 salary used in 50%, $49,900 salary used in 25%, $49,800 salary used in 11%, $49,700 used in 2%, $49,600 used in 7%, $49,300 used in 2%, $49,000 used in 2%.  At least a $49,800 salary was used 86% of the time in the 22 slates.  Total over 6 like sized slates – 75% of the time salary in the 6 like sized slates was $49,800 or over.    

That is our look at last night and the season. Tonight, we have a 5 game slate.  To look at trends for like sized slates for tonight, all you have to do is click this link for the last lineup study I did with between 5 and 9 games for like sized slates.  https://teamriseorfall.com/nba-dfs-lineup-study-3-30-2022/

If you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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