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NBA DFS Lineup Study 4/1/2022

NBA DFS

Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Today is Day 23 of NBA Lineup Study.  Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-nba channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

Looking at the lineup study is one piece of the puzzle to DFS success, another is the TROF projections.  That is why today we are giving you the opportunity to use them for free!  Just go here before lock and download the projections and you can use the tools we are using to create better DFS lineups!  https://teamriseorfall.com/nba-dfs-projections/

Today’s thought is about like sized slates.  I realize that I cut the slates by small, mid-size, and large number of games per slate and that they could be even more broken down.  For instance, a 5 game slate might act different than a 9 game slate some nights, but most of the time the trends will be similar between the 5 game slates and the 9 game slates.  The reason I chose those slate sizes is because a 4 game slate acts very different than a 5 game slate when it comes to finding trends.  I say that because looking at last night, the 5 game slate was behaving more like a smaller slate than a mid-size slate which will happen from time to time.  Always remember, these are trends, not truths.

For the NBA lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only.  For like sized slates today, I compared the slates I have tracked in the 5 to 9 game range as last night was a 5 game slate.

Let’s get to the stats.

Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 12 players. 

Rating – 8 out of 12 players had a rating over 50.  Total over 23 slates is 85.82%.  Total over 13 like sized slates is 84.25%.  Rating – 8 out of 12 players had a rating over 60.  Total over 23 slates is 76.25%.  Total over 13 like sized slates is 72.60%.

Rise – With the Rise% stat formula recently being adjusted for the better, we have a smaller sample size than the other stat categories.  11 out of 12 players had a Rise% over 5%.  Total over 9 slates is 92.23%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 91.14%.  7 out of 12 players had a Rise% over 10%.  Total over 9 slates is 75.73%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 69.62%.  4 out of 12 players had a Rise% over 15%.  Total over 9 slates is 57.28%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 55.70%.   

Ceiling/Target (+/-) – Another recently updated stat created to show the difference between a player’s ceiling and his Target (5x+10) score.  As with Rise, we have a smaller sample size here as well.  8 out of 12 players had a +/- above -3.  Total over 9 slates is 79.61%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 74.68%.  4 out of 12 players had a +/- above 0.  Total over 9 slates is 53.40%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 51.90%.

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

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A or B – 7 out of 12 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 23 slates is 79.31%.  Total over 13 like sized slates is 78.77%. 

Projected Value – 10 out of 12 players had a Projected Value over 4.5.  Total over 23 slates is 90.80%.  Total over 13 like sized slates is 89.73%.   Projected Value – 7 out of 12 players had a Projected Value over 5.0.  Total over 23 slates is 70.50%.  Total over 13 like sized slates is 68.49%.

Actual Minutes – 11 out of 12 players had Actual Minutes over 25.  Total over 23 slates is 92.34%.  Total over 13 like sized slates is 93.15%.  Actual Minutes – 9 out of 12 players had Actual Minutes over 30.  Total over 23 slates is 74.33%.  Total over 13 like sized slates is 73.29%

Ceiling – 10 out of 12 players had a Ceiling over 30.  Total over 23 slates is 84.67%.  Total over 13 like sized slates is 86.30%.  Ceiling – 6 out of 12 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 23 slates is 66.28%.  Total over 13 like sized slates is 65.75%.

Projection – 10 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20.  Total over 23 slates is 88.51%.  Total over 13 like sized slates is 89.73%. Projection – 7 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25.  Total over 23 slates is 72.03%.  Total over 13 like sized slates is 72.60%. Projection – 6 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30.  Total over 23 slates is 51.34%.  Total over 13 like sized slates is 51.37%.

Utility – Yesterday winners both used a C eligible player in the utility position.  Total over 23 slates is 61% Center, 28% PG, 7% SG and 4% PF.  Total over 13 like sized slates is 65% C, 23% PG, 8% SG, and 4% PF.

Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a PG eligible player and an SG eligible player was used in the winning lineups at Guard and a PF eligible player was used at the Forward spot in both winning lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 80% of the time over 23 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 78% of the time at the Forward spot.  For like sized slates, the Guard spot is 88% PG while the Forward spot is 77% PF. 

Ownership – The winning lineups used 2 and 4 players under 10% owned respectively.  Total over 23 slates for number of players under 10% used – 33% used 2 under 10%, 26% used 4 under 10%, 22% used 1 under 10%, 11% used 3 under 10%, 7% used 5 under 10%, and 2% used 0 under 10%. Total over 13 like sized slates is 38% used 2 under 10%, 27% used 4 under 10%, 15% used 1 under 10%, 15% used 3 under 10%, and 4% used 0 under 10%. 

Salary – Salary used yesterday was $50,000 in both winning lineups.  Total over 23 slates – $50,000 salary used in 52%, $49,900 salary used in 24%, $49,800 salary used in 11%, $49,700 used in 2%, $49,600 used in 7%, $49,300 used in 2%, $49,000 used in 2%.  At least a $49,800 salary was used 87% of the time in the 23 slates.  Total over 13 like sized slates – 88% of the time salary in the 13 like sized slates was $49,800 or over.    

That is our look at last night and the season. Tonight, we have a 10 game slate.  To look at trends for like sized slates for tonight, all you have to do is click this link for the last lineup study I did with over 10 games for like sized slates.  https://teamriseorfall.com/nba-dfs-lineup-study-3-31-2022/

As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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