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NBA DFS Lineup Study 4/2/2022

NBA DFS

Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Today is Day 24 of NBA Lineup Study.  Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-nba channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

With the NBA season coming to an end, we want to give you the best opportunity to learn new DFS sports. This is why we are making the NHL Study hub free for today.  While you are looking around the website, I highly recommend reading Detroit Beastie’s Hot Pucking Stacks articles as well for his thoughts on some of the best NHL stacks for the night.   You can find the NHL Study Hub for free by clicking this link.  https://teamriseorfall.com/nhl-dfs-study-hub/

Today’s thought is about forgetting and forgiving.  All too often, I hear that someone isn’t playing a player because the last time they played them, the player didn’t perform how they should have.  I am here to tell you that if you play like this, you will miss that player when he does hit his ceiling.  Especially this time of year when players who may have had a bad year are getting new looks from their coaches, it is important to remember that what happened in the past doesn’t necessarily equal what will happen today.  Trust the numbers, trust the tools you are given, swallow your DFS pride and play the good plays.

For the NBA lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only.  For like sized slates today, I compared the slates I have tracked in the 10 and over game range as last night was a 10 game slate.

Let’s get to the stats.

Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 11 players. 

Rating – 11 out of 11 players had a rating over 50.  Total over 24 slates is 86.40%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 96.30%.  Rating – 10 out of 11 players had a rating over 60.  Total over 24 slates is 76.84%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 91.36%.

Rise – With the Rise% stat formula recently being adjusted for the better, we have a smaller sample size than the other stat categories.  10 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 5%.  Total over 10 slates is 92.11%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 94.29%.  10 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 10%.  Total over 10 slates is 77.19%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 91.43%.  9 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 15%.  Total over 10 slates is 59.65%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 68.57%.   

Ceiling/Target (+/-) – Another recently updated stat created to show the difference between a player’s ceiling and his Target (5x+10) score.  As with Rise, we have a smaller sample size here as well.  10 out of 11 players had a +/- above -3.  Total over 10 slates is 80.70%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 94.29%.  9 out of 11 players had a +/- above 0.  Total over 9 slates is 56.14%.  Total over 3 like sized slates is 65.71%.  BONUS – Over 3 Like sized slates, 10 and over, 51.43% of players had a +/- above 3.

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

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A or B – 11 out of 11 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 24 slates is 80.15%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 88.89%. 

Projected Value – 11 out of 11 players had a Projected Value over 4.5.  Total over 24 slates is 91.18%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 97.53%.   Projected Value – 10 out of 11 players had a Projected Value over 5.0.  Total over 24 slates is 71.32%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 85.19%.

Actual Minutes – 11 out of 11 players had Actual Minutes over 25.  Total over 24 slates is 92.65%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 97.53%.  Actual Minutes – 11 out of 11 players had Actual Minutes over 30.  Total over 24 slates is 75.37%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 86.42%

Ceiling – 10 out of 11 players had a Ceiling over 30.  Total over 24 slates is 84.93%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 85.19%.  Ceiling – 10 out of 11 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 24 slates is 67.28%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 71.60%.

Projection – 10 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20.  Total over 24 slates is 88.60%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 86.42%. Projection – 10 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25.  Total over 24 slates is 72.79%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 74.07%. Projection – 7 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30.  Total over 24 slates is 51.84%.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 54.32%.

Utility – Yesterday winners used a C eligible player and a PG eligible player in the utility position respectively.  Total over 24 slates is 60% Center, 29% PG, 6% SG and 4% PF.  Total over 7 like sized slates is 64% C, 29% PG, 7% PF.

Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a PG eligible player was used in both winning lineups at Guard and a PF eligible player was used at the Forward spot in both winning lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 81% of the time over 24 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 79% of the time at the Forward spot.  For like sized slates, the Guard spot is 86% PG while the Forward spot is 86% PF. 

Ownership – The winning lineups used 1 and 0 players under 10% owned respectively.  Total over 24 slates for number of players under 10% used – 31% used 2 under 10%, 25% used 4 under 10%, 23% used 1 under 10%, 10% used 3 under 10%, 6% used 5 under 10%, and 4% used 0 under 10%. Total over 7 like sized slates is 29% used 4 under 10%, 21% used 1 under 10%, 21% used 5 under 10%, 14% used 2 under 10%, 7% used 3 under 10%, and 7% used 0 under 10%. 

Salary – Salary used yesterday was $49,800 and $49,600 in the winning lineups.  Total over 24 slates – $50,000 salary used in 50%, $49,900 salary used in 23%, $49,800 salary used in 13%, $49,700 used in 2%, $49,600 used in 8%, $49,300 used in 2%, $49,000 used in 2%.  At least a $49,800 salary was used 86% of the time in the 23 slates.  Total over 7 like sized slates – 71% of the time salary in the 13 like sized slates was $49,800 or over.    

That is our look at last night and the season. Tonight, we have a 3 game slate.  To look at trends for like sized slates for tonight, all you have to do is click this link for the last lineup study I did with between 2 and 4 games for like sized slates.  https://teamriseorfall.com/nba-dfs-lineup-study-3-23-2022/

As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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