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NBA DFS Lineup Study 4/3/2022

NBA DFS

Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.

I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Today is Day 25 of NBA Lineup Study.  Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-nba channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

Sunday’s this time of year can be fun.  Sure we don’t have football, but we do have NASCAR, NBA and NHL today.  I invite you to look around the Team Rise or Fall website for all of the tools including Nate’s NASCAR article and everything the website has to offer for NASCAR, NBA, and NHL.  Nate’s NASCAR targets can be found here: https://teamriseorfall.com/toyota-owners-400-nascar-dfs-targets-richmond/ The Team Rise or Fall NHL homepage with Detroit Beastie’s articles can be found here: https://teamriseorfall.com/nhl-dfs/ and of course don’t forget to look around the site for all of the latest NBA projections and the DFS Hubs in all sports!

Today’s thought is how excited I was too learn that last night was a 3 game slate.  This is going to give us a great study to use as we get closer to the playoffs and then during the playoffs as most of the playoff slates are going to be around this size.  This will be a great way for us to get familiar with what the Team Rise or Fall metrics can do on a small slate and how we can use them.  Keep in mind, on a small slate we will most likely need to expand what we know from the larger slates and be more open to playing some players we wouldn’t play on a larger slate.

For the NBA lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only.  For like sized slates today, I compared the slates I have tracked in the 2 through 4 game range as last night was a 3 game slate.

Let’s get to the stats.

Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 12 players. 

Rating – 10 out of 12 players had a rating over 50.  Total over 25 slates is 86.27%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 80.70%.  Rating – 9 out of 12 players had a rating over 60.  Total over 25 slates is 76.76%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 66.67%.

Rise – With the Rise% stat formula recently being adjusted for the better, we have a smaller sample size than the other stat categories.  11 out of 12 players had a Rise% over 5%.  Total over 11 slates is 92.06%.  Total over 1 like sized slate is 91.67%.  6 out of 12 players had a Rise% over 10%.  Total over 11 slates is 74.60%.  Total over 1 like sized slate is 50%.  5 out of 12 players had a Rise% over 15%.  Total over 11 slates is 57.94%.  Total over 1 like sized slate is 41.67%.   

Ceiling/Target (+/-) – Another recently updated stat created to show the difference between a player’s ceiling and his Target (5x+10) score.  As with Rise, we have a smaller sample size here as well.  7 out of 12 players had a +/- above -3.  Total over 11 slates is 78.57%.  Total over 1 like sized slate is 58.33%.  5 out of 12 players had a +/- above 0.  Total over 11 slates is 54.76%.  Total over 1 like sized slate is 41.67%.

Last Nights winners and Study Hub

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A or B – 8 out of 12 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 25 slates is 79.58%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 68.42%. 

Projected Value – 12 out of 12 players had a Projected Value over 4.5.  Total over 25 slates is 91.55%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 87.72%.   Projected Value – 7 out of 12 players had a Projected Value over 5.0.  Total over 25 slates is 70.77%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 56.14%.

Actual Minutes – 9 out of 12 players had Actual Minutes over 25.  Total over 25 slates is 91.90%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 80.70%.  Actual Minutes – 7 out of 12 players had Actual Minutes over 30.  Total over 25 slates is 74.65%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 61.40%

Ceiling – 8 out of 12 players had a Ceiling over 30.  Total over 25 slates is 84.15%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 77.19%.  Ceiling – 7 out of 12 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 25 slates is 66.90%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 61.40%.

Projection – 10 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20.  Total over 25 slates is 88.38%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 87.72%. Projection – 7 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25.  Total over 25 slates is 72.18%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 68.42%. Projection – 6 out of 12 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30.  Total over 25 slates is 51.76%.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 49.12%.

Utility – Yesterday winners used a C eligible player and a PF eligible player in the utility position respectively.  Total over 25 slates is 60% Center, 28% PG, 6% SG and 6% PF.  Total over 5 like sized slates is 40% C, 40% PG, 10% PF, and 10% SG.

Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a PG eligible player was used in both winning lineups at Guard and a SF eligible player was used at the Forward spot in both winning lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 82% of the time over 25 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 76% of the time at the Forward spot.  For like sized slates, the Guard spot is 60% PG while the Forward spot is 60% PF. 

Ownership – The winning lineups both used 2 players under 10% owned.  Total over 25 slates for number of players under 10% used – 34% used 2 under 10%, 24% used 4 under 10%, 22% used 1 under 10%, 10% used 3 under 10%, 6% used 5 under 10%, and 4% used 0 under 10%. Total over 5 like sized slates is 50% used 2 under 10%, 40% used 1 under 10%, 10% used 4 under 10%. 

Salary – Salary used yesterday was $49,900 and $49,800 in the winning lineups.  Total over 25 slates – $50,000 salary used in 48%, $49,900 salary used in 24%, $49,800 salary used in 14%, $49,700 used in 2%, $49,600 used in 8%, $49,300 used in 2%, $49,000 used in 2%.  At least a $49,800 salary was used 86% of the time in the 25 slates.  Total over 5 like sized slates – 100% of the time salary in the 5 like sized slates was $49,800 or over.    

That is our look at last night and the season. Tonight, we have an 8 game slate.  To look at trends for like sized slates for tonight, all you have to do is click this link for the last lineup study I did with between 5 and 9 games for like sized slates.  https://teamriseorfall.com/nba-dfs-lineup-study-4-1-2022/

As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.

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