NBA DFS Lineup Study 4/4/2022
Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.
The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.
Make sure you’re in our Free Discord chat as myself and hundreds of our members discuss these strategies daily, also, if you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following all of the Rise or Fall social media accounts so you don’t miss any breaking news.
I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?
Today is Day 26 of NBA Lineup Study. Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-nba channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing. You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin
Since the NBA gave us a day off today, you have two choices, you can take the day off or you can play some NHL DFS tonight. We have made our NHL Study Hub free for everyone today to help you out with that! The NHL Study Hub can be found here https://teamriseorfall.com/nhl-dfs-study-hub/ . The Team Rise or Fall NHL homepage with Coaches cores and Detroit Beastie’s articles can be found here: https://teamriseorfall.com/nhl-dfs/. Also keep your eyes open this week as we have The Masters in Golf and Opening day in MLB to look forward to! Team Rise or Fall has you covered for those as well!
Today’s thought is an observation I noticed when putting together today’s study and it is something I have mentioned before. Just because we might see that 9 out of 11 players hit a metric and 2 out of 11 did not, doesn’t mean those 2 plays were outliers. Especially in the case of last night, we had Spurs value get added after lock which means if we would have had that information before lock, we probably would have seen 11 out of 11 instead of 9 out of 11 for those categories. As always, keep your eyes open for late news and adjust accordingly.
For the NBA lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only. For like sized slates today, I compared the slates I have tracked in the 5-9 game range as last night was an 8 game slate.
Let’s get to the stats.
Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 11 players.
Rating – 9 out of 11 players had a rating over 50. Total over 26 slates is 86.10%. Total over 14 like sized slates is 84.08%. Rating – 9 out of 11 players had a rating over 60. Total over 26 slates is 76.95%. Total over 14 like sized slates is 73.25%.
Rise – With the Rise% stat formula recently being adjusted for the better, we have a smaller sample size than the other stat categories. 9 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 5%. Total over 12 slates is 91.24%. Total over 8 like sized slate is 90.00%. 9 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 10%. Total over 12 slates is 75.18%. Total over 8 like sized slate is 71.11%. 7 out of 11 players had a Rise% over 15%. Total over 12 slates is 58.39%. Total over 8 like sized slate is 56.67%.
Ceiling/Target (+/-) – Another recently updated stat created to show the difference between a player’s ceiling and his Target (5x+10) score. As with Rise, we have a smaller sample size here as well. 9 out of 11 players had a +/- above -3. Total over 12 slates is 78.83%. Total over 8 like sized slate is 75.56%. 7 out of 11 players had a +/- above 0. Total over 12 slates is 55.47%. Total over 8 like sized slate is 53.33%.
Last Nights winners and Study Hub
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A or B – 7 out of 11 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B. Total over 26 slates is 78.98%. Total over 14 like sized slates is 77.71%.
Projected Value – 10 out of 11 players had a Projected Value over 4.5. Total over 26 slates is 91.53%. Total over 14 like sized slates is 89.81%. Projected Value – 8 out of 11 players had a Projected Value over 5.0. Total over 26 slates is 70.85%. Total over 14 like sized slates is 68.79%.
Actual Minutes – 11 out of 11 players had Actual Minutes over 25. Total over 26 slates is 92.20%. Total over 14 like sized slates is 93.63%. Actual Minutes – 9 out of 11 players had Actual Minutes over 30. Total over 26 slates is 74.92%. Total over 14 like sized slates is 73.89%
Ceiling – 8 out of 11 players had a Ceiling over 30. Total over 26 slates is 83.73%. Total over 14 like sized slates is 85.35%. Ceiling – 6 out of 11 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 26 slates is 66.44%. Total over 14 like sized slates is 64.97%.
Projection – 9 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20. Total over 26 slates is 88.14%. Total over 14 like sized slates is 89.17%. Projection – 6 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25. Total over 26 slates is 71.53%. Total over 14 like sized slates is 71.34%. Projection – 3 out of 11 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30. Total over 26 slates is 50.85%. Total over 14 like sized slates is 49.68%.
Utility – Yesterday both winners used a C eligible player in the utility position. Total over 26 slates is 62% Center, 27% PG, 6% SG and 6% PF. Total over 14 like sized slates is 68% C, 21% PG, 7% SG, and 4% PF.
Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a PG eligible player was used in both winning lineups at Guard and a PF eligible player was used at the Forward spot in both winning lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 83% of the time over 26 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 77% of the time at the Forward spot. For like sized slates, the Guard spot is 89% PG while the Forward spot is 79% PF.
Ownership – The winning lineups both used 2 players under 10% owned. Total over 26 slates for number of players under 10% used – 37% used 2 under 10%, 23% used 4 under 10%, 21% used 1 under 10%, 10% used 3 under 10%, 6% used 5 under 10%, and 4% used 0 under 10%. Total over 14 like sized slates is 43% used 2 under 10%, 25% used 4 under 10%, 14% used 1 under 10%, 14% used 3 under 10%, and 4% used 0 under 10%.
Salary – Salary used yesterday was $50,000 in both the winning lineups. Total over 26 slates – $50,000 salary used in 50%, $49,900 salary used in 23%, $49,800 salary used in 13%, $49,700 used in 2%, $49,600 used in 8%, $49,300 used in 2%, $49,000 used in 2%. At least a $49,800 salary was used 86% of the time in the 25 slates. Total over 14 like sized slates – 89% of the time salary in the 5 like sized slates was $49,800 or over.
That is our look at last night and the season. Tonight, we don’t have an NBA slate to look forward to, but tomorrow night is a 12 game slate. If you want to get started on studying for tomorrow night’s slate, and to look at trends for like sized slates for tomorrow, all you have to do is click this link for the last lineup study I did with 10+ games for like sized slates. https://teamriseorfall.com/nba-dfs-lineup-study-4-2-2022/ .
As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel. I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.
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