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NBA DFS Lineup Study 4/6/2022

NBA DFS

Welcome to today’s NBA DFS Lineup Study review article. In this article, we’re going to take a look at the NBA DFS winning lineups from the popular 20 max and 150 max tournaments on Draftkings.

The purpose of this review will be to identify roster construction trends that will help us make better lineup decisions as we construct our own lineups each day.

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I’ll be using Fantasy Cruncher to help me review each of these lineups. All of our Rise or Fall members save $20 per month on their Fantasy Cruncher subscription, so, if you’re not signed up yet, what are you waiting for?

Today is Day 27 of NBA Lineup Study.  Come join me in the Team Rise or Fall discord in the Ronin-nba channel if you have comments or questions or just want to talk about trends you are seeing.  You can also find me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/patkingpin

For the NBA lineup study, we are looking at the winners of the $15 150 max and the $4 20 max on Draftkings only.  For like sized slates today, I compared the slates I have tracked in the 10 and over game range as last night was a 12 game slate.

Who is excited about The Masters this week?  Team Rise or Fall has you covered not only with our amazing study hub, but our buddy Bo did a great article on what to expect for this week and who some of his targets are going to be.  You can click here to see his article. https://teamriseorfall.com/top-draftkings-pga-dfs-plays-for-the-masters-2022/ .  Also, as a Masters gift to the readers, we are offering 50% off of our website for new members, just use code: MASTERS at checkout and get 50% off of your first month today!  (That is even better than the $10 off you get with my own code!)

Today’s thought is something I have mentioned before but I feel is extra important as you read the lineup study today.  Late news changes NBA DFS slates.  There is no fancy way to say it.  When the Thunder come out and say we are playing some players, but we don’t know who and then after lock we get a starting lineup with players who don’t usually play, there is no way to know what that means.  Then the Thunder said, “hold my beer” and basically used a 6 man rotation last night and really turned the slate upside down.  In our discord we tried to update people the best we could, but it is up to us as players to break down after lock changes and use them to our advantage.  As we see in the study today, those who adapted to the news were rewarded for their efforts.

Let’s get to the stats.

Last night, the 2 winning lineups combined to use 8 players.  For the second time since the studies began, both of the winners used the same players in their lineups.

Rating – 4 out of 8 players had a rating over 50.  Total over 27 slates is 85.15%.  Total over 8 like sized slates is 92.13%.  Rating – 4 out of 8 players had a rating over 60.  Total over 27 slates is 76.24%.  Total over 8 like sized slates is 87.64%.

Rise – With the Rise% stat formula recently being adjusted for the better, we have a smaller sample size than the other stat categories.  5 out of 8 players had a Rise% over 5%.  Total over 13 slates is 89.66%.  Total over 4 like sized slate is 88.37%.  4 out of 8 players had a Rise% over 10%.  Total over 13 slates is 73.79%.  Total over 4 like sized slate is 83.72%.  4 out of 8 players had a Rise% over 15%.  Total over 13 slates is 57.93%.  Total over 4 like sized slate is 65.12%.

Ceiling/Target (+/-) – Another recently updated stat created to show the difference between a player’s ceiling and his Target (5x+10) score.  As with Rise, we have a smaller sample size here as well.  4 out of 8 players had a +/- above -3.  Total over 13 slates is 77.24%.  Total over 4 like sized slate is 86.05%.  4 out of 8 players had a +/- above 0.  Total over 13 slates is 55.17%.  Total over 4 like sized slate is 62.79%.

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A or B – 4 out of 8 players had a Projected Tier or Value Tier rating of A or B.  Total over 27 slates is 78.22%.  Total over 8 like sized slates is 85.39%.

Projected Value – 4 out of 8 players had a Projected Value over 4.5.  Total over 27 slates is 90.43%.  Total over 8 like sized slates is 93.26%.   Projected Value – 4 out of 8 players had a Projected Value over 5.0.  Total over 27 slates is 70.30%.  Total over 8 like sized slates is 82.02%.

Actual Minutes – 8 out of 8 players had Actual Minutes over 25.  Total over 27 slates is 92.41%.  Total over 8 like sized slates is 97.75%.  Actual Minutes – 6 out of 8 players had Actual Minutes over 30.  Total over 27 slates is 74.92%.  Total over 8 like sized slates is 85.39%

Ceiling – 4 out of 8 players had a Ceiling over 30.  Total over 27 slates is 82.84%.  Total over 8 like sized slates is 82.02%.  Ceiling – 4 out of 8 players had a Ceiling over 35. Total over 27 slates is 66.01%.  Total over 8 like sized slates is 69.66%.

Projection – 4 out of 8 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 20.  Total over 27 slates is 87.13%.  Total over 8 like sized slates is 83.15%. Projection – 4 out of 8 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 25.  Total over 27 slates is 70.96%.  Total over 8 like sized slates is 71.91%. Projection – 4 out of 8 players had a Projected Fantasy Score over 30.  Total over 27 slates is 50.83%.  Total over 8 like sized slates is 53.93%.

Utility – Yesterday both winners used a C eligible player in the utility position.  Total over 27 slates is 63% Center, 26% PG, 6% SG and 6% PF.  Total over 8 like sized slates is 69% C, 25% PG, and 6% PF.

Guard spot and Forward spot – Last night a PG eligible player was used in both winning lineups at Guard and a PF eligible player was used at the Forward spot in both winning lineups. Looking at trends, a PG eligible player has been used 83% of the time over 27 slates for the Guard spot while a PF eligible player has been used 78% of the time at the Forward spot.  For like sized slates, the Guard spot is 88% PG while the Forward spot is 88% PF.

Ownership – The winning lineups used 1 and 2 players under 10% owned respectively.  Even though both lineups were using the same players, different size tournaments have different ownerships.  The 150 max tournament winner only had 1 player under 10% while the 20 max winner had 2 players who ended up under 10%. Total over 27 slates for number of players under 10% used – 37% used 2 under 10%, 22% used 4 under 10%, 22% used 1 under 10%, 9% used 3 under 10%, 6% used 5 under 10%, and 4% used 0 under 10%. Total over 8 like sized slates is 25% used 1 under 10%, 25% used 4 under 10%, 19% used 2 under 10%, 19% used 5 under 10%, 6% used 3 under 10%, and 6% used 0 under 10%.

Salary – Salary used yesterday was $49,900 in both the winning lineups.  Total over 27 slates – $50,000 salary used in 48%, $49,900 salary used in 26%, $49,800 salary used in 13%, $49,700 used in 2%, $49,600 used in 7%, $49,300 used in 2%, $49,000 used in 2%.  At least a $49,800 salary was used 87% of the time in the 25 slates.  Total over 8 like sized slates – 75% of the time salary in the 5 like sized slates was $49,800 or over.

That is our look at last night and the season. Tonight, we have another exciting 6 game slate.  If you want to look at trends for like sized slates for tonight, all you have to do is click this link for the last lineup study I did with between 5 and 9 games for like sized slates.  You can find that by clicking this link https://teamriseorfall.com/nba-dfs-lineup-study-4-4-2022-2/ .

As always, if you want to discuss any of this, you can find me in TROF discord in the ronin-nba channel.  I am always looking for ways to improve the article or just to hear any feedback you might have.