Welcome to the Christmas Edition of the NBA DFS Risers Playbook for DraftKings and Fanduel! Every morning we will highlight standout Vegas total, pace up spots, notable injury news, and how I would attack the slate given the information we have in the morning. We have a 5 game slate so grab a cup of eggnog and let’s get into it!
Golden State Warriors @ Milwaukee Bucks O/U 232.5
The Warriors travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in a game where the Bucks are favored by 10. Draymond Green will miss this game which leads me to expect a ton of minutes from Eric Paschall and Juan Toscano-Anderson. Unless Steph Curry goes absolutely bananas, I expect Milwaukee to control this game.
It looks like Milwaukee will be at full strength for this one. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Donte DiVincenzo stand out to me in my first look. This is the highest total on the slate and should be relatively popular.
Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics O/U 228
Brooklyn was firing on all cylinders against Golden State in the opener but, face a tougher opponent in the Celtics. There are no notable injuries for Brooklyn so the rotation should be similar to Tuesday night. Kevin Durant looks to be underpriced, in my opinion, on FanDuel again. Along with Durant, Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert stand out in my first look.
The Celtics will be without Kemba Walker again for this one. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum both took over 20 shots in the opener and Jeff Teague took 15. I would expect more of the same but, look for Marcus Smart to take more than 3 shots in this one. I wouldn’t play more than two of these players in the same lineup.
Golden State Warriors– It’s no secret that the Buck’s pace has an impact on the implied total of this game. Milwaukee likes to run the floor which will lead to more opportunities for Golden State. If the Warriors are going to succeed, in my opinion, they will get good performances from Kelly Oubre, Andrew Wiggins, and James Wiseman. All three of these guys are priced in the mid-range on DraftKings and Wiseman is only $4,200 on FanDuel. Wiseman looks like a great play if you want to pay down at center on FanDuel.
Miami Heat– The Heat take on the Pelicans who were top 3 in pace a season ago. In my first look, the Heat look underpriced on both sites. I will be going to Duncan Robinson and Jimmy Butler in my cash games. Bam Adebayo is an awkward price on FanDuel which makes him more of a GPP play for me.
Boston Celtics– The Celtics take on a Brooklyn team that was top 10 in pace a season ago and ran the floor against Golden State on Tuesday. I’ll be mainly focusing on Tatum, Brown, and Teague on this slate. I’d be interested in Tristan Thompson or Daniel Theis if I knew which of the two was going to take the bulk of the minutes at center.
Kemba Walker– Walker is out of this game just as he was for the opener. I would expect Marcus Smart and Jeff Teague to be the main beneficiaries of his absence, Our NBA Depth Chart model has Teague as Walker’s backup. Teague took 15 shots in the opener.
Draymond Green– Green will be out of this game as he was in the opener. As I stated before, expect Eric Paschall and Juan Toscano-Anderson to get the bulk of the power forward minutes in Green’s absence. It would not surprise me if Golden State moved Oubre down to power forward and gave Kent Bazemore more minutes.
Kristaps Porzingis– Kristaps is out for the start of the season. Maxi Kleber saw 27 minutes in the opener with Kristaps on the shelf. I would expect more of the same in this one and Kleber could be a top value on the slate.
Anthony Davis– Davis gets a matchup against a Mavericks’ frontcourt that will be featuring Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell. I love this matchup for AD. He is expensive on both sites but, could be the pivot that propels you to the top of tournaments. Last season, Davis scored over 40 points in 3 of the 4 matchups against Dallas.
Kevin Durant– This is more of a FanDuel play but, he is in play on both sites for me. In my opinion, $8,500 is too cheap of a price on FanDuel to pass up. I’ll slot KD into power forward and won’t think twice about it. If this game stays close, I’m expecting a big scoring day from Durant.
Maxi Kleber– Kleber looks like a smash value to me at $3,500 on DraftKings. He is fine on FanDuel but, I probably won’t have him at a high volume. If we project Kleber for 27 minutes again, he could very well go for 8x value against the Lakers.
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