NBA DFS Top Value Plays for Saturday 02/04/23
NBA DFS Top Value Plays for Saturday 02/04/23
When it comes to finding value plays in tonight’s NBA DFS matchups, look no further than Houston Rockets’ Daishen Nix. Despite the Rockets struggling as the worst team in the league, Nix has been making the most of his playing time and opportunities. Over the past five games, he’s been given ample minutes and has consistently delivered solid fantasy performances. In his last three games, Nix has scored an average of 20.75 DKFP. He’s a strong value play for tonight’s game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, with a lower price tag on DraftKings and the potential for another 30+ minutes and double-digit shot attempts. Don’t overlook Nix as a valuable addition to your DFS lineup.
Another player to keep an eye on for value is SG Josh Christopher. In the absence of other key players, Christopher has been given a significant usage rate, reaching 25% over the past three games. Despite limited playing time, he’s been able to deliver solid performances, scoring 5.6x and 6.6x his salary in his last two games. With his low salary, Christopher is a risk worth taking in your lineup.
With the Mavericks having a tendency to rest their stars on Saturdays and the current injury situation, it’s a perfect opportunity to stack up on Mavericks players.
Josh Green: With Luka Doncic and Christian Wood out, Josh Green, along with SF Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,400) and SF/PF Reggie Bullock ($3,400), is expected to play north of 30 minutes, possibly even 40 minutes. Their usage rates will be at season-highs, making Green a great pick for this slate.
Jaden Hardy: With multiple players out, the Mavericks are expected to be the focus of the slate. This is a paced-up spot for the Mavericks, and Hardy is expected to see major minute and usage rate increases.
Dorian Finney-Smith: The Mavericks are short-handed, and this is a paced-up contest. In his last 10 games, Finney-Smith has averaged 25.6 DKFP across 34.2 MPG, with an average return of 6.2x. In his last four games, he has been the value pick of the night with returns of 7.1x, 3.9x, 7.9x, and 10x. With Luka Doncic out, Finney-Smith is expected to handle a large workload and is one of the top values on this slate.
Dwight Powell: Powell is expected to step into a playmaking role with multiple players out. Although he’s not a high-upside center, this is a paced-up contest, and the Warriors could rest players, making Powell a possible value pick. However, it’s important to note that Powell and the low capacity Mavericks have disappointed in the past.
These players are all expected to see major minute and usage rate increases, making them valuable picks for this slate.
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The Denver Nuggets and Atlanta Hawks are set to face off in an exciting matchup on Saturday. The Nuggets may be without some key players, but that could open up opportunities for some lesser-known players to step up and shine. Here are two players to consider targeting in your NBA DFS lineup.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a player to watch when the Nuggets are playing at home. With the road teams often struggling at the high altitude in Denver, KCP is usually given a boost in minutes and usage rate. This week, the Nuggets may be running thin with a crowded injury report, giving KCP an even better chance to shine. It’s always a safe bet to have KCP in your lineup when the Nuggets are playing at home.
Bruce Brown is quietly having a solid season, averaging 12.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.5 steals across 10 games. With six games under his belt with more than 25 DK points, Brown is a player to watch against the Hawks. The Hawks allow opponents to shoot an average of 47.6 percent from the field, making Brown an excellent choice for your NBA DFS lineup. Additionally, first-round pick and future star SG Christian Braun is worth considering as he is carving out a role on the team and could see a big boost in playing time on Saturday with a crowded injury report.
Drew Eubanks, will have a rest advantage as the Blazers play on the back-end of a back-to-back, but he played only 18 minutes in the last game due to foul trouble. As Eubanks has also gotten into foul trouble in the past, Trendon Watford ($3,000) may be a better option in the absence of Jusuf Nurkic. Watford has seen an increase in minutes in the past three games, with a notable performance of 34.25 DKFP in 30 minutes. If Eubanks can avoid foul trouble, he should reach 6x value, but if he struggles, Watford may be a better value play as a big man.
Trendon Watford, Portland Trail Blazers vs. Chicago Bulls, $3,000
Watford had a standout performance with 34.3 DK points in 30 minutes in the last game. He is expected to receive more playing time with Nurkic out and he faces a favorable matchup against the Bulls, who give up the ninth-most points per game to power forwards.
Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers vs. Chicago Bulls, $6,300
Simons has been playing exceptionally well, averaging 31 FD points while shooting 55.4 percent and 46.7 percent from beyond the arc in his last six games. He has exceeded 30 FD points in five of these games and has returned over 5x his current salary in 24 games overall. The Bulls have allowed 44.2 FD points to shooting guards in their last 15 games, making Simons an attractive option for the game.
Isaiah Stewart, had a strong outing in his last game, recording 39 DK points, and he is expected to see increased playing time while Marvin Bagley is out. Additionally, he has a favorable opportunity to add to his stats against the Suns, who give up the league’s eighth-most free throws per game.
Jalen Duren, has been having a standout rookie season and is currently in one of his most productive stretches, scoring between 24 and 53.5 FD points in his last six games. He has recorded over 30 FD points in four of those games, including 32.6 FD points in 32 minutes against the Hornets on Friday night. Despite this strong performance, Duren’s salary has decreased by $100 for this game against the Suns.
Phoenix has a tied for the 12th-highest offensive efficiency rating allowed to centers, which is 32.2, and they have allowed over 53 FD points to the center position in the last 15 games. Additionally, they give up the ninth-most points in the paint per road game, which is where 81.4 percent of Duren’s scoring comes from.
By following our advice, you’ll be well on your way to creating a winning DFS lineup for tonight’s NBA games. Remember, always keep an eye on player updates, injuries, and matchups before finalizing your lineup. Good luck, and happy DFS-ing!
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