It’s time for the NBA Weekly DFS Lineup Report for Draftkings. I’ll be focusing on the Draftkings main contest on the main slate every day from the previous week. The “main contest” is the $15 unless DK switches things up and offers a $20 contest or maybe even a special lower priced event like an $8 contest.
All of the information presented below comes via Fantasy Cruncher Pro and their Lineup Study and Rewind features. This is a must have tool if you’re being serious about DFS. You’ll have the ability to go back through years worth of data and analyze great players, or like I’ll be doing, specific contests. I really can’t recommend FC Pro enough.
Before I get to the goods I have to remind you to check out our Winners Page. We’re helping people crush on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft in both cash games and tournaments.
Here’s the 1st place entry in the $18 NBA $1M Fadeaway Special:
This was a two-game slate so the ownership we see in the lineup is going to be high. Seven out of eight players in the lineup were projected to be owned (pOwn) at 20% or higher. There were two players projected to score (pFPS) 40+ fantasy points and Donovan Mitchell would make it three if 39.87 is rounded up to 40.
As we’ve seen in the previous three weeks most winning lineups have at least two players pFPS of 40 or more. This holds true regardless of slate size.
Here’s the 1st place entry in the $8 NBA $500K Excellent 8’s:
This slate featured 10 games, and three players pOwn at 20% or more. Clint Capela came in at 19.9% pOwn so that could be considered a fourth player if we’re rounding up. There were two players pFPS of 40+ points.
We see that overall the build was chalk with low-owned players. There was no in between with four players owned below 3% and four players owned above 25%. There were no players priced 9k+ in the build.
Here’s the first place entry in the $15 NBA $500K Fadeaway:
This was a three-game slate that featured three players pFPS of 40+. It’s hard to call a lineup chalky when there’s only three games, but all of the players had a projected ownership of 9% or higher. Five of the players had a pOWN of 20% or more.
There was only one person in the lineup with a price of 9k+. This is another point that’s been pretty consistent: The winning lineups feature one player of 9k+. I know the January 20th lineup features no players of 9k+ or more so that’s why I used “pretty consistent” to cover me.
Here’s the 1st place entry in the $15 NBA $500K Fadeaway:
This was an eleven-game slate that featured only one player pFPS 40+. It was just one of those kind of nights.
The ownership was spread out due to 11 games on the slate so there was only one player pOwn of 20% or more. We can claim two pOwn of 20% or more if we round up Goran Dragic’s 19.7%.
Here’s the 1st place entry in the $15 NBA $450K Fadeaway:
This was a seven-game slate, and what stands out the most is that the salary used was $49,400. That’s the lowest salary we’ve seen takedown one of these tournaments over the last four weeks. It’s also the first time the salary came in below $49,600. More on this coming up a little later.
The lineup featured three players pFPS of 40+ points, three players pOwn of 20% or more, and one player priced at 9k or more. This is a pretty good baseline for building lineups on a larger slate.
Here’s the 1st place entry in the $15 NBA $300K Fadeaway:
This was a five-game slate that featured two players pFPS of 40+, and six players pOwn of 20% or more. It’s fair to call this a chalky build. If the chalk hits and then your low-owned players go off, you’re probably gonna be very happy at the end of the night.
There were two players priced at 9k or more in the lineup. For obvious reasons (Too expensive) we see at most 2 players priced at 9k or more in the lineups.
Here’s the 1st place entry in the $15 NBA $600K Fadeaway:
This was a 10-game slate, and the winning lineup featured two players pFPS of 40+ points. If you catch a guy like LeBron at sub-10% ownership and he drops 75 fantasy points, well congratulations. You’re probably smashing that slate.
10 games falls in the large slate category and we see two players pFPS of 40+, three players pOwn of 20%+, and two players priced at 9k+.
*Every winning lineup featured at least two teammates.
*Five out of seven lineups featured game stacks. The 2-1 stack (Two teammates and one opposing player) is the most popular stack.
*The winning lineup had a salary of $49,800 or more five out of seven days.
This is the fourth week of this series so not a huge sample size but enough for me to acknowledge a few things that stand out to me.
Over 28 contests the winning lineup used $50,000 in salary 14 times and $49,900 in salary six times. The salary used was $49,800 four times, $49,700 two times, $49,600 once and $49,400 once. Over the entire 28 contests the average salary was $49,893.
EVERY lineup over the 28 contests used at least two teammates. Nine of the 28 lineups featured three or more teammates. The average slate size for contests that used three or more teammates (Four being the most) was 5.77 games. This makes sense because fewer games means fewer options and bigger stacks become more viable.
Out of 28 contests, 22 of them featured a game stack (Using players from both teams in a game.)
The 2-1 stack was the most popular “main” stack and it showed up 12 times. The 1-1 stack showed up 16 times, but it was a secondary stack 14 of the 16 times.
That’s all from me for now. I’ll see you all in a week. Until then, LET’S GET THIS MONEY!
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