NBA Weekly DFS Lineup Report for DraftKings 1/19
It’s time for the NBA Weekly DFS Lineup Report for Draftkings. I’ll be focusing on the Draftkings main contest on the main slate every day from the previous week. The “main contest” is the $15 unless DK switches things up and offers a $20 contest or maybe even a special lower priced event like an $8 contest.
All of the information presented below comes via Fantasy Cruncher Pro and their Lineup Study and Rewind features. This is a must have tool if you’re being serious about DFS. You’ll have the ability to go back through years worth of data and analyze great players, or like I’ll be doing, specific contests. I really can’t recommend FC Pro enough.
Before I get to the goods I have to remind you to check out our Winners Page. We’re helping people crush on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft in both cash games and tournaments.
January 12, 2021
Here’s the 1st place entry in the $15 NBA $600K Fadeaway:
This was a six-game slate and six of the eight players in the lineup were projected to be owned (pOwn) 20% or more. There were to players projected to score (pFPS) 50+ fantasy points. I usually use 40 pFPS as my baseline so the same two players were above that mark.
January 13, 2021
Here’s the 1st place entry in the $18 NBA $600K Fadeaway:
This slate had seven games and featured three players pOwn 20% or more. There were three players pFPS above 40 fantasy points in this winning lineup. As we’ve seen in previous lineup reviews, and as we’ll continue to see here, there’s usually at least two players in the lineup projected for 40+ fantasy points.
January 14, 2021
Here’s the first place entry in the $15 NBA $500K Fadeaway:
There were five games on this slate and when you look at it you feel like “Why didn’t I win this night?” These were all players that were on the radar for the slate. It just comes down to hitting the right combination of players. There were two players pFPS 40+ in the lineup and only one player with a cost of 9k+.
January 15, 2021
Here’s the 1st place entry in the $15 NBA $550K Fadeaway:
This was a seven-game slate and I’ll call this one a victory for the folks that love contrarian lineups. There were three players pOwn 20% or more. By the time lock hit there were only two players at 20% ownership or more and I’m rounding up for one player. The lineup did feature three players projected for 40+ fantasy points.
January 16, 2021
Here’s the 1st place entry in the $15 NBA $400K Fadeaway:
This was a four-game slate and one of the more chalky victories from the past seven days. There were five players pOwn above 20%. You can see that three of the players in the lineup ended up north of 40% in ownership. There was one player above 9k in price, and one player projected for 40+ fantasy points, and they were both Damian Lillard.
January 17, 2021
Here’s the 1st place entry in the $15 NBA $400K Fadeaway:
This was a three-game slate, and the winning entry featured three players projected for 40+ fantasy points. There were six players pOwn for 20%+ so this was a chalky entry BUT it’s a three-game slate. That’s the way lineups will look when there’s such a small player pool to start with. The actual ownership of the lineup ended up at 222.1%.
January 18, 2021
Here’s the 1st place entry in the $15 NBA $450K Fadeaway:
This was a four-game slate (we’re really seeing Covid and the protocols wreak havoc on our slates) but it didn’t end up as chalky as you might imagine. Yes, there were five players that ended up owned at 20% or more. The remaining three players were all owned below 10%.
There were two players projected for 40+ fantasy points, and the same two players were priced at 9k+. I know we’re analyzing a small sample size each week, but some of these trends seem to continually pop up.
*Once again we see that every winning lineup featured at least two teammates. There were two lineups that featured more than two teammates out of the seven lineups that I reviewed.
*Mini game stacks continue to show up in the research. Some of it can be attributed to slate size but not all of it. Last week six out of eight lineups featured at least one game stack. The week before that five out of six lineups featured at least one game stack. As you can see above six out of seven weeks there was some type of game stack in the winning lineup.
The most common game stack is the 2-1 stack (Two players from one team, and one from their opponent) with 1-1 stacks being the second most popular.
*Four out of seven days saw the top lineup use the entire $50,000 salary. Four out of six lineups two weeks ago and four out of eight lineups last week used all of the $50,000 salary. Out of the 21 slates I’ve analyzed over the last three weeks there were only five winners (23.8%) that used $49,800 or less. The least amount of salary used over the 21 slates was $49,600.
Just like last week I want everyone to keep in mind that the information above is A) Based on a one week sample and B) Not a guarantee of what will happen in the future. I’m looking for trends or strategies like we used for the NFL Milly Maker Reports. Hopefully we stumble onto a nugget or two that we can use throughout the season.
So this is pretty obvious but use the majority of the allotted salary for your lineups. NBA DFS is the most consistent/predictable. The projections across the industry are pretty tight, and the sites do a pretty good job with pricing. The NFL and MLB feature more volatile situations so it’s possible leaving a $1,000 of salary unspent is a good play. I’ll never say never, but it’s highly unlikely that approach would lead to good entries for you.
This was a lot of fun. Let’s do it again in a week or so. Until then, LET’S GET THIS MONEY!
See ya in Discord,