Welcome to the New MLB DFS Lineup Weekly GPP Report for DraftKings. This will be a article similar to what we’ve done for the NFL and NBA. I’ll dive into some data to see if there are any trends or strategies we can use to our advantage in the 2021 MLB DFS season.
All of the information presented below comes via Fantasy Cruncher Pro and their Lineup Study and Rewind features. This is a must-have tool if you’re being serious about DFS. You’ll have the ability to go back through years worth of data and analyze great players, or like I’ll be doing specific contests. I really can’t recommend FC Pro enough.
If this is your first crack at constructing an MLB DFS lineup what you need to know first and foremost is that stacking is everything. It’s a lot like NFL DFS or NHL DFS where you want to have teammates working together, or correlated, so that you benefit more than once from a scoring event.
For instance, Mookie Betts leads off the game with a walk and your team receives two fantasy points (It should be three fantasy points because a base on balls and a single are the same thing but that’s for another day). Next up is Corey Seager who singles, scoring you three points and moving Betts to third base in the process. Now Justin Turner rips a ball in the gap for a double, Betts scores and Seager moves to third base. That’s five points for the Turner double, two points for the rbi, and another two points for the run scored. Your lineup just picked up 14 points with three swings of the bat.
DraftKings allows us to stack five hitters from the same team so imagine the situation above but with a Chris Taylor single and Cody Bellinger home run added to the mix. Your five players would’ve racked up more than 30 DraftKings points after one trip through the order.
Here’s an MLB DFS Lineup summary from spring training 2021 via Fantasy Cruncher:
Here’s an MLB DFS Lineup summary from September 2020 via Fantasy Cruncher:
Here’s an MLB DFS Lineup summary from June 2019 via Fantasy Cruncher:
Hopefully you noticed a trend here but it’s ok if you didn’t. I’ll go ahead and spell it out for you. Over three different seasons we see that stacking teams leads to winning MLB DFS lineups.
When you’re first starting out in MLB DFS your inclination is to grab the top hitter from this team and the top hitter from that team and oh yeah, another top hitter from another team, and on and on. And while you could get extremely lucky and have your collage of players all go off, it’s unlikely.
Something else that can be seen from the information above is the use of secondary stacks. There are a total of 57 lineups in the images above and 43 of them used a two or three man secondary stack to go with their main stack of three, four, or five.
There are different ways to handle the secondary stack, and at the time of this writing I don’t have a favorite approach. I’ve personally gone with the 5-3 stack approach for the majority of my time playing MLB DFS. The only time I switch things up is on a two or three game slate. There will be more on this in future DFS reports.
If you’re an experienced MLB DFS player there’s nothing that I’ve written here that you didn’t already know. That’s ok. I have to start at the beginning to make sure that the new players and experienced players are all working with the same information.
MLB DFS has a lot of components we have to consider in order to build winning lineups. There’s stacking but we want to use the right players within the stack. Using players in the top half of the order is more beneficial than stacking the bottom of the order hitters. Baseball can be crazy random too so there will absolutely be times when the bottom half of the order stack works. Overall we want more opportunities aka plate appearances and those will come from the top of the order.
Our secondary or mini stacks should still be correlated. There’s almost no chance of correlation if you use a player batting second and a player batting seventh in a two-man mini stack. You would need three or four other hitters to avoid making outs just to get a shot at correlation. Let’s not do that.
We want to target the right games for our stacks (Where the runs reside). You can be contrarian and stack a team facing an ace pitcher, but the numbers show that Vegas tends to know a thing or two and we can do well by tailing the game totals.
I’ll be breaking all of this down over the next couple of weeks leading up to Opening Day on April 1st. No this isn’t a joke.
That’s all from me for now. I’ll see you all in a week. Until then, LET’S GET THIS MONEY!
See ya in Discord,