Alright Team Rise or Fall fam it’s time for another MLB DFS Lineup Weekly GPP Report for DraftKings. This is another chapter in the series that hopes to help you improve your DFS game.
The NFL DFS reports helped us make money by identifying that about 75% of the time, quarterbacks in winning lineups came from games within the five highest implied totals on the slate. The NBA DFS report helped us see that a salary floor of $49,700 was a great starting point for building lineups.
Last week’s MLB DFS Lineup Weekly GPP Report focused on stacking. Building stacks is the most important aspect of winning at MLB DFS. Today I want to take a look at pitching/pitchers and lineup construction.
All of the information below comes from the Fantasy Cruncher Lineup Study and Lineup Rewind features. I say this all the time and it bears repeating again: You’re doing yourself a disservice if you’re A) Not using Fantasy Cruncher and B) Not using all of the tools Fantasy Cruncher makes available.
I took a look at 20 slates from May 20, 2021 through June 8, 2021 for the following information. We always have to keep in mind sample size before applying any data. Nothing that I write should be taken as gospel that you use to build your lineups, and then hop in the Team Rise or Fall Discord to flood the comments with “It didn’t work. I lost my money. You guys suck.” These are building blocks. I’m looking for something solid that we can rely on but it doesn’t mean everything I write is the end all be all. Ok, enough of that. Let’s get to the data.
The average salary for the 40 pitchers from the 20 slates I analyzed is 9.1K. Here’s how the salaries broke down for the 40 pitchers:
Some of this information is slate dependent. If there’s a six-game slate and we’re in the 4th or 5th spot in the pitcher rotations then the highest salaried pitcher might be in the 8K range. But for the most part we can see that the winning lineups are paying up at the pitcher spot (77.5% of pitchers had a salary of 8K or more.)
Vegas odds are a huge part of MLB DFS. We have to use the implied run totals to guide us to the top offenses. And we can also look at the odds of a team/pitcher winning. Fantasy Cruncher has the win percentage as one of their data points.
The average win percentage for the 40 pitchers I reviewed was 57.19%. That’s kind of a “No duh” moment. Of course pitchers that are expected to win show up more often than pitchers that are given a low probability of winning.
Here’s the breakdown of the win percentage ranges for pitchers for DraftKings MLB DFS:
You can see that 25% of pitchers came from the 40% and 30% ranges. That obviously means that 75% of pitchers in the winning lineups had a win percentage of 50% or greater. I don’t know about you but if something is working 75% of the time (IN A SMALL SAMPLE SIZE) then that’s probably something that I’m going to try to work to my advantage.
The most talked about aspect of DFS is ownership. It doesn’t matter if you’re talking with your buddies or listening to a tout, ownership ALWAYS comes up in the conversation.
I definitely think ownership is important from the aspect that I don’t want to have lineups that are exactly like a bunch of other contestants lineups. I’m not trying to share the top spot. I’ve never binked a $100,000 top prize but IF I did, I wouldn’t be thrilled if I’m splitting with other players. Fortunately for me (Us), MLB DFS allows us to use chalky players and still be unique at the same time.
The average ownership percentage for the 40 pitchers I reviewed is 36.41%. That means on average the winning lineups shared their pitchers with a little over a third of the field. This is what I meant by MLB DFS allows us to be chalky. It doesn’t matter if a lot of other people are on the same pitchers. We can get unique with out stacks while using the best pitching options.
There were 40 pitchers reviewed for this MLB DFS Weekly GPP Report and we can see that eight of them (20%) were in the 10% range or lower. On the other end of the spectrum we see that eight pitchers (20%) were in the 50% range or higher. That leaves us with 24 pitchers (60%) in the 20%-40% range.
Slate size does play a slight factor but it’s not nearly as big as I thought it would be before looking at the numbers. The highest owned pitcher from the 20 slates I reviewed was Gerrit Cole at 78.6% on a 12-game slate. A two-game slate saw Dylan Bundy come in at 49.3% ownership. Merrill Kelly was 6.4% owned on a four-game slate. Again, I wouldn’t worry too much about a pitcher’s ownership. Build the best lineup you can and go from there.
DraftKings gives us $50,000 in salary to play with when building our lineups. Is there a time when it’s best to pay up for bats and pay down for pitching? How do we know when to do that? Well, looking at the numbers suggest we can keep things fairly consistent.
The average percentage of salary used by the two pitchers relative to the $50,000 overall salary is 36% or $18,000. That means using two 9K studs is definitely a viable approach (Based on this small sample size).
The numbers show that 18 out of 20 slates (90%) the winning lineup allotted 30% or more of their salary to pitching. And 35% of the time 40% or more of the salary (Never 50% or greater) was used on pitching. It’s kind of like real life baseball: Pitching wins in the end.
If you’re looking at all of this and you’re like “Yo Eags, TL;DR” that’s cool. Here’s the cliff notes version:
*Pay up for pitching
*Don’t worry about a pitcher’s ownership
*Focus on pitchers that are expected to win
*Dedicate at least a third of the salary to pitching
*Win big and chip Eags off 10% (Please do not follow this one but if you must, please pay the 10% in Bitcoin)
Ok that’s everything for now. I’m looking forward to dropping some more information next week. Good luck to everyone!
The NFL season will be here faster than you think. It’s never too early to start getting ready for your drafts, and Team Rise or Fall has your back. Make sure to check out our Fantasy Football Draft Kit so you’re ready for the upcoming season. Want to win the big trophy and talk trash to all of your friends? Check out the Fantasy Football Draft Kit. Just love all things fantasy football? Check out the Fantasy Football Draft Kit. You won’t be disappointed and neither will your bankroll.
You must log in to post a comment.