Good day Team Rise or Fall members and future members alike. I’m back at it today with the MLB DFS Lineup Weekly GPP Report for FanDuel. This is another chapter in the series that hopes to help you improve your DFS game. I want you to get so good that you all tie for second while I sit alone in first place.
The NFL DFS reports helped us make money by identifying that about 75% of the time, quarterbacks in winning lineups came from games within the five highest implied totals on the slate. The NBA DFS report helped us see that a salary floor of $49,700 was a great starting point for building lineups.
So what will the MLB DFS report reveal to us? We’ll see. Today’s report is just to get our toes wet in the sea of information available to us from Fantasy Cruncher and their Lineup Study feature. If you’re not using Fantasy Cruncher to build lineups and to work on your game, you’re 100% doing it wrong.
Stacking is the key to MLB DFS. If you’re new to MLB DFS or DFS overall, stacking is using multiple players from the same team to create correlation in your lineups. In baseball that’s using multiple hitters so a guy gets on base, the next batter singles for runners on first and third, and then the next batter brings everybody home with a three-run homer. You just scored points for the guys on base and the batter, and you just made a huge leap up the standings.
I looked at the two weeks worth of contests on FanDuel from May 2 to May 15. FanDuel doesn’t release the same amount of information as DraftKings and they’re not as consistent either. Some days they have information for the nickel contests, sometimes the quarter, and sometimes the $4 or $5 or whatever they decide to charge. Regardless of contest or entry fee, all of the information to come is from the lineup that finished in first place.
*10 out of 14 lineups featured a four-man main stack
*4 out of 14 lineups featured a two-man main stack
FanDuel allows us to stack up to four players from the same team. It’s a small sample size but interesting to see that it was either four man stacks or two man stacks that took down tournaments. Poor little three man stacks got no love in this two week window. It’s pretty obvious that we should start with a four-man stack when constructing our lineups.
Fantasy Cruncher gives us the ability to customize our stacks with their “Gap” feature. Fantasy Cruncher explains the gap feature as:
“Use the max gap setting to restrict baseball hitting stacks and minimize the missing players in the allowed stacks. If the Max Gap is set to two players, that will allow up to two missing players in the stack.
Example: Batting orders 1-2-5-6 or 1-2-4-6 would both be valid stacks with two-player stacks. This will also use wrap around stacks, a 9-1-2-3 has 0 gaps.“
Here’s how the gap feature was used in the main stacks of winning lineups on FanDuel:
*4 out of 14 stacks featured a 3 gap main stack
*4 out of 14 stacks featured a 2 gap main stack
*3 out of 14 stacks featured a 1 gap main stack
*2 out of 14 stacks featured a 0 gap main stack
*1 out of 14 stacks featured a 4 gap main stack
If we’re combining the information from the stacks and gaps sections we see that the winners used a four-man stack with two or three gaps for the majority of the winning lineups. I usually use 1 gap in my FanDuel lineups but this information has me considering allowing 2 gaps. Three gaps have been successful but that seems to push the boundaries of correlation and I’m not interested in that.
We have our four-man main stacks based on the information above, but that’s not the only stacking we do in MLB DFS. We have our mini stacks or secondary stacks as well. These are smaller team stacks that we still want to correlate. Here’s how the winning players used mini stacks over this two week span:
*5 out of 14 lineups featured a three-man mini stack
*4 out of 14 lineups featured a two-man mini stack
*3 out of 14 lineups featured a four-man secondary stack
*2 out of 14 lineups featured no secondary stack
The gap feature is used for our mini stacks in the same way we use it for our main stacks. Here’s how the winners used gaps in their secondary stacks:
*6 out of 14 mini stacks featured a 1 gap secondary stack
*3 out of 14 mini stacks featured a 0 gap secondary stack
*2 out of 14 mini stacks featured a 3 gap secondary stack
*1 out of 14 mini stacks featured a 2 gap secondary stack
In NBA DFS we want to use a salary floor of $59,800 the majority of the time on FanDuel. The Weekly MLB DFS Report for DraftKings showed that the majority of winning lineups used $49,800 in salary. I wonder if we’ll find the same thing for FanDuel? The suspense is getting to me so here are the numbers:
*4 out of 14 lineups used $35,000 in salary
*4 out of 14 lineups used $34,900 in salary
*2 out of 14 lineups used $34,600 in salary
*1 out of 14 lineups used $34,700 in salary
*1 out of 14 lineups used $34,500 in salary
*1 out of 14 lineups used $32,900 in salary
*1 out of 14 lineups used $31,200 in salary
Based on the numbers above if we had set a salary floor of $34,500 there were only two times where we wouldn’t have claimed the top spot. And in a way, that’s not even true. I didn’t run the numbers for the optimal lineups for each slate so it’s possible a lineup with a salary of $34,900 could’ve been the best lineup those two times. Overall I feel that the 34.5K salary floor is safe. Again, this is only a two week sample across contests with a variety of entry fees.
If you’ve been playing MLB DFS for more than one season then you should know that stacking is the key to victory. Even though we know that there will still be a time when someone gets crazy lucky and takes down a tournament without stacking. It happens. That doesn’t mean we should move away from a method that has shown sustained success.
We can’t win at DFS every day. There are so many days when I’m happy to break even or to “only” lose $25. And there are days when the DFS Gods smile on me. That’s the nature of the game. What I’m hoping to achieve with this series is to help you, ahem, help US be profitable a little more often than we were before the series. Good luck to everyone. I can’t wait to see you all in second place.
The NFL season will be here faster than you think. It’s never too early to start getting ready for your drafts, and Team Rise or Fall has your back. Make sure to check out our Fantasy Football Draft Kit so you’re ready for the upcoming season. Want to win the big trophy and talk trash to all of your friends? Check out the Fantasy Football Draft Kit. Just love all things fantasy football? Check out the Fantasy Football Draft Kit. You won’t be disappointed and neither will your bankroll.